- Não existiu capitulação apesar das quedas brutais do início do CoronaBear.png (133.76 KiB) Visualizado 11749 vezes
João D, continuo a achar que estamos em Bear market e que este é um forte rebound Bull mas não é um novo Bull market! Apenas Wallstreet está temporariamente desligada de Main Street!
As duas razões principais é que nesta coronacrise (lockdown com produção/consumo zerados), os
grandes investidores institucionais nunca entraram em pânico e manteve-se a lógica de os novos "setores defensivos" e social media leaders continuarem a ascensão aos céus, ou de terem quedas marginais (da Amazon à Netflix, da Microsoft à Alphabet, da Gilead à Immunogen). Para mim, o corolário de um Bear market é quando a destruição de capital atinge as Top performers e sector defensivo do Bull market anterior. Isso não aconteceu.
Contudo, respeito e muito, a opinião contrária da maioria, e aqui transcrevo alguns interessantes pontos da colunista Nigam Arora (no Marketwatch), colocando a Bold os pontos que tocam "na mouche".
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-i ... =home-page"Many investors believe the
stock market has gone bonkers, saying it has become totally divorced from the reality on Main Street. I agree that the stock market isn’t reflecting the economy.
1. The whole system is set up
for investors to buy stocks and keep them in stocks.2. The chart shows that, until last week, about 65% of the rise in the stock market was short-squeeze-related. There are several elements to this increase that all investors should become familiar with. These elements are described in detail in “The force that’s propelled the stock market rally will exhaust itself this week.”
3. Start out with the premise that even
if unemployment reaches 20%, then 80% of the people are still employed.4. A majority of the people who are losing their jobs earn less than average and work in service sectors.
They typically do not invest in the stock market, as they generally do not have the resources to invest. 5.
People who generally invest in the stock market still have their jobs. They are still contributing to their 401(k)s, which is creating buying.
6. The chart shows a sharp drop that touched the upper band of the
“mother of support zones” and a quick rebound to the bottom band of the resistance zone. History tells us that quick market moves do not change the behavior of investors, money managers and institutions alike.
7. History tells us that it takes prolonged pain to change human behavior. In the coronavirus crisis, the pain has not been prolonged for stock market investors.
8. There is considerable anecdotal evidence that
prudent investors have become very cautious, but they represent only a small part of the total. 9. Some prudent investors including money managers often have no choice but to hold their nose and buy stocks in a rising market. Many money managers are expected to beat their benchmark indexes. For them, falling too far behind is career suicide.
10. Many investors feel they have legitimate reasons to buy —
monetary stimulus, fiscal stimulus, pent-up demand and a potential cure and vaccine for the coronavirus. 11. In general, when a bad jobs report comes out, investors buy because they believe the overhang has been lifted.
- VIX Fear Index abaixo da MMS50 a volatilidade a desaparecer a confiança a regressar...cedo demais.png (79.46 KiB) Visualizado 11749 vezes
- S&P500 num teste importante à MMS50.png (40.85 KiB) Visualizado 11749 vezes
Enviado: 15/6/2020 8:41
