Trading ideas.
Re: Trading ideas.
ja vai esticada.....
e entao esta?
e entao esta?
- Anexos
-
- sc[6].png (19.78 KiB) Visualizado 17905 vezes
- Mensagens: 159
- Registado: 21/2/2008 22:23
!?Excelente post.
Doutro fórum, excelente post.
_______________________________________________________________________________
In order to profit from trading price and volume alone, one must forget nearly all of what he thought was true, and that presents an insurmountable obstacle to a great many people.
If, for example, one insists on focusing on how he can make it "work" with mathematically-derived indicators (stochastics, MACD, CCI, OBV, blah blah blah), then he blocks the process through which he would otherwise understand it and profit from it.
If he focuses on where and how to make mechanical entries and exits rather than understand the dynamics of demand and supply, then he blocks the process through which he would otherwise understand it and profit from it.
If he focuses on setups and patterns as gimmicks rather than as manifestations of changes in the balance of buying and selling pressure, then he blocks the process through which he would otherwise understand it and profit from it.
Hire yourself to do a job
The job is just to sit there and watch the bars form, to watch the buying and selling waves, the pokes and prods and feelers cast by buyers and sellers looking for a trade, not to create or test a strategy, not to make money, not to learn the "secrets" or the "tricks", just to develop a sensitivity to buying and selling pressure. No indicators, no MAs, no nothing but price bars/points and volume bars.
Make notes of what you see and what you think you see
Don't rush to draw conclusions. Throw away your crutches and focus on what the auction market is really all about. The market is not out to get you. The market is not out to trick you. Buying pressure is buying pressure. It lasts as long as it lasts according to who wants what. Ditto for selling pressure. Rather than focusing on avoiding getting screwed, focus on the pressures and the imbalances between them. Don't trade. Don't conclude. Just watch.
When you get tired, stop. Come back. Begin again. When you're done, review your notes. Look for those areas in which change took place. Formulate some hypotheses as to why those changes took place in those areas and not others. Don't force the Ah-Ha. Just let it come.
Begin with what appears to apply to whatever market you're trading. If it's in a trend, focus on retracements and continuations (a continuation being the logical result of a successful retracement). If it's in a trading range, focus on reversals. And so on. Develop the strategy thoroughly, with all the accompanying tactics. Test it. Learn it. Get comfortable with it.
Trade it
But understand always that whatever you're doing may not apply to every trading day. If you decide to focus on breakouts, for example, and the entire day is range-bound, then you're very likely going to have nothing to do. This is not your problem. Use the time for something else. But don't force trades. Don't see what isn't there (many novices fall into this trap when they've been working on reversals and insist on seeing reversal setups where none exist, e.g., on trend days). In time, you'll have a variety of strategies to cover most situations. But the key words here are "in time".
There is no inconsistency between tuning in to the buying/selling dynamic and defining setups with specific entry and exit points. A lower high, for example, says something about the balance of buying and selling pressure. Now at what point does the probability of a reversal become sufficiently higher than that of a continuation that the trader will go short instead of long (or vice-versa)? A drop of so many ticks? A break of a TL? A break of an MA of some sort (if he just has to use one)? And once one has determined that, how far does he allow the price to go against him -- if it does -- before he bails? And what is a reasonable target? And where is my pastrami on rye?
Changes in the balance between buying and selling pressure manifest themselves in recognizable and repeated ways, e.g., double bottoms, lower highs, bull/bear spikes (hammers et al,, if one is into that), but whether any of these are worth taking will depend on the context, what one wants, what one is willing to settle for, how much risk he's willing to assume, whether or not he's willing and ready to fade himself, etc. Sometimes the changes in balance are so rapid and so violent that the trader might think that only a loon would get involved. And sometimes the changes are so subtle and so quiet that waiting for the trade to resolve itself would put most people to sleep. Therefore, the trader has to decide under what conditions he's going to trade and during what portions of the day (or year) -- if not the entire day (or year) -- he's going to trade.
Which may be why so many beginners prefer just to buy when the green line crosses the red line and sell when the red line crosses the green line.
The degree to which one experiences anxiety before and during the trade is in direct inverse proportion to the amount of preparation he has done; in other words, the less prepared you are, the more anxious you will be (many people start the day anxious and stay that way until the final bell).
Trading according to buying and selling pressure entails looking for those areas which are most likely to attract attention and activity, which is why understanding the nature of support and resistance is important. Those areas where the most people traded the most shares/whatever in the past are most likely to ignite activity because all those people have something to gain or lose at those levels.
Again, there are several levels or areas or zones to look at, the most obvious of which are the previous day's (week's, month's, year's) high and low, and if one does nothing but sit idly by until those areas are tested, he will likely save himself a lot of money.
The opening high and low can also be a rich source of opportunity. I say "can" because one must also consider volume: if there's lots of activity, there's likely to be lots of opportunity. Targeting these opportunities in advance is simple. Sitting on your hands until the opportunities actually present themselves is considerably more difficult. But if one knows well in advance what he's going to do and where he's going to do it, and has some understanding of the nature of probability, he has nothing to be anxious about.
A good friend of mine, Julian Snyder, wrote a book for traders called The Way of the Hunter Warrior. Recently I asked him about the use of such a metaphor for trading, and he conceded that it's total nonsense in the light of what he now knows. "You have to trade without ego, and any contest elevates ego," he said.
I like to think of trading as sailing. Here you harness the forces that are there. You take into account the wind direction and velocity, the currents, and your destination. You've got your charts to guide you and you constantly adjust to nature's forces, sometimes pointing into the wind, sometimes running before the wind, sometimes tacking, but always in partnership with your boat, your crew, the wind, and the currents. Sure, storms can come up, but you can always let down the sail and anchor and wait out the storm. You work with the forces that are there, the forces that are much bigger than you, but you enjoy the journey, the day, the sport, and you're confident you can get to your destination, your port, your safe harbor.
Ruth Barrons Roosevelt
How Long Does It Take?
Realistically, how long do you think it would take a beginner to go through the steps you suggest to study the principles, tactics, and develop/test a trading plan and acquire the correct mindset?
I know this'll be variable, but from your experience what's the least amount of time someone has picked all this up in ?
It's been said before that it takes 1,000 hours to learn something, maybe 5,000-10,000 to master it.
What do you think, could a complete novice pick this up in 6 months spending around 8 hours a day ???
There are too many variables involved to provide anything approaching a satisfactory answer. If, for example, the novice were literally complete, had nothing to unlearn, had no preconceptions, was able to work without investing his ego in it, was curious, was able to concentrate, was reasonably intelligent, then he would be able to get it far faster than someone who was or had the opposite.
But if you're asking in your heart of hearts how long it would will should ought to take you to "pick this up", that depends on how willing you are to focus on application rather than theory (since you registered more than two years ago, you very likely have had more than enough theory).
Some members tire of my continually encouraging newcomers to this subject to open journals. But there's only so much theory. This thread, for example, has over 1000 posts (which is around 950 too many). The "theory" just isn't that complicated.
When it seems so, the reason is more likely that whoever is trying to understand it is focusing on something else entirely (so and so says, or I read somewhere that, or I took this seminar once that, or this book said, or but the ADX says). Therefore, the sooner one begins looking at real charts, the sooner he is likely to "get it".
This search for instructions as to where EXACTLY to draw the line is in large part what makes Pivots and Fib and Gann and MAs and so forth so seductive. One doesn't have to think about just where it is that price (traders) really react. All the trader has to do is draw the calculated lines. This search for exactitude also motivates the search for the EXACT stop and exact TYPE of stop that the trader should use, along with the EXACT trigger and the EXACT target. But if it were all that simple, one could package it into a kit and sell it (wait a minute . . . ).
Many people can't get this. Maybe most people can't get it. They simply cannot trade without indicators, they can't trade without patterns, they can't trade without candlesticks, etc. And if they make money doing whatever they're doing, who's to say they're not right to do it. However, a lot of people also struggle with all of that and can't make money at it. They find instead that focusing on price is best for them.
Unfortunately, by the time they reach that point, they have to unlearn an extraordinary amount of what for them is generally -- or entirely -- useless information (I've read that . . . People say that . . . I've been told that . . . ). This state of affairs makes learning to trade by price vastly more difficult than it would have been had the trader learned how to do it outright in the first place. But there's no going back, this side of amnesia, so wanting to is simply wishful thinking.
The Go With the Force, Luke stuff only goes so far, true as it may be. But the individual who's willing to backtrack and learn a new or at least different way of looking at charts and price action may -- not will -- find that when he's looking at his umpteenth chart, the light suddenly goes on and he understands all those back and forth pressures which are propelling price one way or the other. All the babble about pace and momentum and trend and chop and all the rest of it will make sense.
But there's no shortcut. One may have to look at hundreds of charts. Maybe thousands. And he may never get it. Which is why people continue to spend so much money on 4x Made Easy and Weekend Seminar (lunch included) and Profits R Us.
The average man does not like uncertainties. He is not trained to cope with them. He will try to “sweep them under the rug.” He will use any device that will make it possible for him to feel “more sure,” for he is not willing to accept a “maybe” or an “I don’t know” as an answer.
And so he will resort to averages, to market indicators, to complicated charts of intersecting lines designed to prove that “it” is either a Bull Market or a Bear Market. He will accept almost any kind of nonsense if it is stated with enough assurance. He will buy horoscopes to determine the trend of the market by the position of the planets. If all else fails, he will look for some authority who will relieve him of using his own intelligence, by making the either/or decisions for him. But he must have a straight, simple answer; otherwise it means nothing to him.
Do you see how this way of looking at things is out of line with the facts? Do you see how it leads, inevitably, to frustration, anxiety, and demoralization? It is asking too much of reality. It is setting up a make-believe world, and then crying if the world isn’t exactly like the make-believe.
We know, for instance, that trees “in general” are round. But you have seen tree trunks distorted by a cramped location, or by the trunks of adjacent trees, that are not round at all. It is useful to know that “tree trunks are round,” only so long as we understand that this is an abstraction, and the reality in any particular case has to be looked at, and if it is not round, that is that; the territory is the final answer, not our “map.”
John Magee
_______________________________________________________________________________
In order to profit from trading price and volume alone, one must forget nearly all of what he thought was true, and that presents an insurmountable obstacle to a great many people.
If, for example, one insists on focusing on how he can make it "work" with mathematically-derived indicators (stochastics, MACD, CCI, OBV, blah blah blah), then he blocks the process through which he would otherwise understand it and profit from it.
If he focuses on where and how to make mechanical entries and exits rather than understand the dynamics of demand and supply, then he blocks the process through which he would otherwise understand it and profit from it.
If he focuses on setups and patterns as gimmicks rather than as manifestations of changes in the balance of buying and selling pressure, then he blocks the process through which he would otherwise understand it and profit from it.
Hire yourself to do a job
The job is just to sit there and watch the bars form, to watch the buying and selling waves, the pokes and prods and feelers cast by buyers and sellers looking for a trade, not to create or test a strategy, not to make money, not to learn the "secrets" or the "tricks", just to develop a sensitivity to buying and selling pressure. No indicators, no MAs, no nothing but price bars/points and volume bars.
Make notes of what you see and what you think you see
Don't rush to draw conclusions. Throw away your crutches and focus on what the auction market is really all about. The market is not out to get you. The market is not out to trick you. Buying pressure is buying pressure. It lasts as long as it lasts according to who wants what. Ditto for selling pressure. Rather than focusing on avoiding getting screwed, focus on the pressures and the imbalances between them. Don't trade. Don't conclude. Just watch.
When you get tired, stop. Come back. Begin again. When you're done, review your notes. Look for those areas in which change took place. Formulate some hypotheses as to why those changes took place in those areas and not others. Don't force the Ah-Ha. Just let it come.
Begin with what appears to apply to whatever market you're trading. If it's in a trend, focus on retracements and continuations (a continuation being the logical result of a successful retracement). If it's in a trading range, focus on reversals. And so on. Develop the strategy thoroughly, with all the accompanying tactics. Test it. Learn it. Get comfortable with it.
Trade it
But understand always that whatever you're doing may not apply to every trading day. If you decide to focus on breakouts, for example, and the entire day is range-bound, then you're very likely going to have nothing to do. This is not your problem. Use the time for something else. But don't force trades. Don't see what isn't there (many novices fall into this trap when they've been working on reversals and insist on seeing reversal setups where none exist, e.g., on trend days). In time, you'll have a variety of strategies to cover most situations. But the key words here are "in time".
There is no inconsistency between tuning in to the buying/selling dynamic and defining setups with specific entry and exit points. A lower high, for example, says something about the balance of buying and selling pressure. Now at what point does the probability of a reversal become sufficiently higher than that of a continuation that the trader will go short instead of long (or vice-versa)? A drop of so many ticks? A break of a TL? A break of an MA of some sort (if he just has to use one)? And once one has determined that, how far does he allow the price to go against him -- if it does -- before he bails? And what is a reasonable target? And where is my pastrami on rye?
Changes in the balance between buying and selling pressure manifest themselves in recognizable and repeated ways, e.g., double bottoms, lower highs, bull/bear spikes (hammers et al,, if one is into that), but whether any of these are worth taking will depend on the context, what one wants, what one is willing to settle for, how much risk he's willing to assume, whether or not he's willing and ready to fade himself, etc. Sometimes the changes in balance are so rapid and so violent that the trader might think that only a loon would get involved. And sometimes the changes are so subtle and so quiet that waiting for the trade to resolve itself would put most people to sleep. Therefore, the trader has to decide under what conditions he's going to trade and during what portions of the day (or year) -- if not the entire day (or year) -- he's going to trade.
Which may be why so many beginners prefer just to buy when the green line crosses the red line and sell when the red line crosses the green line.
The degree to which one experiences anxiety before and during the trade is in direct inverse proportion to the amount of preparation he has done; in other words, the less prepared you are, the more anxious you will be (many people start the day anxious and stay that way until the final bell).
Trading according to buying and selling pressure entails looking for those areas which are most likely to attract attention and activity, which is why understanding the nature of support and resistance is important. Those areas where the most people traded the most shares/whatever in the past are most likely to ignite activity because all those people have something to gain or lose at those levels.
Again, there are several levels or areas or zones to look at, the most obvious of which are the previous day's (week's, month's, year's) high and low, and if one does nothing but sit idly by until those areas are tested, he will likely save himself a lot of money.
The opening high and low can also be a rich source of opportunity. I say "can" because one must also consider volume: if there's lots of activity, there's likely to be lots of opportunity. Targeting these opportunities in advance is simple. Sitting on your hands until the opportunities actually present themselves is considerably more difficult. But if one knows well in advance what he's going to do and where he's going to do it, and has some understanding of the nature of probability, he has nothing to be anxious about.
A good friend of mine, Julian Snyder, wrote a book for traders called The Way of the Hunter Warrior. Recently I asked him about the use of such a metaphor for trading, and he conceded that it's total nonsense in the light of what he now knows. "You have to trade without ego, and any contest elevates ego," he said.
I like to think of trading as sailing. Here you harness the forces that are there. You take into account the wind direction and velocity, the currents, and your destination. You've got your charts to guide you and you constantly adjust to nature's forces, sometimes pointing into the wind, sometimes running before the wind, sometimes tacking, but always in partnership with your boat, your crew, the wind, and the currents. Sure, storms can come up, but you can always let down the sail and anchor and wait out the storm. You work with the forces that are there, the forces that are much bigger than you, but you enjoy the journey, the day, the sport, and you're confident you can get to your destination, your port, your safe harbor.
Ruth Barrons Roosevelt
How Long Does It Take?
Realistically, how long do you think it would take a beginner to go through the steps you suggest to study the principles, tactics, and develop/test a trading plan and acquire the correct mindset?
I know this'll be variable, but from your experience what's the least amount of time someone has picked all this up in ?
It's been said before that it takes 1,000 hours to learn something, maybe 5,000-10,000 to master it.
What do you think, could a complete novice pick this up in 6 months spending around 8 hours a day ???
There are too many variables involved to provide anything approaching a satisfactory answer. If, for example, the novice were literally complete, had nothing to unlearn, had no preconceptions, was able to work without investing his ego in it, was curious, was able to concentrate, was reasonably intelligent, then he would be able to get it far faster than someone who was or had the opposite.
But if you're asking in your heart of hearts how long it would will should ought to take you to "pick this up", that depends on how willing you are to focus on application rather than theory (since you registered more than two years ago, you very likely have had more than enough theory).
Some members tire of my continually encouraging newcomers to this subject to open journals. But there's only so much theory. This thread, for example, has over 1000 posts (which is around 950 too many). The "theory" just isn't that complicated.
When it seems so, the reason is more likely that whoever is trying to understand it is focusing on something else entirely (so and so says, or I read somewhere that, or I took this seminar once that, or this book said, or but the ADX says). Therefore, the sooner one begins looking at real charts, the sooner he is likely to "get it".
This search for instructions as to where EXACTLY to draw the line is in large part what makes Pivots and Fib and Gann and MAs and so forth so seductive. One doesn't have to think about just where it is that price (traders) really react. All the trader has to do is draw the calculated lines. This search for exactitude also motivates the search for the EXACT stop and exact TYPE of stop that the trader should use, along with the EXACT trigger and the EXACT target. But if it were all that simple, one could package it into a kit and sell it (wait a minute . . . ).
Many people can't get this. Maybe most people can't get it. They simply cannot trade without indicators, they can't trade without patterns, they can't trade without candlesticks, etc. And if they make money doing whatever they're doing, who's to say they're not right to do it. However, a lot of people also struggle with all of that and can't make money at it. They find instead that focusing on price is best for them.
Unfortunately, by the time they reach that point, they have to unlearn an extraordinary amount of what for them is generally -- or entirely -- useless information (I've read that . . . People say that . . . I've been told that . . . ). This state of affairs makes learning to trade by price vastly more difficult than it would have been had the trader learned how to do it outright in the first place. But there's no going back, this side of amnesia, so wanting to is simply wishful thinking.
The Go With the Force, Luke stuff only goes so far, true as it may be. But the individual who's willing to backtrack and learn a new or at least different way of looking at charts and price action may -- not will -- find that when he's looking at his umpteenth chart, the light suddenly goes on and he understands all those back and forth pressures which are propelling price one way or the other. All the babble about pace and momentum and trend and chop and all the rest of it will make sense.
But there's no shortcut. One may have to look at hundreds of charts. Maybe thousands. And he may never get it. Which is why people continue to spend so much money on 4x Made Easy and Weekend Seminar (lunch included) and Profits R Us.
The average man does not like uncertainties. He is not trained to cope with them. He will try to “sweep them under the rug.” He will use any device that will make it possible for him to feel “more sure,” for he is not willing to accept a “maybe” or an “I don’t know” as an answer.
And so he will resort to averages, to market indicators, to complicated charts of intersecting lines designed to prove that “it” is either a Bull Market or a Bear Market. He will accept almost any kind of nonsense if it is stated with enough assurance. He will buy horoscopes to determine the trend of the market by the position of the planets. If all else fails, he will look for some authority who will relieve him of using his own intelligence, by making the either/or decisions for him. But he must have a straight, simple answer; otherwise it means nothing to him.
Do you see how this way of looking at things is out of line with the facts? Do you see how it leads, inevitably, to frustration, anxiety, and demoralization? It is asking too much of reality. It is setting up a make-believe world, and then crying if the world isn’t exactly like the make-believe.
We know, for instance, that trees “in general” are round. But you have seen tree trunks distorted by a cramped location, or by the trunks of adjacent trees, that are not round at all. It is useful to know that “tree trunks are round,” only so long as we understand that this is an abstraction, and the reality in any particular case has to be looked at, and if it is not round, that is that; the territory is the final answer, not our “map.”
John Magee
“Buy high, sell higher...”.
-
- Mensagens: 4199
- Registado: 1/5/2008 23:09
- Localização: Almada.
Uma ideia para amanhã.
ECTE, diário.
- Anexos
-
- ecte.png (18.6 KiB) Visualizado 17997 vezes
“Buy high, sell higher...”.
-
- Mensagens: 4199
- Registado: 1/5/2008 23:09
- Localização: Almada.
Re: Trading ideas.
.
Editado pela última vez por Turtle Trader em 15/12/2014 3:08, num total de 1 vez.
-
- Mensagens: 1188
- Registado: 10/7/2013 20:26
-
- Mensagens: 1188
- Registado: 10/7/2013 20:26
Re: Trading ideas.
A ITMN fez o breakout hoje. Está nos 11.05 agora. Coloco um gráfico mais tarde.
“Buy high, sell higher...”.
-
- Mensagens: 4199
- Registado: 1/5/2008 23:09
- Localização: Almada.
Re: Trading ideas.
HXM, double bot...
Diário.
Diário.
- Anexos
-
- hxm.png (18.78 KiB) Visualizado 18098 vezes
“Buy high, sell higher...”.
-
- Mensagens: 4199
- Registado: 1/5/2008 23:09
- Localização: Almada.
Re: Trading ideas.
ITMN, semanal.
Belo fundo...
Belo fundo...
- Anexos
-
- itmn.png (20.37 KiB) Visualizado 18099 vezes
“Buy high, sell higher...”.
-
- Mensagens: 4199
- Registado: 1/5/2008 23:09
- Localização: Almada.
Re: Trading ideas.
NIHD, diário
- Anexos
-
- nihd.png (22.42 KiB) Visualizado 18100 vezes
“Buy high, sell higher...”.
-
- Mensagens: 4199
- Registado: 1/5/2008 23:09
- Localização: Almada.
Re: Trading ideas.
rg7803 Escreveu:Está bonito sim senhora...!
Isso é sobre o forum ou sobre o gráfico...
FLOP - Fundamental Laws Of Profit
1. Mais vale perder um ganho que ganhar uma perda, a menos que se cumpra a Segunda Lei.
2. A expectativa de ganho deve superar a expectativa de perda, onde a expectativa mede a
__.amplitude média do ganho/perda contra a respectiva probabilidade.
3. A Primeira Lei não é mesmo necessária mas com Três Leis isto fica definitivamente mais giro.
-
- Administrador Fórum
- Mensagens: 38181
- Registado: 4/11/2002 22:16
- Localização: Gaia
-
- Mensagens: 4199
- Registado: 1/5/2008 23:09
- Localização: Almada.
Setup interessante.
GTXI, graf diário.
A zona dos 6.25-6.50 funcionou como suporte, tendo o preço dado um ressalto interessante.
Bão gosto muito do gráfico semanal, de qualquer forma é de observar a zona entre os 7.00-7.25.
A quebra desta zona pode levar o titulo a novos máximos.
A zona dos 6.25-6.50 funcionou como suporte, tendo o preço dado um ressalto interessante.
Bão gosto muito do gráfico semanal, de qualquer forma é de observar a zona entre os 7.00-7.25.
A quebra desta zona pode levar o titulo a novos máximos.
- Anexos
-
- gtxi.png (20.77 KiB) Visualizado 16214 vezes
“Buy high, sell higher...”.
-
- Mensagens: 4199
- Registado: 1/5/2008 23:09
- Localização: Almada.
Um bocadinho de teoria...
Neste tipo de trades, cujo contexto já expliquei uns posts atrás, não há um setup padrão que procure, porém com o tempo vamos desenvolvendo alguma experiencia na pesquisa de alguns sinais que fazem que consideremos o activo interessante ou não.
Normalmente uso o stockcharts para dar uma olhadela, pois é rápido, está online e é fácil de usar.
Dou sempre uma olhada rápida no gráfico semanal, para ver qual a tendência do título, e ver zonas de suporte/resistência.
Passo depois para o diário.
Eu valorizo bastante o comportamento do volume. Entendo que o volume é de certa forma o carburante que alimenta o movimento do título, seja nas subidas seja nas descidas.
Porém apercebi-me que a leitura do volume nem sempre é linear. Quando este aumenta significativamente indicia que algo está a acontecer, ou está para acontecer.
Porém a leitura nem sempre é fácil ou directa.
Os sinais mais simples de identificar são quando a meio da sessão um activo tem um movimento mais ou menos continuado de subida (descida) e o volume cresce de forma superior ao habitual. Nestes casos a leitura diz-nos que o movimento tem provavelmente pernas para continuar.
Porém casos há em que este cresce, o preço sobe um pouco durante a sessão, mas depois como que encontrando uma barreira natural mantém-se estável, continuando o volume em modo crescente. Nestes casos há que ter atenção pois um "esforço do mercado" não devidamente recompensado por uma subida/descida da cotação pode indiciar que a venda/compra está a superar a compra/venda.
Várias sessões com volumes "anormais" seguidas habitualmente indiciam uma de duas coisas: acumulação de papel ou distribuição de papel.
Qual é qual? Novamente a resposta não é linear, nestes casos convém observar o movimento anterior do activo.
Depois duma queda de algumas semanas um activo começa a fazer uma espécie de fundo, com volume maior do que o normal. Significa que está a ser feita acumulação de papel? Pode ser, mas pode ser que não...pode ser apenas mais uma nova fase de distribuição que anteceda novas quedas...
Pelo parágrafo anterior se depreende porque "trading breakouts" é uma maneira razoavelmente segura de fazer trading.
Por último uma coisa que me levou muito tempo a entender e a aceitar:
Se acreditam que um título vai continuar a subir/descer então comprem-no/vendam-no. Esqueçam-se do quanto já subiu/desceu!
Abraço.
Normalmente uso o stockcharts para dar uma olhadela, pois é rápido, está online e é fácil de usar.
Dou sempre uma olhada rápida no gráfico semanal, para ver qual a tendência do título, e ver zonas de suporte/resistência.
Passo depois para o diário.
Eu valorizo bastante o comportamento do volume. Entendo que o volume é de certa forma o carburante que alimenta o movimento do título, seja nas subidas seja nas descidas.
Porém apercebi-me que a leitura do volume nem sempre é linear. Quando este aumenta significativamente indicia que algo está a acontecer, ou está para acontecer.
Porém a leitura nem sempre é fácil ou directa.
Os sinais mais simples de identificar são quando a meio da sessão um activo tem um movimento mais ou menos continuado de subida (descida) e o volume cresce de forma superior ao habitual. Nestes casos a leitura diz-nos que o movimento tem provavelmente pernas para continuar.
Porém casos há em que este cresce, o preço sobe um pouco durante a sessão, mas depois como que encontrando uma barreira natural mantém-se estável, continuando o volume em modo crescente. Nestes casos há que ter atenção pois um "esforço do mercado" não devidamente recompensado por uma subida/descida da cotação pode indiciar que a venda/compra está a superar a compra/venda.
Várias sessões com volumes "anormais" seguidas habitualmente indiciam uma de duas coisas: acumulação de papel ou distribuição de papel.
Qual é qual? Novamente a resposta não é linear, nestes casos convém observar o movimento anterior do activo.
Depois duma queda de algumas semanas um activo começa a fazer uma espécie de fundo, com volume maior do que o normal. Significa que está a ser feita acumulação de papel? Pode ser, mas pode ser que não...pode ser apenas mais uma nova fase de distribuição que anteceda novas quedas...
Pelo parágrafo anterior se depreende porque "trading breakouts" é uma maneira razoavelmente segura de fazer trading.
Por último uma coisa que me levou muito tempo a entender e a aceitar:
Se acreditam que um título vai continuar a subir/descer então comprem-no/vendam-no. Esqueçam-se do quanto já subiu/desceu!
Abraço.
“Buy high, sell higher...”.
-
- Mensagens: 4199
- Registado: 1/5/2008 23:09
- Localização: Almada.
obrigado pelo teu comentário rg
apenas coloquei a questão pois a MA50 diário da KNDI está nos 5.0 e pode aguentar esta descida, tanto mais que o SP esta dar sinal bullish.
Outro que tenho seguido é a SUMR
abraço
apenas coloquei a questão pois a MA50 diário da KNDI está nos 5.0 e pode aguentar esta descida, tanto mais que o SP esta dar sinal bullish.
Outro que tenho seguido é a SUMR
abraço
- Anexos
-
- saumr.png (20.33 KiB) Visualizado 16329 vezes
- Mensagens: 159
- Registado: 21/2/2008 22:23
Entrei nesta solar hoje, a JASO, gostei do gráfico.
~
Nota: as solares movem-se em bloco se esta subir vejam tb as seguintes, pois pode haver alguma com movimento mais retardado, ou mais interessante.
FSLR, SPWR, TS, SOL, JKS, etc...
~
Nota: as solares movem-se em bloco se esta subir vejam tb as seguintes, pois pode haver alguma com movimento mais retardado, ou mais interessante.
FSLR, SPWR, TS, SOL, JKS, etc...
- Anexos
-
- jaso.png (19.77 KiB) Visualizado 16375 vezes
“Buy high, sell higher...”.
-
- Mensagens: 4199
- Registado: 1/5/2008 23:09
- Localização: Almada.
Re: Kndi
j_paulo Escreveu:E que tal a KNDI ??
será um trading arriscado?
Se esperares pelos 4 tem menos risco.
Nota este graf é semanal,e podes traçar uma linha suporte unindo os mínimos.
- Anexos
-
- kndi.png (19.96 KiB) Visualizado 16432 vezes
“Buy high, sell higher...”.
-
- Mensagens: 4199
- Registado: 1/5/2008 23:09
- Localização: Almada.
Vamos ver esta amanhã.
DGIT.
- Anexos
-
- dgit.png (19.59 KiB) Visualizado 16524 vezes
“Buy high, sell higher...”.
-
- Mensagens: 4199
- Registado: 1/5/2008 23:09
- Localização: Almada.
Re: Outra.
NGRO Escreveu:rg7803 Escreveu:O semanal da WLT está muito fixe tb. Fez esta semana uma log legged doji, acho que se chama assim pois já li o livro uns anos atrás, acompanhado com um volume bastante significativo. Pode ser que dê um ressalto porreiro nos próximos dias.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=WLT+ ... undefined;
Se olharmos para o porquê da queda penso que não é um risco aceitável. Existem de fato pessoas que investem apenas utilizando a análise técnica, desprezando qq outra info fundamental?
Olá!
Desculpa mas não percebi o teu comentário. Importas-te de elaborar um pouco mais?
Se o teu comentário é como julgo entender eis a minha opinião:
A queda aconteceu por uma única razão: menos interesse comprador, superado pelo interesse vendedor. Quando assim é seja o BCP, a AAPL, ou a SONAE o resultado é o mesmo, o preço desce.
Quanto ao uso de AT ou AF depende do que quero fazer. Se quero fazer investing a AF é muito útil. Para trades de algumas horas a uns dias, como é o tema deste tópico, a AF é completamente inútil.
Abraço.
“Buy high, sell higher...”.
-
- Mensagens: 4199
- Registado: 1/5/2008 23:09
- Localização: Almada.
Re: Outra.
rg7803 Escreveu:O semanal da WLT está muito fixe tb. Fez esta semana uma log legged doji, acho que se chama assim pois já li o livro uns anos atrás, acompanhado com um volume bastante significativo. Pode ser que dê um ressalto porreiro nos próximos dias.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=WLT+ ... undefined;
Se olharmos para o porquê da queda penso que não é um risco aceitável. Existem de fato pessoas que investem apenas utilizando a análise técnica, desprezando qq outra info fundamental?
- Mensagens: 138
- Registado: 29/11/2007 11:02
- Localização: KOIKUYJUT