Cramer: "Negativity Creates Tough Sledding Here"
Enviado: 13/12/2007 14:17"Negativity Creates Tough Sledding Here"
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
12/13/2007 6:52 AM EST
"The presumption behind everything I read is that everyone is going to stop using and buying everything. Yet none of it is in the numbers.
That's right. Demand for everything from semiconductors and disk drives to cockpits and train brakes is collapsing. And none of it is in the numbers.
But when I look at the individual companies I don't see it.
Nevertheless the orthodoxy will be in full force today because of industrial production numbers from China that show some slowing. I am sure that will cause a new wave of trembling about copper and paper and coal and iron ore to join the reservations about everything else that is not being bought.
So what's my problem with this?
Actually it is multiple problems, like thinking that 3M (MMM - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) must be a short because of its worldwide product portfolio, when the business is great. Like thinking that AT&T (T - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) must be slowing because of Comcast's (CMCSA - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) slowdown, when it turns out that the problems are Comcast's. Like believing that Texas Instruments (TXN - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) can't be having a good quarter because of it all of its industrial exposure, when it prints great numbers. And on and on.
The thesis just often doesn't hold up to close scrutiny. And when I hear it does, I look more closely and it doesn't: like the case of Cisco (CSCO - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating). The more I look at what they have said in conference calls and interviews since the so-called disastrous quarter, the more I feel those comments were taken out of context. The "financial " slowdown doesn't exist, the worries about emerging markets haven't been able to be documented.
It's really hard to be bullish here. The financial assault is too great. The anti-implosion trade that Bob Marcin said could occur if the Fed does the right thing vanished in a poof because of the Fed's lack of rigor, even . I like Procter & Gamble (PG - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) and Pepsi (PEP - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) more than any of the stocks mentioned here. They don't get hurt in the trajectory outlined by the bears. They win.
But I wish I had more evidence to the contrary that stocks are cheap and factoring in a lot of negativity. I just don't, except, again, when it comes to the homebuilders, mortgage insurers and banks. "
(in www.realmoney.com)
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
12/13/2007 6:52 AM EST
"The presumption behind everything I read is that everyone is going to stop using and buying everything. Yet none of it is in the numbers.
That's right. Demand for everything from semiconductors and disk drives to cockpits and train brakes is collapsing. And none of it is in the numbers.
But when I look at the individual companies I don't see it.
Nevertheless the orthodoxy will be in full force today because of industrial production numbers from China that show some slowing. I am sure that will cause a new wave of trembling about copper and paper and coal and iron ore to join the reservations about everything else that is not being bought.
So what's my problem with this?
Actually it is multiple problems, like thinking that 3M (MMM - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) must be a short because of its worldwide product portfolio, when the business is great. Like thinking that AT&T (T - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) must be slowing because of Comcast's (CMCSA - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) slowdown, when it turns out that the problems are Comcast's. Like believing that Texas Instruments (TXN - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) can't be having a good quarter because of it all of its industrial exposure, when it prints great numbers. And on and on.
The thesis just often doesn't hold up to close scrutiny. And when I hear it does, I look more closely and it doesn't: like the case of Cisco (CSCO - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating). The more I look at what they have said in conference calls and interviews since the so-called disastrous quarter, the more I feel those comments were taken out of context. The "financial " slowdown doesn't exist, the worries about emerging markets haven't been able to be documented.
It's really hard to be bullish here. The financial assault is too great. The anti-implosion trade that Bob Marcin said could occur if the Fed does the right thing vanished in a poof because of the Fed's lack of rigor, even . I like Procter & Gamble (PG - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) and Pepsi (PEP - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) more than any of the stocks mentioned here. They don't get hurt in the trajectory outlined by the bears. They win.
But I wish I had more evidence to the contrary that stocks are cheap and factoring in a lot of negativity. I just don't, except, again, when it comes to the homebuilders, mortgage insurers and banks. "
(in www.realmoney.com)