"Play the Spin Cycle in Bank Stocks"
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
9/5/2007 7:43 AM EDT
"If you want to know why people get confused about stocks, just turn to the front and back pages of the Money and Investing Section of Murdoch's "Wall Street Journal."
On the front page is an article headlined "Conduit Risks Are Hovering Over Citigroup," which highlights -- in relatively gruesome detail if you are a Citigroup (C - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) holder, and my charitable trust is -- the woes that could be caused by some big investments in commercial paper entities that might have huge losses. The stuff sounds like it could blow up any minute, possibly taking Citi with it.
On the back page is an article about State Street (STT - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating). The subject? Conduit risks.
Same woes? Not on your life. This time it's the fact that the conduit woes to the commercial paper market might be overdone because the stock's gone down a great deal.
Even though I could argue that this "woe" is the exact same as Citigroup's, except potentially a much bigger hit to the entire capital of State Street, the conduit story was last week's story. Now it is time to put it in perspective and make people feel better about the risk.
Will we get the same "overdone" story about Citigroup next week that puts all of this bad conduit news into perspective?
Now let's say you play the short side. You will have smashed State Street down to oblivion. You can operate on Citigroup today. Maybe bring it in to be ahead of next week's apologia.
But here's two more: Bank of New York (BK - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating)and Northern Trust (NTRS - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating). They have mystifying conduits that could come back to hurt them. If I were in the short game I would set both of these up with puts, betting that the conduit police can't resist writing about them.
In the case of Bank of New York you can see a Three Rivers partnership that "feels" a lot like the Centauri, the structured investment vehicle that could now, we learn, cause hideous losses for Citigroup.
Look, anything "structured" is codeword for "it's going down." I am not dismissing the notion of analyzing these; I am just saying that this stuff is now very 1990 when we started looking at everything that could go wrong, not what was going wrong, and it had a dramatic effect downward on the stocks.
We are in that phase.
In fact, the State Street defense is rather early. I would figure that one could easily be raided down again with the right spin. But this article will blunt that raid and turn it around unless the raid is backed by concrete losses for the company.
Do I want these things to happen? Last week on CNBC I gave today's Journal's assessment. I looked like a Pollyanna in the face of the bad news.
Who knows? But just be aware that business, like politics, has spin cycles. Citigroup just got caught up in the one that just ran its course for State Street; Northern Trust and Bank of New York are next.
Better get set up that way. "
(in
www.realmoney.com)