Como diz o SMarq, o sector financeiro é o mais penalizado neste momento e aquele que apresenta porventura algum risco acrescido neste momento, contudo apresenta também uma janela de oportunidade...
Eu irei reforçando a minha exposição ao FORTIS.
No seu segmento é (na minha opinião) uma boa aposta.
Outra hipótese que eu coloco para investir será no ING Groep também na Holanda.
Aqui fica uma nota de research da ESN/Caixa BI:
Fortis
Belgium/Insurance Analyser
Fortis (Buy)
Two good reasons to buy Fortis ahead of EGM Buy
Share price*: EUR 28.59
Target price: EUR 39.50
Target Price unchanged
Recommendation unchanged
Reuters/Bloomberg FOR.AS/FORB BB
Accounting Standard/Since IFRS/2005
Market capitalisation (EURm) 36,619
No. of shares (m) 1,280.8
Free float 95.0%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 1,752,300
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 55.89
Price high 12 mth (EUR) 35.33
Price low 12 mth (EUR) 27.98
Abs. perf. 1 mth -9.0%
Abs. perf. 3 mth -15.0%
Abs. perf. 12 mth 1.8%
(EUR) 2006 2007e 2008e
Life Gross premiums (m) 9,147 10,428 11,783
Non-Life Gross prem.(m) 4,936 5,327 5,753
Total Net Revenues (m) 24,640 28,276 31,451
Life Ins.Tech.Result (m) 766 823 881
Non-Life Ins. Tech.Result 540 525 515
Earnings Before Tax (m) 5,704 6,140 6,661
Net Profit (adj.) (m) 4,351 4,481 4,874
Shareholders Equity (m) 20,644 23,170 25,919
ANAV (m) 19,596 22,243 25,119
ROE (adj.) (%) 22.0 20.5 19.9
Combined ratio (%) 96.8 98.0 98.8
P/E (adj.) 8.8 8.2 7.6
P/BV 1.8 1.6 1.4
P/ANAV 1.9 1.6 1.5
P/EbV 1.5 1.3 1.1
Dividend Yield 4.9% 5.3% 5.8%
EPS (adj.) 3.38 3.47 3.77
BVPS 16.12 18.09 20.24
ANAVPS 15.30 17.37 19.61
EbVPS 20.24 22.77 25.62
DPS 1.40 1.53 1.66
*closing price as of 02/08/2007
Analyst(s):
Ivan Lathouders, CFA, Bank Degroof
Ivan.Lathouders@degroof.be
+ 32 2 287 91 76
The facts: Since the announcement by the consortium of its intention to bid for
ABN AMRO, Fortis’ share price has underperformed banking and insurance
peers. As a result, today Fortis is one of the cheapest financial stocks on the
basis of any possible metric. We believe Fortis’ undervaluation vs. peers and our
fundamental valuation is simply not justified.
Our analysis: We believe today is a good day to buy Fortis because :
1) The positive impact of strong 2Q07. As we will discuss in the Fortis 2Q07
preview we will publish on Monday, we expect strong 2Q07. 2Q07 should alley
some fears that the company is facing difficulties controlling costs. It will
also be other opportunity to convince the market that Merchant Banking
revenues are actually a lot more recurring than it is giving Fortis credit for.
2) Fortis offers the highest dividend yield. At 5.3% 2007E and 5.8% 2008E
gross dividend yield, Fortis offers one of the highest dividends yields in the
industry. We expect Fortis will already pay EUR 0.70 gross dividend on 6
September 2007.
Because we believe that an ABN deal would add at least EUR 1 per share for
current Fortis shareholders, the outcome of Monday’s EGM does not have
any impact on the conclusion that Fortis is attractively valued. We expect
shareholders both in Brussels and Utrecht will approve both the ABN deal (50%)
and the proposed capital increase (75%) on Monday. But even in the unlikely
case shareholders would decide not to support the capital increase, an investment
in Fortis remains extremely attractive.
Conclusion & Action: We are very confident in our EUR 39.5 stand-alone
valuation of Fortis. An ABN deal would add at least EUR 1 per share. We
therefore believe that today is very good time to buy Fortis. After the recent selloff
Fortis clearly remains our preferred Belgian financial.