CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

Ulisses,

Parece que o Cramer não acredita na derrocada e existe sempre o Big Brother para impedir que a economia dos USA se afunde.

De qualquer modo estamos em fim de ano e geralmente todos estão há espera de um Christmas Rally . Não quer dizer que acontecça, mas se a manada (de Touros, entenda-se) acreditar que a história se vai repetir então o melhor será seguir a manada ( ou será o Trend? ).


abraço.

Stock

É touro lindo...Olé!!! Olé!!!

"The Short Side Is the Wrong Side"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
12/7/2007 7:19 AM EST

When everyone is insolvent, no one is insolvent.

If you took all of the loans in the SIVs and the CDOs and you looked where they really reside, if you look at where all the second-liens reside, if you opened up the books to everything, what you would see is massive insolvency across the board.

And I am telling you to forget about it. When everyone is insolvent, no one is insolvent. Do you really think it matters? Do you think at this point that the government is going to let Fannie Mae (FNM - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) and Freddie Mac (FRE - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) fail? You think it has that choice? Can the monolines be left to fail? I don't even know if they will let Radian (RDN - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) fail, that's how dicey everything is.

People keep telling me "Read this guy to see how bad things really are," or "Did you see that article about how MBIA (MBI - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) is broke, or Washington Mutual (WM - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) is insolvent?" To which I say, no kidding.

I have been saying that for months. It doesn't matter, at a certain point bad is good, and we are at that point. We are at the point I was hoping to avoid, which is a massive bailout of the system because Ben Bernanke got it wrong and stopped cutting in October. Now we will have to spend hundreds of billions of dollars one way or another -- maybe through the implicit guarantee of FNM/FRE -- to make sure the system just doesn't' stop, choked on bad mortgage loans. We have to do that because someone at the Fed said "not this time, we are not going to take rates back down to where the problems began," and they had to, and they got it wrong.

But understand that insolvency is not bankruptcy as much as you wish it were if you were short Ambac (ABK - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) or MGIC (MTG - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating). The government stops it from happening.

That doesn't mean there will be no bankruptcies. It does mean it is time to recognize that they really did know nothing and now they have to do it the hard and expensive way, but they will save the system.

They did it just like this in 1990. They are going to do it now.

I reiterate that the short side is the wrong side. "

(in www.realmoney.com)