Mega plano orçamental foi promulgado por Trump

[D1as]

Oi Ulisses, bom ano!

Gostei muito desta entrevista. Tomei a liberdade de destacar as partes em que me senti mais identificado.

Provavelmente daqui a uns tempos tb darei importância às outras, mas neste momento as que mais me "tocaram" foram estas:

(...)Larry doesn't consider himself a technical analyst or a chartist. He thinks a lot about what other traders are thinking and trades accordingly(...)

(...)Oh, I don't know if I know that much, but I've lived through so many of these things. You can almost intuitively feel them because you've seen it enough. You know how to play the hand.

I want to know why I am doing something. I want some reason or rationale to be there. I look for a bias in the game, and then I try to work that bias. That doesn't mean there is no place for intuition.

Dan: So in your system development, you are looking for some underlying condition or reason for why the market is doing what it's doing.

Larry: Exactly. And it's not just moving averages or running numbers.(...)You can optimize that stuff to death. But I want some emotional pattern -- the relationship between interest rates and the stock market, commitments of traders and the stock market, etc. Stuff like that is really significant and has reason to it. Then you can bring technical stuff on top of it. But the technical stuff is late in the game.

I have to have something there other than a green line crossing a red line on a chart. There has to be some reason for this stuff.

Price is where you get paid. You never get paid with volume or time.

abraço

[Cem]

Amigo Ulisses:
Estava a ler esta entrevista e a pensar ao mesmo tempo no facto de ter inúmeros conceitos introduzidos no sistema do "Perdigueiro" que seguem muitos dos raciocínios do Larry Williams.
Convem não esquecer que este autêntico guru dos mercados, é um dos meus mentores da AT, já foi campeão mundial de traders profissionais há uma boa dúzia de anos atrás com a particularidade de ter batido o record mundial, que ainda hoje vigora, de ter transformado 10.000 dólares em dinheiro da conta real inicial em 1 de Janeiro na fabulosa quantia de 1.100.000 dólares (!!!) em 31 de Dezembro desse mesmo ano, quando terminou a competição!
A SEC ( a CMVM lá do sítio) não queria acreditar que tal fosse possível e passou a pente fino todas as trades efectuadas pelo Larry, foi à corretora da Robbins Cup confiscar todas as ordens para ver se descobria alguma tramoia de late ou inside trading, durante mais de meio ano para verificar como foi possível multiplicar o capital por 110 ao fim de 1 ano!
Um abraço e excelente 2004,
Cem

[Ulisses Pereira]

Aqui fica uma entrevista ao conhecido Larry Williams

"An Interview With a Trader's Trader"


By Dan Fitzpatrick
Special to RealMoney.com
01/05/2004 11:05 AM EST



"Last week I had the pleasure of chatting with Larry Williams, trader, author, educator and all-around great guy. He's been one of my unofficial mentors for the past several years. Larry doesn't consider himself a technical analyst or a chartist. He thinks a lot about what other traders are thinking and trades accordingly, looking at fundamental conditions. As usual, I learned a lot in my recent conversation with Larry, so I thought I'd share some of that with you.


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Dan: Larry, the last time I saw you in person was at a seminar you were teaching in San Diego. I remember it vividly, because it happened to be on one of those key reversal days when the S&P bottomed out at the end of a prolonged downtrend. You weren't even watching the market during the class, but after the market had closed, you took your charts, looked up and said, "This is good. That's a major buy signal on the S&P. I'm getting very long tomorrow." As it turned out, that day marked a major bottom in the summer of 2001.

Larry: Oh, I don't know if I know that much, but I've lived through so many of these things. You can almost intuitively feel them because you've seen it enough. You know how to play the hand.

Dan: Well, I finished reading your most recent book, The Right Stock at the Right Time, and it seems like you nailed it. Everything you said seems to be coming to pass. Money is rotating into value stocks, and dividends are back in vogue.

Larry: It's funny. That book was written in 2001. The publisher wouldn't publish it in 2002. They said that nobody would buy a bullish book. So it wasn't published until earlier this year.

Dan: What was the reaction from professionals?

Larry: One of the most telling reactions was from a guy who runs a major, major fund in Boston. His brother invested in my little hedge fund in October 2002. Well, this fund manager discouraged his brother because I was so bullish at the time. He said that there was just no way the market was going higher. Well, that turned out to be the low. That's just a great example of the psychology at that time, when everything was just so black and nobody could see a good future. And, you know, that will go to the other side of the equation, too, and everybody will think the market is going to shoot straight up. The market will pull back for a while.

Dan: I remember one year when Barron's had published its January review and could not find one bearish pundit. Of course, the following year was one of the worst in market history.

Larry: That's why sentiment indicators have been such a good tool over the years.

Dan: The Dow has outperformed the other averages on a relative basis. Do you expect that to continue into 2004?

Larry: That was one of the theses of the book: that value would prevail. But I suspect we'll have a pretty big top here soon, and then we'll go back into a buy point. I think we're close to -- or we've already seen -- the highs for some time now. I think we'll go down for the remainder of the year, and assuming that George Bush is ahead in the polls, you can buy 'em in October and hold on for all of 2005.

Dan: So you see the decennial, or 10-year, pattern staying intact?

Larry: Yes, that's the strongest of them all: 2004 should be choppy to down, and October should be where you can buy and hold on for a heck of a ride.

Dan: What about gold? Do you feel it will continue to be strong in 2004?

Larry: I am looking for a high in gold right here, right now. I want to take all the trend change signals. The commercials are very short. This leads me to think that the move is over for at least the first three months of the year.

Dan: You are more of a systems/quant-oriented trader, rather than a discretionary trader, correct?

Larry: I want to know why I am doing something. I want some reason or rationale to be there. I look for a bias in the game, and then I try to work that bias. That doesn't mean there is no place for intuition. But day in and day out, I'm trading off stuff I've traded before.

Dan: So in your system development, you are looking for some underlying condition or reason for why the market is doing what it's doing.

Larry: Exactly. And it's not just moving averages or running numbers. I gave up on that stuff in the '60s. You can optimize that stuff to death. But I want some emotional pattern -- the relationship between interest rates and the stock market, commitments of traders and the stock market, etc. Stuff like that is really significant and has reason to it. Then you can bring technical stuff on top of it. But the technical stuff is late in the game. The fundamentals come as the setup of the trade.

Dan: I'll trade off charts because I'm just a little guy, and I understand the cyclical nature of volatility. If I can correctly forecast the direction of the price move, I can simply get in the way of the big money, and then go along for the ride. But the big money doesn't have that luxury.
Larry: That's the advantage the little guy has, whether in the markets or in business. You can compete against a huge company because you can get in and out. Your start-up cost is minimal compared to theirs. But once you get size, it's hard to get out of your positions, so you had better be fundamentally in tune with something other than just a chart pattern. Charts don't move the markets; markets move the charts. What technicians are doing is trying to catch that wave. Even as a large trader, if I have 50 or 60 S&P's, or 1,000 bonds, I have to have something there other than a green line crossing a red line on a chart. There has to be some reason for this stuff.

Dan: The last time we talked, you really didn't have much use for volume data. Does that still hold true?

Larry: I'm still looking at it. One of the problems in the futures market is that I don't get the daily volume until a day and a half later. I've been able to make enough money without using it. Here's a perfect example. For the past 11 days, the market has been higher on lower volume. Classic sell signal! So what do you do? Three days up, seven days later we're still rallying. If you had shorted on that sell signal, you'd have been wrong. I haven't found it useful. That doesn't mean it isn't there. It's more about the weakness of Larry Williams than volume. I've spent a lot of time with it, but I can't figure it out.

Dan: Well, you prompted me to take a good hard look at its efficacy as an indicator. I still use it a lot in my work, but I am much more comfortable taking trades when volume is not "confirming" the trade.

Larry: Price is where you get paid. You never get paid with volume or time.

Dan: I understand you've developed an E-Mini trading system.

Larry: Yes, it's a pattern-based system, using a lot of things you already know, but they've been refined. Your readers should keep some things in mind if they are trading the E-Minis. For example, you've got to wait for the large contract to open. The early morning openings and the night session openings are meaningless -- you have to be very careful. The only open that counts is the Big Contract. So this system is automatic, and it's 94% accurate. I'll be teaching the specifics in some seminars in January and February.

Dan: What else will you be teaching?

Larry: I'll be teaching a trend-following indicator that's a refinement of the volatility work done by Welles Wilder and Gresham Northcott. I've made some changes and improvements to it to smooth it out. Just like everyone else, I'm working on a master trend indicator. It's a good approach, it's mechanical, so you don't have to be wondering what the trend is. I think the moving average approach to trends does not work as well as a volatility approach to trends. What is significant is the point that you define as the key point in the market. In their case, I think they used the highest high, or the highest close. I use some different points, so I'll be teaching that.

To capture trend, you have to be willing to give the market some space to breathe -- to dance around in. That's the trouble with the moving average. It doesn't care that the price is going sideways. The moving average keeps advancing day after day in a sideways range, so it gets chopped around quite a bit. That's the fallacy of a moving average. We want to stop that moving average from moving up as soon as we see we are in a trading range.

Dan: I've read about an index named "Blast Off." From the way you have described it to me, it seems to be based on the cyclical nature of volatility.

Larry: Yes, I've been working on a method of pinpointing when the market is likely to make an explosive move. So I'll be revealing that for the first time. It hasn't been shown before, and it's different from the work you have been doing using Bollinger Bands. It's a timing model. I can use fundamentals, conditions and various other things for direction. But this is volatility-based. I'm also working with a trading system where I capture both trend and antitrend. I use a combination of Wilder's RSI and my own Williams %R. See, you need trend for the long-term direction, and antitrend for the short-term direction. You've got to have both if you want to be successful. So I combine %R for the antitrend, and RSI for trend. What your readers need to know is that, regardless of what method they use -- mine or anyone else's -- they've got to look at multiple time frames if they want to be successful. One time frame just won't do it.

Dan: Larry, it was a pleasure to talk with you, and I appreciate your time. Good luck in 2004.

Larry: Thank you, Dan. "

(in www.realmoney.com)