CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

Pois...

Como disse há cerca de um mês, continuo à espera.

Pelo que percebi do que li no Yahoo Finance, vai mesmo ser processada.

De qualquer modo, penso que será um Banco Europeu a ir abaixo.

Os Americanos são especialistas em "sacudir a água do capite".

E por cá (Europa) anda tudo muito calado.
Menos os Ingleses, claro, com a sua tradição liberal..

Parece que a Bear Stearn pode ser processada pelo Barclays por ter feito negócios não previstos e que levaram à falência de dois fundos este ano...

Eu aumento a minha aposta em que a BSC é capaz de ir ao fundo...

Um abr
Nuno

Aqu vai outro artigo do cramer na linha do anterior...

Um abraço,
Ulisses


"The Lay of the Market"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
11/20/2007 12:30 PM EST


"Dichotomy today. You have the oils and the golds and the infrastructure names rallying along with the Coke (KO - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating)-a-Mo (MO - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) contingent. That's because we have a split in the market's view. Some just view the Fed as totally hopeless and they can't buy enough drug and food names.

Here, I like Altria, for its safe yield, and Schering-Plough (SGP - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) for its growth. Don't forget Hologic (HOLX - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), CVS (CVS - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) and Inverness Medical (IMA - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) (the latter is down) as health care plays to augment Medco (MHS - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), which also works.

Others believe that an emergency meeting of the Fed is on the horizon and they want minerals and mining and worldwide growth ideas. Throw in tech; Hewlett-Packard (HPQ - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) and Corning (GLW - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) are both ridiculously undervalued given their growth. And, of course, the momentum players, which are easy to track: Las Vegas Sands (LVS - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) and Wynn (WYNN - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) say it all.

I think that we are in an "anything but retail or finance" moment. Sure, some special situations -- I'm thinking Costco (COST - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) here, Nordies (JWN - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), too -- certainly work and I would be an aggressive buyer of GameStop (GME - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) off their conservative guidance.

And the fortunes of financial stocks can't change until we get that failure and subsequent Fed cut.

The action in Freddie Mac (FRE - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) and Fannie Mae (FNM - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) is signaling something imminent. (I believe both will have to raise convertible preferred, which is why the common stock of each is in free fall; it's a great short against the coming paper/financing.)

I still contend that we must see a failure in one of the financials. While the hobbling of Fannie and Freddie is awful, they don't qualify as failures. E*Trade (ETFC - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) at $4 seems like an interesting potential failure; I wouldn't touch that one with a four-foot pole. Or a 10-foot pole. If you insist, go buy the senior debt. That's a better call on what can happen than the common. Not that I trust that paper, either.


I am also watching the incredible slide in the cohort of Lennar (LEN - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), Standard Pacific (SPF - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) and Beazer (BZH - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating). They can't be touched, either.

I am amazed that the banks let them keep paying dividends. Those are next to go. And after Freddie Mac, the personal insurers -- PMI (PMI - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) and MGIC (MTG - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) are total get-out-of- dodge situations. I have been negative on them for months, and I simply reiterate my negativity. These are situations like the bad S&Ls I used to short in 1990; you have to endure squeezes like we had off the Old Republic move into PMI, but it is worth enduring.

Washington Mutual (WM - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) is actually trading better, relatively, of course, but Countrywide (CFC - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) is trading worse. Another nomination.

I always hate the prospects of Indymac (NDE - commentary - Cramer's Take) and CIT (CIT - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), too. They're too levered to homebuilders. You have to go through the filings of CIT to believe the exposure it has to crummy loans. Don't forget Security Capital (SCA - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating)!

All are candidates for a Fed wake-up call. Maybe with this Fed we need 'em all to go down, in true 1990 fashion. Nothing from this Fed now would surprise me. Obviously, the capital raising of Freddie Mac and I believe soon Fannie Mae will roil the debt market, too, as everyone flees agencies.

What a moment! Good time for a hike! Oh, and Fed minutes to prove their intransigence, coming right up! "

(in www.realmoney.com)

Eu arrisco na UBS ou Bear Stearn (ou as duas )... Já agora a CFC não conta, ok?

Um abr
Nuno

Já agora, qual será? Americana ou Europeia?

Tem graça que há uns dias para cá ando a pensar exactamente que isto não vai acabar sem termos um "collapse of a major financial institution"

Até já dou por mim mesmo a tentar pensar qual será..

Será possivel?

A ganância é uma coisa a feia

"Absent Implosion, It's Just a Trading Rally"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
11/20/2007 6:55 AM EST

"Depths of despair yesterday.

Then Countrywide (CFC - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) doesn't get crushed by the agencies, as if we should even believe anything they say and do. Nordstrom's (JWN - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) does the number that I thought they would, although of course I recommended it 25% ago on the bet that it would be a good number. Hewlett-Packard (HPQ - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) shows how excellent things can be when you are well-run. And Japan reverses itself.

Suddenly, an oversold rally during a seasonably strong period ignites.

We've seen it all before but you could not take advantage of it unless you bought the hideous close the night before.

Can you play?

You know my rules by now, if you didn't buy the weakness you can't buy the strength.

We can't get out of the woods here until we get a collapse of a major financial institution. We need all Fed heads saying in unison "We will cut rates until the financial situation is stabilized." That way the inflation issue is off the table and deflation will be recognized as the culprit.

Until then, enjoy the trading rally.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Hewlett-Packard."

(in www.realmoney.com)