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Touro Escreveu:

You know you are a Permabull when……

* each time the market declines you declare it a “healthy pullback”
* sideways moves are actually just the market “taking a breather” or a “pause”
* missing earnings estimates is ok as long as management confirms next quarter’s guidance
* bad guidance is ok as long as last quarter’s earnings beat estimates
* you criticize any analyst that downgrades your stock from “Strong Buy” to “Buy”
* you applaud poor economic results as good for the market because this time they will cause the Fed to stop raising rates
* any negative market commentary is evidence of a huge “wall of worry” that the market needs to go higher
* you plead that a 10% decline is a “great buying opportunity”
* you blame any market decline on short sellers who just don’t understand
* oil declines to $60 and you expect that will cause the market to head higher
* oil increases towards $70 and you point out how the market has been able to absorb higher oil prices
* you quote the cliches “history repeats itself” for positive things and “it’s different this time” for negative ones
* an inverted yield curve doesn’t concern you at all……

www.hedgefolios.com

E acrescenta-se: ...when Abby Joseph Cohen is your favorite Market Guru.

You know you are a Permabull when……

* each time the market declines you declare it a “healthy pullback”
* sideways moves are actually just the market “taking a breather” or a “pause”
* missing earnings estimates is ok as long as management confirms next quarter’s guidance
* bad guidance is ok as long as last quarter’s earnings beat estimates
* you criticize any analyst that downgrades your stock from “Strong Buy” to “Buy”
* you applaud poor economic results as good for the market because this time they will cause the Fed to stop raising rates
* any negative market commentary is evidence of a huge “wall of worry” that the market needs to go higher
* you plead that a 10% decline is a “great buying opportunity”
* you blame any market decline on short sellers who just don’t understand
* oil declines to $60 and you expect that will cause the market to head higher
* oil increases towards $70 and you point out how the market has been able to absorb higher oil prices
* you quote the cliches “history repeats itself” for positive things and “it’s different this time” for negative ones
* an inverted yield curve doesn’t concern you at all……

www.hedgefolios.com

Analysts are bullish: should you care?
Posted Jan 2nd 2007 12:44PM by Zac Bissonnette
Filed under: SEC filings, Forecasts, Indices

According to a piece in today's New York Times, economists expect good but not great things for 2007. Merrill Lynch's Chief Investment Strategist Richard Bernstein projects a 12% rise in the S&P 500. Abby Cohen sees the S&P going up modestly, and UBS's David Bianco expects multiple expansion. Some economists worry about the Fed and others are concerned that investors are too bullish about GDP growth. But all in all, they are expecting it to be a good year.

The problem, according to investors like David Dreman, is that positive sentiment is often a contrarian indicator. In his book Contrarian Investment Strategies, he provides compelling data that show that even the best analysts and economists are often wrong -- and by a problematic amount.

So it may be wise to exercise caution in the face of bullishness. As Warren Buffet often says "The secret is to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." I hope the analysts are right, but I wouldn't be making investment decisions based on their predictions.

S&P 500 vai ganhar 14% até ao final de 2008


04/12/2007


Abby Joseph Cohen, estratega da Goldman Sachs, prevê que o índice Standard & Poors 500 suba 14% até ao final do próximo ano.

Cohen, que falhou a estimativa de valorização das acções norte-americanas no final deste ano, diz que o S&P 500 vai chegar aos 1.675 pontos. Esta estratega junta-se assim a congéneres do Citigroup, Bear Stearns e Strategas Research Partners na previsão de que este índice de referência norte-americano deverá atingir pelo menos aquele nível em 2008.

"Os títulos accionistas norte-americanos oferecerão ganhos moderados e vão ter desempenhos bastante mais fracos do que as obrigações no próximo ano", estima Cohen. Esta responsável está entre os estrategas mais optimistas de Wall Street inquiridos pela Bloomberg, prevendo que o S&P 500 possa chegar aos 1.600 pontos no final deste ano.

O S&P 500 está neste momento a perder 0,34%, estabelecendo-se em 1.467,33 pontos