O petróleo está em queda, mas a incerteza continua em alta

[Ulisses Pereira]

"While Fear Lurks, Wait for a Better Opportunity"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
9/18/2007 10:30 AM EDT

"Lurking fear department: Everyone has scaled back. Everyone has cut equity exposure. And we are about to begin the big run that we had in say, 1998, when the Fed started cutting and the Nasdaq jumped 110% the next year.

I don't know if this market can deliver that kind of punch. My big worry is that we are going to be more 1990 than 1998, and 1990 is the only one of the last few easing cycles where the financials did not work. (Good note on this issue from Bernstein this morning.)

You know this fear is palpable after Lehman (LEH - commentary - Cramer's Take) didn't blow up (I'm not saying it was good, I'm just saying it didn't blow up) and Best Buy (BBY - commentary - Cramer's Take) didn't blow up (again, I'm not saying it was good).

But these two stocks remind me that people could be leaning too short (I get that from a great Columnist Conversation post by Noah Blackstein about Best Buy) or could have too much cash with a small window if the Fed hits it out of the park.

Why aren't I more panicked to the upside? Because of 1990.

I genuinely believe that at worst, the Fed believes it has a 1998 situation on its hands and that rate cuts will work and that the issue is not having so many cuts as to propel a bubble.

I, on the other hand, believe that 1998 was discrete to one huge hedge fund, and when it was out of the picture you had a fabulous earnings and tech backdrop. But this debacle is widespread.

Back then, there was one hedge fund; now, there are millions of home buyers. That makes the current situation more like 1990, when there were lots of savings & loans and contractors pulling everything down. Monday it was E*Trade (ETFC - commentary - Cramer's Take) and NovaStar (NFI - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Bank of America (BAC - commentary - Cramer's Take). Today it is Impac Mortgage (IMH - commentary - Cramer's Take).

Against that? Hovnanian (HOV - commentary - Cramer's Take) sold a lot of homes, hopefully at not too big a loss, and the housing index (HGX) looks like it bottomed.

I am and always will be a guy who is more concerned about missing the upside. I feel some of that today.

But I am, again, willing to let it ride without me and wait for a better opportunity."

(in www.realmoney.com)