O petróleo está em queda, mas a incerteza continua em alta

[Ulisses Pereira]

Luka, em termos do mercado americano, na esmagadora maioria das vezes em que uma acção tem uma queda daquele género, após uma pequena recuperação, a acção costuma retomar o caminho descendente.

Eu diria que uma entrada longa nessa acção apresenta um nível de risco demasiado elevado, na minha opinião.

Um abraço,
Ulisses

[Luka!]

FUNDAMENTALS >>>

TODAY ANALYST COMMENTS ON CC

http://today.reuters.com/news/articlein ... ticlePage3

"There are two things that are impacting guidance for the first quarter. The first is timing of shipments within their security business; the second is seasonal trends in their healthcare," Roth Capital Partners analyst Joshua Jabs said by phone.

However, Jabs reiterated his "buy" rating on the stock, citing the strength in the company's security business and continued room for margin improvements.

The share pullback was a buying opportunity, the analyst said in a note to clients.

Morgan Keegan analyst Brian Ruttenbur said, "The outlook actually wasn't that bad. It was a little bit shy of what people were looking for."

Ruttenbur cited slightly higher-than-expected selling, general and administrative expenses as well as higher research and development costs for the forecast falling short of expectations.

"This is a good company that is turning around, the problem is it is not turning as quick as some of us thought."

Ruttenbur maintained his "outperform" rating on the stock

QUARTERLY AND FISCAL 2008 OUTLOOK

OSI Systems said it expects first-quarter loss to be significantly less than the loss of 36 cents a share in the year ago period. Analysts were expecting a profit of 2 cents a share, before items, according to Reuters Estimates.

The company forecast first-quarter net sales of $125 million to $130 million, which was below analysts' consensus view of $137.5 million.

For fiscal 2008, OSI expects net sales of $580 million to $595 million. Analysts expect revenue of $600.3 million.


QUARTERLY PROFIT

OSI Systems reported fourth-quarter net income of $4.3 million, or 24 cents a share, compared with $0.7 million, or 4 cents a share, a year ago.

Revenue for the quarter rose 22 percent to $152.8 million.

Analysts on average expected the company to earn 20 cents a share, excluding exceptional items, on revenue of $156.4 million.

TECHNICAL >>>


BULLISH Probability - Extreme Oversold, odds definitely favor long trades.
Probability - Short term extreme pullback, expect pullback to pause/stop.
Confirmation - Extreme 3 day distribution, but when the stock is oversold this is considered bullish.
Confirmation - Extreme bullish 1 day moneyflow
TRADE QUALITY UPSIDE 75%, Good
Good trade quality is a combination of good profit, profit/loss ratio and target potential.

TARGET 1 Price: 23.27 Profit: 7% , for a typical rally.
Stop Limit/Trailing Stop Limit: 21.22 Loss: 2.4%
Profit/Loss Ratio: 2.9 : 1 - Good

TARGET 1 POTENTIAL Excellent, there are 0 resistance areas on the way to Target 1.
Stocks may quickly rise to Targets when there are not many resistance areas blocking the way.