CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

Ulisses Pereira Escreveu:Esa fraqueza do dólar é, na minha opinião, um dos pilares base do actual "Bull Market".

CN Escreveu:

"If the euro remained durably at $1.45, that would mean we have to find 1 billion euros in additional savings"

Há coisas que eu não consigo perceber. Porque é que não fazem o hedging desta posição de 1bn euros?

Ola Dwer,

Como diz o texto, "Airbus... earns all its revenue in dollars and incurs about half of its operating costs in euros...", e para isso e feito um hedge, ou seja, as vendas efectuadas em USD estao protegidas com um hedge.

No entanto, para as companhias em zona USD o preco do aviao fica mais caro cada vez que o EUR/USD sobe porque o preco e em EUR. Imagina por exemplo que em 2006 o CEO da Buddha Air (tem as contas em USD) foi a feira dos avioes em Toulouse e viu o A380 por um preco X em EUR que dava Y em USD. O dito CEO agora esta a pensar comprar mas o preco ja e mais alto em USD. E ai esta a maior dificuldade da Airbus.

Abraco da zona USD

CN

CN Escreveu:PS- andas acordado a esta hora?

CN Escreveu:No entanto, para as companhias em zona USD o preco do aviao fica mais caro cada vez que o EUR/USD sobe porque o preco e em EUR. Imagina por exemplo que em 2006 o CEO da Buddha Air (tem as contas em USD) foi a feira dos avioes em Toulouse e viu o A380 por um preco X em EUR que dava Y em USD. O dito CEO agora esta a pensar comprar mas o preco ja e mais alto em USD.

"If the euro remained durably at $1.45, that would mean we have to find 1 billion euros in additional savings"

Há coisas que eu não consigo perceber. Porque é que não fazem o hedging desta posição de 1bn euros?

rnbc Escreveu:

Pata-Hari Escreveu: (...) o país sem insucesso escolar....

Aliás, em vez de nos preocuparmos tanto com os que ficam para trás deviamos dispender mais tempo com os que poderiam evoluir muito mais e não evoluem por culpa do sistema que nivela demasiado por baixo.

Pata-Hari Escreveu:

“If the euro remained durably at $1.45, that would mean we have to find 1 billion euros in additional savings,”

Pata-Hari Escreveu: (...) o país sem insucesso escolar....

para happy guy

Clinico Escreveu:Mudando um pouco de assunto, achei muita piada ás recomendações do BPI em Cascais. Por "batido" que seja, nunca percebi a diferença entre a recomendação de "acumular" e "comprar". Se "manter" é estar quieto, "acumular" é comprar pouco e "comprar" é encher-me delas??? (só tenho o Tico e o Teco )

It is far too soon to speak of a recession in Europe, Mr. Mayer said. The European Central Bank has put off an increase in interest rates, possibly for the foreseeable future, and injected cash into the banking system to prevent the credit squeeze from mutating into a broader financial crisis.

September 22, 2007
Europe Fears a Downside in Strong Currency
By MARK LANDLER
FRANKFURT, Sept. 21 — Fears of an abrupt economic slowdown in Europe deepened on Friday, after the release of weaker-than-expected data and another record in the euro’s relentless rise against the dollar.

Europe’s stampeding currency prompted a warning from the plane maker Airbus that it might have to cut costs more deeply than expected to restore its troubled operations to financial health.

“If the euro remained durably at $1.45, that would mean we have to find 1 billion euros in additional savings,” Fabrice Brégier, the chief operating officer, said in an interview with a French radio station. The euro briefly traded at $1.41 on Friday morning before falling back slightly. It was at $1.4091 in late trading in New York.

Airbus, which is controlled by France and Germany, is already in the midst of a radical cost-cutting campaign, forced by heavy losses on its A380 jet. Its voice is the latest in a chorus of complaints from French and Italian leaders that the strong euro could choke off Europe’s growth.

What concerns economists more, however, is a sharp drop registered in the monthly survey of purchasing managers’ activity — evidence that the credit crisis that began in the American mortgage market and infected British and German banks has now seeped into Europe’s underlying economy.

An index of purchasing managers in the service sector dropped four points in September, its largest monthly decline ever, suggesting that commerce here is slowing faster than economists predicted.

“It’s a bad surprise,” said Thomas Mayer, chief European economist at Deutsche Bank. “All this talk of Europe not being really affected by the problems in the U.S. may have been whistling in the wind.”

It is far too soon to speak of a recession in Europe, Mr. Mayer said. The European Central Bank has put off an increase in interest rates, possibly for the foreseeable future, and injected cash into the banking system to prevent the credit squeeze from mutating into a broader financial crisis.

Still, the speed with which the turmoil in the financial markets has registered in the purchasing data alarmed economists. Most are busy scaling back their predictions for growth in Europe next year.

“It certainly got me nervous,” said Erik F. Nielsen, the chief European economist at Goldman Sachs, who had already lowered his forecast for European growth in 2008 to 2 percent from 2.3 percent.

The record-breaking rise of the euro has injected another unpredictable factor into their calculations. Most European exporters have weathered the rally without complaint, having cut costs and hedged their exposure, either financially or by moving production to countries that do not use the euro.

But a noisy minority is starting to agitate, and political leaders, notably in France, have picked up their concerns, lobbying the European Central Bank to take steps to stem the euro’s appreciation.

“We hope the E.C.B., at its meeting in October, will examine the consequences and take appropriate action,” the French finance minister, Christine Lagarde, said during a visit to China on Friday.

The European Central Bank rejects such demands as political meddling, and it has responded in increasingly testy fashion to statements made by President Nicolas Sarkozy and his ministers.

In a speech in Paris on Friday, one of the bank’s executive board members, Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, said, “In no other country do the political authorities make frequent and uncoordinated public statements about the exchange rate.” It hurts the credibility of Europe’s monetary policy, he said.

Economists say the level of noise in each country is roughly proportional to its exchange-rate vulnerability.

German officials, for example, have said relatively little about the recent rally. “There’s no doubt that by any measure, the Germans are in much better position than the French,” Mr. Nielsen said. “On unit labor costs, Italy has also done a better job than France.”

Still, a top Italian industrialist, Luca Cordero di Montezemolo, said, “The super euro worries us; we don’t want to give anyone any lessons, but this could become a problem for exports.”

Airbus is particularly vulnerable because it earns all its revenue in dollars and incurs about half of its operating costs in euros. That puts it at a big disadvantage to its American rival, Boeing.

Under its existing plan, Airbus plans to cut 2 billion euros ($2.8 billion) a year in costs by 2010, through the sale of several factories and the elimination of 10,000 jobs. In his radio interview, Mr. Brégier said the cost-cutting plan was predicated on a euro exchange rate of $1.35.

Airbus has hedged enough of its dollar exposure that a major short-term impact is unlikely, Rainer Ohler, the head of communications, said.

“Our problem is what’s going to happen in 2009 and 2010,” he said. “But nobody can predict what the dollar is going to do.”