Cramer: "Adding Up the Next Thousand Dow Points"
5 mensagens
|Página 1 de 1
Olá,
Deixo em anexo um gráfico do S&P500.
Creio que esta será a grande meta, e estou a crer que daqui não vamos passar. Acredito na continuação da tendencia ascendente e numa ida bem perto aos valores desta linha azul. Posto isto, acredito que a tendencia descendente voltará a dominar os mercados internacionais... e os restantes meses do presente ano.
Um abraço
Deixo em anexo um gráfico do S&P500.
Creio que esta será a grande meta, e estou a crer que daqui não vamos passar. Acredito na continuação da tendencia ascendente e numa ida bem perto aos valores desta linha azul. Posto isto, acredito que a tendencia descendente voltará a dominar os mercados internacionais... e os restantes meses do presente ano.
Um abraço
- Anexos
-
- spx20104.gif (26.48 KiB) Visualizado 464 vezes
-
Visitante
Por falar em Cramer....
Ulisses , por favor , o Cramer tem algum artigo em que refere estar short na SIRI?
Obrigado!!
A_A
Obrigado!!
A_A
-
Visitante
Cramer: "Adding Up the Next Thousand Dow Points"
"Adding Up the Next Thousand Dow Points"
By James J. Cramer
12/29/2003 09:00 AM EST
"If the Federal Reserve is telling the truth, if it sits on the sidelines or raises rates moderately, I think we will have, conservatively, a 1,000-point increase in the Dow in 2004. It might happen before the end of 2004; in fact, I think the high point of 2004 probably will come in October, when it becomes obvious that Bush is going to win in a landslide. But I think we'll get those points without a problem.
I don't get that idea by sticking my finger in the air. I get there by looking at the market from the bottom up, looking at the individual stocks. Like the last time I did this, when the market was appreciably lower, I was able to predict that Dow 10,000 was in the cards by year-end. Similarly, I feel that 11,300 is in the cards by October 2004 and that we actually could rally even higher if the Fed takes rates up only 150 basis points in 2004. I say "only" because I don't trust the Fed.
Here's what I see in the individual stocks that will take us to Dow 11,300:
Alcoa
On fire in 2004
Alcoa (AA:NYSE - commentary - research): This company should be on fire in 2004 as the demand from China keeps going and the worldwide economy just gets better and better. The company has done a massive amount of consolidating and should at last have some oligopolistic pricing that will enable it to earn $2.00 and sell for 20 times that. Price target: $40.
Altria
The dividend won't be a catch
Altria (MO:NYSE - commentary - research): I still don't understand how you can spend a fortune advertising that people shouldn't use your product and yet still boost your dividend and make your earnings. That said, I think the Fed will raise rates and the dividend won't be that much of a catch. I am betting that Altria makes $4.70 and you get a 12 multiple on that. Price target: $56. (Remember, these are all conservative projections that work out to about 11,400, but I think there will be more than that.)
American Express
Another good year
American Express (AXP:NYSE - commentary - research): This will be still another good year for this boring Dow stock that makes a little bit of money off everything. I still prefer InterActiveCorp (IACI:Nasdaq - commentary - research), which would, by the way, be bought by American Express if that company had any vision at all. Put a 20 multiple on American Express' $2.40 earnings power. Price target: $48. (Told you I was cautious.)
AT&T
Becoming a better takeover candidate
AT&T (T:NYSE - commentary - research): This pathetic equity is still doing what is necessary to delever and build up whatever businesses that are working. All it is really doing, of course, is making itself an even better takeover candidate. I think it can earn $2 and sell at 12 times earnings in 2004. Voice over Internet protocol is a threat to margins, even as it is proficient at VoIP. The company ought to make the greatest short-and-cover trade ever, though, by buying back AT&T Wireless (AWE:NYSE - commentary - research) and then packaging itself to be sold to some European behemoth or the inevitable SBC (SBC:NYSE - commentary - research). Price target: $24.
Boeing
Estimates are too low
Boeing (BA:NYSE - commentary - research): This stock is telling you that we are in year one of one of those multiyear Boeing cycles where the stock can't be stopped, no matter how many people are fired or resign in disgrace. I think estimates are too low and this horse can run at $3.25. People will pay a multiple of 15 for it, so get ready for a quick $7 up from here. Price target: $48.
Caterpillar
Headed upward
Caterpillar (CAT:NYSE - commentary - research): Does this stock tell you where it is going every day or do you still need a road map? It will earn $5.00 and people will pay 20 times for that, yielding $100, because inventories are lean, the dollar is low and China calls.
Citigroup
Will still see upside
Citigroup (C:NYSE - commentary - research): Can't be in love with the banks during a tightening year, just can't. Still, there will be upside, and I am pegging it at $3.60 in earnings and betting that people will pay 15 times for that, taking the stock up to my price target: $54.
Coca-Cola
Looks like a laggard
Coca-Cola (KO:NYSE - commentary - research): Look, I still think that if Warren Buffett didn't own this stock, it would be appreciably lower. There's no real growth here, just big profit margins and big buybacks. I don't look to it to do anything but be a laggard, especially because you don't get multiple expansion on this dog until year two of a tightening. I think Coca-Cola can earn $2.10, and you will pay 25 times for that. Price target: $52.50.
Disney
A wild card
Disney (DIS:NYSE - commentary - research): This one's a wild card. If Michael Eisner decides to go to work as a missionary for some good cause in a far-off country, this stock will be at $30 in a heartbeat. Otherwise it will earn $1 -- that could be a stretch, given how bad its ABC network is -- and you will pay a wild 26 times for it, betting that in 2005 Eisner might see the light and go rescue wild animals in the rain forest. Price target: $26 with Eisner, no more than that.
DuPont
Won't get a big boost
DuPont (DD:NYSE - commentary - research): It's hard to figure out how cyclical this company really is. Because of that, it lacks the big boost that we could see from a Dow Chemical (DOW:NYSE - commentary - research) in 2004. I think that DuPont will earn a not-so-hefty $2.50 and that people will pay $20 for it. A share price of $50 is better than a sharp stick in the eye.
Eastman Kodak
No real value here
Eastman Kodak (EK:NYSE - commentary - research): Alas, the gains in 2004 on the Dow will not all come from fair weather. Despite everyone's insistence that there is value here, I think not. The stock's buyers will get a real comeuppance as digital photography basically will Napster the profit out of these guys for good. I think Eastman Kodak is lucky if it earns $1.80. But people still will go nuts and pay 10 times for it, which takes the stock to $18. Wild card: The Dow Jones people might take Kodak out of the Dow 30 and add Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq - commentary - research) or eBay (EBAY:Nasdaq - commentary - research).
ExxonMobil
Least levered to crude price
ExxonMobil (XOM:NYSE - commentary - research): It's like watching paint dry, and it is the oil company least levered to the price of crude. That's the reason I wish, as with DuPont and Dow Chemical, that ChevronTexaco (CVX:NYSE - commentary - research) were in the DJIA and not ExxonMobil. That said, the company can earn $2.50 and trade at 17 times that, yielding $42. But I think that of all my projections, this probably is the most conservative. Getting ExxonMobil to $45 really will help us get to 11,300.
General Electric
Multiple might rise as earnings fall
General Electric (GE:NYSE - commentary - research): Earnings go down, multiple goes up? That could happen as investors recognize that this company is now a health care and entertainment concern that deserves a heftier multiple. I think General Electric will earn $1.65 -- give or take a tenth of a penny. No surprises there. And I believe people will pay 22 times earnings for it, taking the stock to $36. Why not more? Because the spinoff of GE's financial assets will make people feel less good about paying a high multiple, given the one-times-book valuation of the financial spinoff.
General Motors
'The' eight-by-eight play
General Motors (GM:NYSE - commentary - research): You think you can stop Walter Payton, Jimmy Brown, Tony Dorsett, Priest Holmes and Ahman Green coming at you? You think you can derail that monster? GM is going to earn $8, and you will pay eight times that. This will be the eight-by-eight play that everyone will be talking about, and it will trade to $64. Bonus: At $64, it will be a monumental short because by that point, every analyst will be on board.
Hewlett-Packard
Ready to gallop
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ:NYSE - commentary - research): The "bash Carly" crowd is going to eat some crow this year even though Fiorina made that absurd prediction of three years of growth. Hewlett-Packard basically will wipe out Eastman Kodak (EK:NYSE - commentary - research) in the camera business and take on Dell (DELL:Nasdaq - commentary - research) for PCs. Get this: Fiorina & Co. will earn $1.60, and we will pay 20 times for this one. That's a gallop. All aboard to $32.
Home Depot
Tough to like
Home Depot (HD:NYSE - commentary - research): I like Lowe's (LOW:NYSE - commentary - research) more than Home Depot, and I don't like retail in the first year of a Federal Reserve tightening. That's why I think Home Depot will earn $2 but investors will be hard-pressed to pay 20 times for that. Maybe they'll pay 19 times. There's an outside chance for $40, but I probably am stretching it as much to the high side as I kept my target for ExxonMobil to the low side.
Honeywell
Challenged until 2005
Honeywell (HON:NYSE - commentary - research): I am being conservative, perhaps because I own it and don't want to toot its horn, but I think this company will remain earnings-challenged until 2005, when the aerospace cycle really kicks in. In 2004, Honeywell could earn $1.60 and investors might pay 22 times earnings for that, giving us a share price around $35. Again, I think I am being mega-conservative on this one.
IBM
Not levered enough to expansion
IBM (IBM:NYSE - commentary - research): It should be IBM's year in 2004 but it won't be. That's because this company simply doesn't seem able to get levered to the expansion as I thought it would. The company can earn $5, but paying more than 20 times earnings for it could be an impossibility. That means the share price gets to $100, which isn't all that far from here.
Intel
Capped in 2004
Intel (INTC:Nasdaq - commentary - research): The big, big move last year will cap 2004's move. I see Intel earning $1.35, but I don't see people paying more than 28 times that. That's because multiples will shrink in the coming year for the semiconductor companies. Still, we should see a respectable 8-point gain, which would take the stock to $38.
International Paper
Not cyclical enough
International Paper (IP:NYSE - commentary - research): After all the consolidation in this industry, 2004 should be this company's year. But still, International Paper lacks the cyclicality that I really am looking for, because it has worked hard to try to become a secular grower these last few years. How about 30 times $1.50, taking the stock to $45? I know, that's not that sexy, but neither is uncoated freesheet!
Johnson & Johnson
Watch for good gains
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ:NYSE - commentary - research): This company has its hands full with the amount of stent competition out there. But I think people will see the benefits of the Medicare package by this time next year, which will yield a substantially higher price for the pharma giant. I'll watch for investors to pay 22 times earnings of $2.70, which would take the stock to $59.
J.P. Morgan
Fed makes it tough to own
J.P. Morgan (JPM:NYSE - commentary - research): You don't want to own banks in the first year of a tightening cycle, period. I believe J.P. Morgan will remain unchanged in 2004, which is why I sold it from my Action Alerts PLUS portfolio. No one will pay more than 11 times earnings for a $3.25 earnings number, which could be difficult to pull off if we get multiple tightenings from the Fed.
McDonald's
The magic returns
McDonald's (MCD:NYSE - commentary - research): The magic will continue to return to this company in 2004. The "growth at any price" clowns will get broomed, and the quality, cleanliness and service mavens will continue to assert themselves. I see CEO Jim Cantalupo and company taking this stock to $37. That's on a 25 multiple with $1.50 earnings power.
Merck
Still no good
Merck (MRK:NYSE - commentary - research): OK, let's tell the truth: Merck's still no good. I think this company will spend the whole of 2004 defending its pipeline, and you still won't want to own it. Maybe it will make $3, but I don't think you'll pay more than 16 times earnings for that. That gives us $48.
Microsoft
The ultimate snail
Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq - commentary - research): Snails can't move fast, and this is the ultimate snail. Gotta call 'em as I see 'em. Microsoft could earn $1.25, and people will be reluctant to pay more than 25 times for that, putting the stock at $31. There's not much there, but it's not an atrocious return, and it should be enhanced by a nicer dividend.
3M
Will rise off weak dollar
3M (MMM:NYSE - commentary - research): What's not to like? The question is, "Can the stock be kept under $100?" That should be difficult, frankly. I see this company earning $3.50 off the weak dollar and people paying a minimum of 26 times earnings for that. That would take the stock to a minimum of $91 -- and probably much higher.
Procter & Gamble
Could gain late in 2004
Procter & Gamble (PG:NYSE - commentary - research): Nobody likes to own a Procter & Gamble in the second year of an economic expansion, although I think by the end of 2004, this one could go up while people begin to rotate out of the cyclicals. Let's say it earns $4.70 and that buyers pay 22 times those earnings. That puts the Cincinnati giant at $103.
SBC
Another Dow loser
SBC Communications (SBC:NYSE - commentary - research): Oops, another loser in the Dow. Let's say it will be lucky to earn $1.50 and you might be foolish enough to pay 15 times that, giving the stock a target of $22. Just don't like it. Cingular won't change things for the better.
United Technologies
May slide in 2004
United Technologies (UTX:NYSE - commentary - research): A lot of its move will have been captured before 2004 starts. In fact, I suspect this stock will be higher at the beginning of the year and then will move down from there. United Technologies can earn $5. I am being conservative with a 20 multiple; it wouldn't surprise me if at some time in 2004, people paid 25 times that $5 number. That's why my $100 target is, again, very conservative.
Wal-Mart
Will suffer from Fed
Wal-Mart (WMT:NYSE - commentary - research): Nope, can't own retail in the first year of a tightening. Look out, Wal-Mart once again will be a $55 stock. I get there by putting a 25 multiple on a $2.20 earnings number. Don't out-think this stock; it is not the right point in the cycle to own it, regardless of what the weekly numbers are -- in part because the weekly numbers will remain, well, weak.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Add up all my projected gains for the stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and you get a price north of 11,300, which gives me my thousand-point gain -- at a minimum.
Not bad, not bad at all. "
(in www.realmoney.com)
By James J. Cramer
12/29/2003 09:00 AM EST
"If the Federal Reserve is telling the truth, if it sits on the sidelines or raises rates moderately, I think we will have, conservatively, a 1,000-point increase in the Dow in 2004. It might happen before the end of 2004; in fact, I think the high point of 2004 probably will come in October, when it becomes obvious that Bush is going to win in a landslide. But I think we'll get those points without a problem.
I don't get that idea by sticking my finger in the air. I get there by looking at the market from the bottom up, looking at the individual stocks. Like the last time I did this, when the market was appreciably lower, I was able to predict that Dow 10,000 was in the cards by year-end. Similarly, I feel that 11,300 is in the cards by October 2004 and that we actually could rally even higher if the Fed takes rates up only 150 basis points in 2004. I say "only" because I don't trust the Fed.
Here's what I see in the individual stocks that will take us to Dow 11,300:
Alcoa
On fire in 2004
Alcoa (AA:NYSE - commentary - research): This company should be on fire in 2004 as the demand from China keeps going and the worldwide economy just gets better and better. The company has done a massive amount of consolidating and should at last have some oligopolistic pricing that will enable it to earn $2.00 and sell for 20 times that. Price target: $40.
Altria
The dividend won't be a catch
Altria (MO:NYSE - commentary - research): I still don't understand how you can spend a fortune advertising that people shouldn't use your product and yet still boost your dividend and make your earnings. That said, I think the Fed will raise rates and the dividend won't be that much of a catch. I am betting that Altria makes $4.70 and you get a 12 multiple on that. Price target: $56. (Remember, these are all conservative projections that work out to about 11,400, but I think there will be more than that.)
American Express
Another good year
American Express (AXP:NYSE - commentary - research): This will be still another good year for this boring Dow stock that makes a little bit of money off everything. I still prefer InterActiveCorp (IACI:Nasdaq - commentary - research), which would, by the way, be bought by American Express if that company had any vision at all. Put a 20 multiple on American Express' $2.40 earnings power. Price target: $48. (Told you I was cautious.)
AT&T
Becoming a better takeover candidate
AT&T (T:NYSE - commentary - research): This pathetic equity is still doing what is necessary to delever and build up whatever businesses that are working. All it is really doing, of course, is making itself an even better takeover candidate. I think it can earn $2 and sell at 12 times earnings in 2004. Voice over Internet protocol is a threat to margins, even as it is proficient at VoIP. The company ought to make the greatest short-and-cover trade ever, though, by buying back AT&T Wireless (AWE:NYSE - commentary - research) and then packaging itself to be sold to some European behemoth or the inevitable SBC (SBC:NYSE - commentary - research). Price target: $24.
Boeing
Estimates are too low
Boeing (BA:NYSE - commentary - research): This stock is telling you that we are in year one of one of those multiyear Boeing cycles where the stock can't be stopped, no matter how many people are fired or resign in disgrace. I think estimates are too low and this horse can run at $3.25. People will pay a multiple of 15 for it, so get ready for a quick $7 up from here. Price target: $48.
Caterpillar
Headed upward
Caterpillar (CAT:NYSE - commentary - research): Does this stock tell you where it is going every day or do you still need a road map? It will earn $5.00 and people will pay 20 times for that, yielding $100, because inventories are lean, the dollar is low and China calls.
Citigroup
Will still see upside
Citigroup (C:NYSE - commentary - research): Can't be in love with the banks during a tightening year, just can't. Still, there will be upside, and I am pegging it at $3.60 in earnings and betting that people will pay 15 times for that, taking the stock up to my price target: $54.
Coca-Cola
Looks like a laggard
Coca-Cola (KO:NYSE - commentary - research): Look, I still think that if Warren Buffett didn't own this stock, it would be appreciably lower. There's no real growth here, just big profit margins and big buybacks. I don't look to it to do anything but be a laggard, especially because you don't get multiple expansion on this dog until year two of a tightening. I think Coca-Cola can earn $2.10, and you will pay 25 times for that. Price target: $52.50.
Disney
A wild card
Disney (DIS:NYSE - commentary - research): This one's a wild card. If Michael Eisner decides to go to work as a missionary for some good cause in a far-off country, this stock will be at $30 in a heartbeat. Otherwise it will earn $1 -- that could be a stretch, given how bad its ABC network is -- and you will pay a wild 26 times for it, betting that in 2005 Eisner might see the light and go rescue wild animals in the rain forest. Price target: $26 with Eisner, no more than that.
DuPont
Won't get a big boost
DuPont (DD:NYSE - commentary - research): It's hard to figure out how cyclical this company really is. Because of that, it lacks the big boost that we could see from a Dow Chemical (DOW:NYSE - commentary - research) in 2004. I think that DuPont will earn a not-so-hefty $2.50 and that people will pay $20 for it. A share price of $50 is better than a sharp stick in the eye.
Eastman Kodak
No real value here
Eastman Kodak (EK:NYSE - commentary - research): Alas, the gains in 2004 on the Dow will not all come from fair weather. Despite everyone's insistence that there is value here, I think not. The stock's buyers will get a real comeuppance as digital photography basically will Napster the profit out of these guys for good. I think Eastman Kodak is lucky if it earns $1.80. But people still will go nuts and pay 10 times for it, which takes the stock to $18. Wild card: The Dow Jones people might take Kodak out of the Dow 30 and add Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq - commentary - research) or eBay (EBAY:Nasdaq - commentary - research).
ExxonMobil
Least levered to crude price
ExxonMobil (XOM:NYSE - commentary - research): It's like watching paint dry, and it is the oil company least levered to the price of crude. That's the reason I wish, as with DuPont and Dow Chemical, that ChevronTexaco (CVX:NYSE - commentary - research) were in the DJIA and not ExxonMobil. That said, the company can earn $2.50 and trade at 17 times that, yielding $42. But I think that of all my projections, this probably is the most conservative. Getting ExxonMobil to $45 really will help us get to 11,300.
General Electric
Multiple might rise as earnings fall
General Electric (GE:NYSE - commentary - research): Earnings go down, multiple goes up? That could happen as investors recognize that this company is now a health care and entertainment concern that deserves a heftier multiple. I think General Electric will earn $1.65 -- give or take a tenth of a penny. No surprises there. And I believe people will pay 22 times earnings for it, taking the stock to $36. Why not more? Because the spinoff of GE's financial assets will make people feel less good about paying a high multiple, given the one-times-book valuation of the financial spinoff.
General Motors
'The' eight-by-eight play
General Motors (GM:NYSE - commentary - research): You think you can stop Walter Payton, Jimmy Brown, Tony Dorsett, Priest Holmes and Ahman Green coming at you? You think you can derail that monster? GM is going to earn $8, and you will pay eight times that. This will be the eight-by-eight play that everyone will be talking about, and it will trade to $64. Bonus: At $64, it will be a monumental short because by that point, every analyst will be on board.
Hewlett-Packard
Ready to gallop
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ:NYSE - commentary - research): The "bash Carly" crowd is going to eat some crow this year even though Fiorina made that absurd prediction of three years of growth. Hewlett-Packard basically will wipe out Eastman Kodak (EK:NYSE - commentary - research) in the camera business and take on Dell (DELL:Nasdaq - commentary - research) for PCs. Get this: Fiorina & Co. will earn $1.60, and we will pay 20 times for this one. That's a gallop. All aboard to $32.
Home Depot
Tough to like
Home Depot (HD:NYSE - commentary - research): I like Lowe's (LOW:NYSE - commentary - research) more than Home Depot, and I don't like retail in the first year of a Federal Reserve tightening. That's why I think Home Depot will earn $2 but investors will be hard-pressed to pay 20 times for that. Maybe they'll pay 19 times. There's an outside chance for $40, but I probably am stretching it as much to the high side as I kept my target for ExxonMobil to the low side.
Honeywell
Challenged until 2005
Honeywell (HON:NYSE - commentary - research): I am being conservative, perhaps because I own it and don't want to toot its horn, but I think this company will remain earnings-challenged until 2005, when the aerospace cycle really kicks in. In 2004, Honeywell could earn $1.60 and investors might pay 22 times earnings for that, giving us a share price around $35. Again, I think I am being mega-conservative on this one.
IBM
Not levered enough to expansion
IBM (IBM:NYSE - commentary - research): It should be IBM's year in 2004 but it won't be. That's because this company simply doesn't seem able to get levered to the expansion as I thought it would. The company can earn $5, but paying more than 20 times earnings for it could be an impossibility. That means the share price gets to $100, which isn't all that far from here.
Intel
Capped in 2004
Intel (INTC:Nasdaq - commentary - research): The big, big move last year will cap 2004's move. I see Intel earning $1.35, but I don't see people paying more than 28 times that. That's because multiples will shrink in the coming year for the semiconductor companies. Still, we should see a respectable 8-point gain, which would take the stock to $38.
International Paper
Not cyclical enough
International Paper (IP:NYSE - commentary - research): After all the consolidation in this industry, 2004 should be this company's year. But still, International Paper lacks the cyclicality that I really am looking for, because it has worked hard to try to become a secular grower these last few years. How about 30 times $1.50, taking the stock to $45? I know, that's not that sexy, but neither is uncoated freesheet!
Johnson & Johnson
Watch for good gains
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ:NYSE - commentary - research): This company has its hands full with the amount of stent competition out there. But I think people will see the benefits of the Medicare package by this time next year, which will yield a substantially higher price for the pharma giant. I'll watch for investors to pay 22 times earnings of $2.70, which would take the stock to $59.
J.P. Morgan
Fed makes it tough to own
J.P. Morgan (JPM:NYSE - commentary - research): You don't want to own banks in the first year of a tightening cycle, period. I believe J.P. Morgan will remain unchanged in 2004, which is why I sold it from my Action Alerts PLUS portfolio. No one will pay more than 11 times earnings for a $3.25 earnings number, which could be difficult to pull off if we get multiple tightenings from the Fed.
McDonald's
The magic returns
McDonald's (MCD:NYSE - commentary - research): The magic will continue to return to this company in 2004. The "growth at any price" clowns will get broomed, and the quality, cleanliness and service mavens will continue to assert themselves. I see CEO Jim Cantalupo and company taking this stock to $37. That's on a 25 multiple with $1.50 earnings power.
Merck
Still no good
Merck (MRK:NYSE - commentary - research): OK, let's tell the truth: Merck's still no good. I think this company will spend the whole of 2004 defending its pipeline, and you still won't want to own it. Maybe it will make $3, but I don't think you'll pay more than 16 times earnings for that. That gives us $48.
Microsoft
The ultimate snail
Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq - commentary - research): Snails can't move fast, and this is the ultimate snail. Gotta call 'em as I see 'em. Microsoft could earn $1.25, and people will be reluctant to pay more than 25 times for that, putting the stock at $31. There's not much there, but it's not an atrocious return, and it should be enhanced by a nicer dividend.
3M
Will rise off weak dollar
3M (MMM:NYSE - commentary - research): What's not to like? The question is, "Can the stock be kept under $100?" That should be difficult, frankly. I see this company earning $3.50 off the weak dollar and people paying a minimum of 26 times earnings for that. That would take the stock to a minimum of $91 -- and probably much higher.
Procter & Gamble
Could gain late in 2004
Procter & Gamble (PG:NYSE - commentary - research): Nobody likes to own a Procter & Gamble in the second year of an economic expansion, although I think by the end of 2004, this one could go up while people begin to rotate out of the cyclicals. Let's say it earns $4.70 and that buyers pay 22 times those earnings. That puts the Cincinnati giant at $103.
SBC
Another Dow loser
SBC Communications (SBC:NYSE - commentary - research): Oops, another loser in the Dow. Let's say it will be lucky to earn $1.50 and you might be foolish enough to pay 15 times that, giving the stock a target of $22. Just don't like it. Cingular won't change things for the better.
United Technologies
May slide in 2004
United Technologies (UTX:NYSE - commentary - research): A lot of its move will have been captured before 2004 starts. In fact, I suspect this stock will be higher at the beginning of the year and then will move down from there. United Technologies can earn $5. I am being conservative with a 20 multiple; it wouldn't surprise me if at some time in 2004, people paid 25 times that $5 number. That's why my $100 target is, again, very conservative.
Wal-Mart
Will suffer from Fed
Wal-Mart (WMT:NYSE - commentary - research): Nope, can't own retail in the first year of a tightening. Look out, Wal-Mart once again will be a $55 stock. I get there by putting a 25 multiple on a $2.20 earnings number. Don't out-think this stock; it is not the right point in the cycle to own it, regardless of what the weekly numbers are -- in part because the weekly numbers will remain, well, weak.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Add up all my projected gains for the stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and you get a price north of 11,300, which gives me my thousand-point gain -- at a minimum.
Not bad, not bad at all. "
(in www.realmoney.com)
-
- Administrador Fórum
- Mensagens: 31013
- Registado: 29/10/2002 4:04
- Localização: Aveiro
5 mensagens
|Página 1 de 1
Quem está ligado: