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Bloomberg Escreveu:Japan's Economic Growth Rebounds as Exports Climb

Nov. 13 (Bloomberg)

-- Japan's economy rebounded in the third quarter as exports rose and consumer spending unexpectedly climbed.

The world's second-largest economy expanded an annualized 2.6 percent in the three months ended Sept. 30 from a revised 1.6 percent contraction in the previous period, the Cabinet Office said in Tokyo today. The median forecast of 41 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 1.8 percent increase.

The Bank of Japan is expected to keep interest rates on hold later today amid concern the economy will slow. Investment in housing had the biggest drop in a decade in the quarter after a regulation change, threatening growth already at risk from a slowdown in the U.S., its largest market.

``The economy shuddered a bit in the second quarter but didn't stop in the third. That's good news,'' said Graham Davis, director of the Economist Intelligence Unit in Tokyo. ``There's still reasonable strength in Japan's economy.''

The yen traded at 109.72 against the dollar at 9.09 a.m. in Tokyo from 109.63 before the report was released. From the previous quarter the economy grew 0.6 percent, more than the 0.5 percent forecast by economists.

Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui and his policy board will conclude a two-day rate-setting meeting today in Tokyo. None of the 37 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expect the bank to raise its key rate from 0.5 percent, the lowest among the 30 members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

`Very Keen'

``The Bank of Japan's been very keen to put these rates up -- it's in their DNA,'' Davis said. ``But the economy is not really strong enough to allow them to do so.''

Consumer spending rose 0.3 percent from the second quarter. Economists expected spending by consumers, which accounts for more than half of the economy, to be unchanged.

Net exports, or the difference between exports and imports, contributed 0.4 percentage point to growth, less than the 0.5 percentage point expected by economists. Exports rose 2.9 percent and imports gained 0.5 percent from the second quarter. Both were lower than analysts' predictions.

Housing investment was the largest drag on growth, falling an annualized 27.8 percent in the third quarter, after the government enforced stricter rules for obtaining building permits in response to a 2005 scandal involving faked earthquake-engineering data. From the previous quarter it dropped 7.8 percent.

Central Bank Forecast

The Bank of Japan cut its economic growth forecast for the year ending March 31 to 1.8 percent from 2.1 percent, in part because of the drop in construction.

``The housing decline is going to be a drag on growth, so a pickup in the economy is going to be delayed until next year,'' said Takehiro Sato, chief Japan economist at Morgan Stanley in Tokyo. ``If the problem continues, it could lead to bankruptcies in the construction sector.''

The Topix Construction Index of 103 companies has dropped more than a fifth in the past three months, making it the worst performer of the 33 groups in the broader Topix index, which slumped 11 percent in the same period. The fallout has spread to other industries as well.

Toto Ltd., a bathroom fixtures company, cut its full-year profit forecast by 25 percent last month after the rule change caused a drop in demand from customers furbishing new homes. Its shares have fallen 19 percent since August, when reports first showed housing starts plummeting.

Housing Starts

``It usually takes about three months for housing starts to affect us so we're starting to see the impact this quarter,'' said Kenji Matsumoto, spokesman at the Fukuoka-based company. ``The decline in starts has been so large that we had to revise our full-year forecasts.''

The economy may not be able to count on export growth in coming months as the U.S. economy deteriorates and Japan's currency strengthens.

The yen has risen more than 5 percent against the dollar this month. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said last week that that growth in the world's largest economy will ``slow noticeably'' this quarter.

The U.S. economy is expected to expand at a 1.5 percent annual pace in the fourth quarter, less than half that of the third quarter, economists surveyed this month said.

scpnuno Escreveu:Agora em português:

O Nikkei cai 2,20%
O Kospi cai 1,95%
Os futuros caem todos

A coisa tá preta (ou vermelha)

Eu vou dormir com esperança de que quando acordar isto tenha sido um pesadelo

Abraços

Japan's Stocks Drop on `Uncertain' U.S. Outlook, Stronger Yen

By Patrick Rial

Oct. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese stocks fell after profit at the second-largest U.S. bank trailed analyst estimates, sparking concern the outlook for the world's largest economy is worsening, and after the yen surged against the dollar.

Nomura Holdings Inc., Japan's biggest brokerage, and Honda Motor Co., which generated 55 percent of its sales from North America last year, led declines. Bank of America Corp. said yesterday about $4 billion in trading losses, defaults and writedowns caused third-quarter profit to fall 32 percent.

``The biggest factor confronting the market right now is the uncertain outlook for the U.S.,'' said Soichiro Monji, who helps oversee $47 billion at Daiwa SB Investments Ltd. in Tokyo. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average could fall below 17,000, Monji said.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 233.77, or 1.4 percent, to 16,872.32 as of 9:24 a.m. in Tokyo. The broader Topix index slumped 22.57, or 1.4 percent, to 1,595.18.

For the week, the Nikkei has lost 2.7 percent, set for its first drop in six weeks. The Topix has fallen 3.9 percent, the worst performance since the week ended August 17.

Mitsui & Co. led gains by oil-related shares after the price of crude rose to a record.

Nomura slid 50 yen, or 2.5 percent, to 1,934. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., the nation's largest publicly traded bank, slumped 29 yen, or 2.8 percent, to 1,011. Mizuho Financial Group Inc., Japan second-largest, declined 22,000 yen, or 3.5 percent, to 608,000.

U.S. Earnings

Bank of America said yesterday net income dropped 32 percent to $3.7 billion in the third quarter as the company set aside 2.03 billion in the quarter to cover bad loans amid the worst U.S. housing slump in 16 years. The company's shares fell 2.4 percent.

Elsewhere, Washington Mutual Inc., the largest savings and loan institution in the U.S., tumbled 7.7 percent after at least three analysts recommended investors sell the stock in the wake of the company's Oct. 17 announcement that it may have to set aside as much as $2.9 billion this year to cover credit losses.

Stocks also dropped after the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits in the U.S. increased by the most since February to 337,000.

Honda, Japan's No. 2 automaker, fell 60 yen, or 1.6 percent, to 3,820. Canon Inc., which generated almost 75 percent of its sales from overseas last year, tumbled 160 yen, or 2.6 percent, to 5,940. Sony Corp., the maker of the PlayStation 3 game console, lost 100 yen, or 1.8 percent, to 5,330.

The yen recently traded at 115.38 against the dollar, from 116.56 at the close of trading yesterday in Tokyo. A stronger yen decreases the value of Japanese exporters' dollar- denominated sales when converted into the local currency.

Record Oil Price

Mitsui & Co., Japan's second-largest trading company, added 20 yen, or 0.7 percent, to 3,030. Inpex Holdings Inc., the nation's biggest oil explorer, climbed 20,000 yen, or 1.6 percent, to 1.29 million. Crude oil for November delivery rose 2.4 percent to $89.47 a barrel in New York, a record close.

Kirin Holdings Co. advanced 36 yen, or 2.3 percent, to 1,602. The brewer said it's in talks to acquire drugmaker Kyowa Hakko Kogyo Co. which was valued at 480 billion yen ($4.2 billion) at yesterday's closing price. Kyowa Hakko was untraded with the shares bid 5 percent higher to 1,262 yen.

Acom Co. was also untraded with the stock bid 7.1 percent higher to 2,400 yen. Japan's second-largest consumer lender by market value boosted its full-year forecast for operating profit, or sales minus the cost of goods sold and administrative expenses, by 63 percent to 49.4 billion yen.

Nikkei futures expiring in December fell 1.3 percent to 16,890 in Osaka and declined 1.2 percent to 16,895 in Singapore.

In other Asian markets open for trading, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index slid 0.9 percent and South Korea's Kospi index lost 1.1 percent.

To contact the reporter for this story: Patrick Rial in Tokyo at prial@bloomberg.net .
Last Updated: October 18, 2007 20:34 EDT