CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

Enviado: **11/8/2007 0:30**

"Rate-Cut Speculation
The Fed said it provided the $38 billion in reserves and pledged further funds ``as necessary'' to ``facilitate the orderly functioning'' of markets. The European Central Bank loaned 61.05 billion euros ($83.6 billion). Central banks in Japan and Australia also added funds as money-market rates rose around the world.
Fed funds futures indicate traders are betting on a quarter percentage point rate cut at policy makers' next meeting on Sept. 18. JPMorgan Chase & Co., one of the 21 securities firms that trades directly with the Fed, said there's a ``genuine possibility'' the central bank will lower interest rates between meetings if financial markets worsen.
``The stress generated by a repricing of credit risk is testing the resiliency of the global financial system,'' JPMorgan Chief Economist Bruce Kasman wrote in a report today."

Enviado: **10/8/2007 23:52**

barcavelha,

Não é verdade.

A baixa das tx de juro não estavam presentes no discurso dos bancos centrais no curto prazo - nem na Europa, nem nos States.
Bem pelo contrário, iriam manter-se (States) ou até mesmo subir (Europa) um pouco mais, para conter receios inflacçionistas, antes de se iniciar uma previsivel - pq não podem subir sempre - inversão.

O problema é o optimismo de muitos investidores - em sentido lato, com grandes bancos à mistura ! -, que estavam a contar descidas para suster o bull market.
Repare-se bem na nota: só agora - e não antes - mais de 50% estão a contar com descida nas taxas . E isto óbviamente como medida urgente de apoio aos mercados, outra razão para essa inversão da 'poll' não se vê (crescimento económico global saudável; lucros das empresas em alta; mercados bolsistas em alta continua de 3-4 anos, etc.).

Over & out.

Enviado: **10/8/2007 23:50**

barcavelha Escreveu:360º pelo contrário mantém-se coerentes!!!!!!

ahahah
é verdade sim senhor. 360º=0º :lol:

Enviado: **10/8/2007 23:33**

Cada vez vejo a coisa mais negra... Quando em 48 hrs a estratégia dos bancos centrais dá uma volta de 360º :shock:

... Muito, muito preocupante :roll:

!!![/quote]

360º pelo contrário mantém-se coerentes!!!!!!

Enviado: **10/8/2007 23:26**

Keyser Soze Escreveu:
Financial markets are now speculating that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at an emergency meeting as soon as next week, according to rumours. US- Interest-rate futures for August now show investors see the chances of a quarter-point reduction in the Fed's key rate are higher than 50 percent.

Cada vez vejo a coisa mais negra... Quando em 48 hrs a estratégia dos bancos centrais dá uma volta de 360º :shock:

... Muito, muito preocupante :roll:

!!!

Enviado: **10/8/2007 11:03**

Financial markets are now speculating that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at an emergency meeting as soon as next week, according to rumours. US- Interest-rate futures for August now show investors see the chances of a quarter-point reduction in the Fed's key rate are higher than 50 percent.

Enviado: **6/8/2007 21:13**

xallamec Escreveu:"In the meantime, the economy is strong. Profits are great, and interest rates are low and will stay that way. Don't sell. With all the shrieking about the market, it only fell to what it was about five weeks ago -- and we didn't think we were poor then.

So let the speculators shout "fire." As of right now, they're not blowing anything but smoke."

Excelente post. Enfim alguem pensa como eu .

Se as economias estão a crescer (até a nossa o que por si só é uma grande alteração), as empresas a aumentar espectacularmente os lucros e demais indicadores positivos de mercado, porque é que por meia duzia de empresas do outro lado do oceano estarem a falir, o que é normal em qualquer economia aberta de mercado, deviamos agora dar razão aos senhores jornalistas do bloomberg e acreditar que as acções vem para baixo.

Certo. Correcção forte, necessária e salutar até aí de acordo...mas crash ou mesmo bear market...sinceramente não me parece.

Não és só tu. Eu sempre pensei assim e por isso mesmo o comentei em posts neste forum. Inclusivé cheguei ao ponto de dizer que já estava farto de ouvir falar em ursos. Mas enfim...tira-se proveito disso que é que se há-de fazer...

Enviado: **6/8/2007 20:56**

"In the meantime, the economy is strong. Profits are great, and interest rates are low and will stay that way. Don't sell. With all the shrieking about the market, it only fell to what it was about five weeks ago -- and we didn't think we were poor then.

So let the speculators shout "fire." As of right now, they're not blowing anything but smoke."

Excelente post. Enfim alguem pensa como eu 8-)

.

Se as economias estão a crescer (até a nossa o que por si só é uma grande alteração), as empresas a aumentar espectacularmente os lucros e demais indicadores positivos de mercado, porque é que por meia duzia de empresas do outro lado do oceano estarem a falir, o que é normal em qualquer economia aberta de mercado, deviamos agora dar razão aos senhores jornalistas do bloomberg e acreditar que as acções vem para baixo.

Certo. Correcção forte, necessária e salutar até aí de acordo...mas crash ou mesmo bear market...sinceramente não me parece.

Enviado: **6/8/2007 20:38**

Be Cool Escreveu:Boa pergunta! Mas a minha ignorância não me permite dar uma resposta fiável e também não vou especular.
Mas, pegando nos últimos dois parágrafos do texto que citei e na reacção dos mercados americanos de hoje, dá para pensar que talvez a pólvora dos especuladores (ou seja, o medo) esteja a esgotar-se e a confiança possa regressar de novo. Pode ser que tenhamos mais um quarto trimestre em grande estilo.

É preciso ficar atento. Às vezes, estes "rebounds" são prenúncio de mais quedas. Aguardemos o teste ao anterior suporte no SPX (1490). Já o fez uma vez e não teve êxito.

Quanto ao medo que se instalou, realmente desta vez a corda tem sido muito esticada, o que me leva a crer que quem quiz vender, face ao medo que se instalou, já o fez. Os volumees na maior parte dos títulos têm sido miseráveis, o que me leva a ponderar a hipótese colocada do dito "short selling".

Abraço

Enviado: **6/8/2007 20:23**

Boa pergunta! Mas a minha ignorância não me permite dar uma resposta fiável e também não vou especular.
Mas, pegando nos últimos dois parágrafos do texto que citei e na reacção dos mercados americanos de hoje, dá para pensar que talvez a pólvora dos especuladores (ou seja, o medo) esteja a esgotar-se e a confiança possa regressar de novo. Pode ser que tenhamos mais um quarto trimestre em grande estilo.

Enviado: **6/8/2007 19:37**

Posso estar completamente errado mas o comportamento de alguns papeis da nossa praça está precisamente a ser influenciado pelo short-selling. Quais os intermediários financeiros que, na nossa praça, efectuam este tipo de operações?

Abraço,
MozHawk

Enviado: **6/8/2007 18:49**

Mr Stein pode estar cheio de razão...E tratando-se de uma opinião de alguém com enorme experiência e sabedoria acerca dos mercados, merece todo o crédito...

How Speculators Exploit Market Fears
by Ben Stein

Posted on Thursday, August 2, 2007, 12:00AM
Here's a fact: The speculators and hedge fund managers who run today's stock market need market volatility in order to make money.

They can't make enough money if the market stays flat or moves only a bit, so they like extreme and unexpected price movements. They especially like sudden, surprise movements down, when they can make money off stocks they borrow and sell -- or, as they say, "sell short."

Money Lust Satisfied

That's what's been happening the past couple of weeks. But it's not interesting to say that the speculators are whipping the market around to satisfy their money lust. So the speculators themselves make up reasons for why the market is fluctuating, flog those reasons to the media, and then profit if some other speculators believe the jive reasons and jump in the way the manipulators want them to.

Supposedly, the market is "correcting" because of worries about the housing slowdown, and also because of fears that the debt markets that support mergers and acquisitions is drying up.

These are interesting theories, and people who don't know a lot about the stock market or the economy might find them beguiling. What follows are a few truths that show how shallow these "reasons" for the stock market moves are.

Housing a Theory

Yes, the housing market has slowed from a spectacular bubble level to a simply pretty good level. Housing sales and starts are now about what they were in 2002, and no one thought we were in a housing depression then.

In any event, housing is only about 5 percent of the economy. If it falls by 15 percent, that would represent a fall-off of about .75 percent. That's not trivial, but it's also not the stuff of which recessions are made.

The fact is that there is no recession. The economy is suffering from a labor shortage, not a surplus of unemployment. The Fed is worried about excess demand, not slack demand.

Corporate profits set new records every day. Whatever's happening in residential sales and building is simply not slowing down the economy. Why should a Boeing or a Merck or a Pfizer have any reaction to housing at all? Because the speculators sell everything they can when nervousness sets in -- and for no other reason.

A Minor Major Mess

Subprime is a mess. But it's a small mess. Subprime mortgages account for roughly 20 percent of mortgages even in the most heavily exposed states. About 20 percent of them are delinquent in some way. That's 4 percent of mortgages.

Of these, maybe half, or 2 percent, will go into foreclosure. There will be roughly 50 percent recovery on sale of these. This is a loss of 1 percent in the mortgage market -- a sum the lenders have already made many times over because of the hefty fees on those deals. In the context of the size of the U.S. financial sector, it's nothing.

And why should a crisis in subprime drive down stocks in Mexico and Thailand? Again, because the speculators seek to create panic to make money by selling short, and they sell short everything.

There's simply no connection between subprime and developed or developing nations' stocks. This by itself shows the thin context of the selling wave late last month.

Money's Still Cheap

What about the supposed drying up of loans for mergers and acquisitions by private equity firms? Well, here's a good, simple test of just how valid that explanation is for stock market moves: The majority of private equity takeovers are financed with junk debt.

If there really were a major shortage of funds for these deals, the interest rate on the junk would skyrocket. Instead, while the rate has risen by about 150 basis points in the past month, the spread between junk and investment grade is now about 290 basis points, according to leading junk analyst Martin Fridson.

This is a lot lower than the year-end average of the spread from 2002 to 2006, and far below the almost 800 basis point spread during a true interest-rate crunch like the one after the tech meltdown in 2000-2002.

So that's phony, too. Interest rates have risen, but not anything like what they've done in real crises. And besides, the Dow fell by about 550 points the week before last, yet not one of the Dow stocks is involved as either acquiror or acquiree in a private equity deal.

In short, money is no longer virtually free the way it was for private equity deals in the past year. But it's not expensive by historical standards, either.

Spreading the Fear

In other words, it's all the speculators trying to panic us so their sell programs will make money. And they'll make money as long as they can spread their panic. When they can't do that any longer, they'll work the long side -- and make up reasons for that, too.

In the meantime, the economy is strong. Profits are great, and interest rates are low and will stay that way. Don't sell. With all the shrieking about the market, it only fell to what it was about five weeks ago -- and we didn't think we were poor then.

So let the speculators shout "fire." As of right now, they're not blowing anything but smoke.

Enviado: **6/8/2007 13:18**

Equity: American Home Mortgage Corp. filed for bankruptcy protection today, the latest casualty of a mortgage industry that has plunged into distress. American Home Mortgage's 40 biggest creditors include virtually all of Wall Street. The company's three biggest creditors are Deutsche Bank AG, Wilmington Trust Co., and JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Enviado: **1/8/2007 17:38**

nunofaustino Escreveu:
Peter_Borgas Escreveu:Fiz para aqui um grafico do nasdaq,na pior da hipoteses.

pq tu colocas "a pior da hipótese" nos 2300 ptos? A pior da hipótese fica 2300 pontos abaixo disso ... um pouco mais a sério, no 2000 ninguém dizia que a correcção iria ter a amplitude que teve, por isso o pior cenário poderá ser sempre pior do que se previa e o melhor cenário poderá ser sempre melhor do que se previa...

Um abr
Nuno

Tens toda a razão , BN

Enviado: **1/8/2007 15:29**

Peter_Borgas Escreveu:Fiz para aqui um grafico do nasdaq,na pior da hipoteses.

pq tu colocas "a pior da hipótese" nos 2300 ptos? A pior da hipótese fica 2300 pontos abaixo disso :twisted:

... um pouco mais a sério, no 2000 ninguém dizia que a correcção iria ter a amplitude que teve, por isso o pior cenário poderá ser sempre pior do que se previa e o melhor cenário poderá ser sempre melhor do que se previa...

Um abr
Nuno

Enviado: **1/8/2007 14:11**

US STOCKS-Indexes flat after ISM, home sales

01/08/2007

(Updates to show reaction to home sales, ISM data)

NEW YORK, Aug 1 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks were little changed in choppy trading on Wednesday after economic reports showing a surprise increase in pending home sales and a dip in an inflation measure from the manufacturing sector.

The Dow Jones industrial average was up 1.78 points, or 0.01 percent, at 13,213.77. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was down 2.09 points, or 0.14 percent, at 1,453.18. The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 8.75 points, or 0.34 percent, at 2,537.52. ((Reporting by Jennifer Coogan

Editing by Kenneth Barry

rm://jennifer.coogan.reuters.com@reuters.net

Telephone: + 1 646-223-6125)) ((Multimedia versions of Reuters Top News are now available for: * 3000 Xtra: visit http://topnews.session.rservices.com * BridgeStation: view story .134 For more information on Top News: http://topnews.reuters.com)) Keywords: MARKETS STOCKS

Enviado: **1/8/2007 13:54**

É o chamado "último suspiro do moribundo"!
Parece-me cedo para prognósticos.

Enviado: **1/8/2007 13:37**

US STOCKS-Indexes inch up at open after slide

01/08/2007

(Updates to open)

NEW YORK, Aug 1 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks edged higher at the opening on Wednesday as investors bought beaten-down shares following Tuesday's slide on credit worries.

The Dow Jones industrial average was up 31.70 points, or 0.24 percent, at 13,243.69. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was up 1.23 points, or 0.08 percent, at 1,456.50. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 3.33 points, or 0.13 percent, at 2,549.60. ((Reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch Editing by Kenneth Barry

Reuters Messaging:

rm:// caroline.valetkevitch.reuters.com@reuters.net;

Tel: +1 646 223 6393)) ((Multimedia versions of Reuters Top News are now available for: * 3000 Xtra: visit

http://topnews.session.rservices.com

* BridgeStation: view story .134

For more information on Top News: http://topnews.reuters.com))

Keywords: MARKETS STOCKS

Enviado: **1/8/2007 12:08**

US STOCKS-Wall St. set for further drop; Bear Stearns off

01/08/2007

(Updates with drop in Bear Stearns' stock, updates prices)

By Jennifer Coogan

NEW YORK, Aug 1 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures fell on Wednesday, suggesting Wall Street will add to Tuesday's steep losses and join a global equities sell-off fueled by fears about deteriorating credit conditions.

Among the latest signs of a credit crunch, Bear Stearns Cos Inc. said it halted redemptions in a third hedge fund after nervous investors wanted to withdraw their money. For details, see [ID:nN31256815]. Previously two hedge funds managed by the investment bank collapsed as a result of the subprime mortgage meltdown.

Bear Stearns' stock fell more than 3 percent to $117.24 before the opening bell.

Futures trimmed losses after Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said in Beijing the market impact of the subprime mortgage crisis was largely contained. [ID:nBJC000058].

But some market analysts were skeptical.

"Paulson is just being a cheerleader. I take what he says and anybody out of Washington with a grain of salt," said Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. in New York. "We've been hearing from him (the housing issue) has been contained for a year, so are we supposed to take what he says now to heart?"

Australia's Macquarie Bank warned on Wednesday that retail investors in two of its funds face losses of up to 25 percent, rattling Asian markets and sending the MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index down more than 4 percent.

"Even if the economic data today is positive, the market's main focus will remain tied to the credit problems. Until the market is convinced it's not going to spread, volatility is the name of the game," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Avalon Partners in New York.

S&P 500 futures dropped 11.9 points, below fair value, a mathematical formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract.

Dow Jones industrial average futures sank 92 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures lost 10.25 points.

The Dow industrials fell nearly 150 points on Tuesday after a U.S. mortgage lender said it may have to liquidate assets because of the housing slump. (Additional reporting by Ellis Mnyandu) ((Reporting by Jennifer Coogan

Editing by Kenneth Barry

rm://jennifer.coogan.reuters.com@reuters.net

Enviado: **1/8/2007 11:20**

Fiz para aqui um grafico do nasdaq,na pior da hipoteses.

Enviado: **1/8/2007 10:43**

Austrália/Banca 2007-08-01 09:57
Macquarie avisa que investidores podem perder 25% do seu dinheiro
O banco australiano Macquarie alertou hoje os investidores de dois dos seus fundos de maior rentabilidade de que poderão perder até um quarto do seu dinheiro, devido ao espalhar das consequências dos problemas no mercado do crédito à habitação de risco nos Estados Unidos.

Segundo a agência Bloomberg, o Macquarie Fortress Investments Ltd., que gere activos no valor de 873 milhões de dólares, foi forçado a vender activos de modo a evitar quebrar os seus acordos de crédito, levando os títulos da sua casa mãe a registarm a maior queda em cinco anos e meio na bolsa de Sidney.

Os peritos explicam que os fundos de investimento estão a ser 'presos' numa espiral descendente porque os bancos estão a forcar aqueles a quem concederam créditos a vender os seus activos, uma vez que o valor dos bens que deram como garantias dos empréstimos estão a diminuir.

Em comunicado emitido à imprensa, o director do Macquarie Fortress Peter Lucas afirmou que "não houve falhas de pagamentos no portfólio [do fundo] e não há razão para acreditar que os clientes não irão continuar a pagar os seus juros e as suas dívidas".

Ainda hoje, o fundo 'Asia Genesis Management', baseado em Singapura e que gere activos no valor de 450 milhões de dólares, avisou o mercado de que

Enviado: **1/8/2007 8:06**

vm Escreveu:
vitor79 Escreveu:Desculpem a ignorancia, mas porque é que a valrização da moeda suiça é mau sinal?

Normalmente é um refugiu nas quedas

sim

e olhar tb para o yen ... redução do carry trade faz o yen subir

Enviado: **1/8/2007 7:51**

vitor79 Escreveu:Desculpem a ignorancia, mas porque é que a valrização da moeda suiça é mau sinal?

Normalmente é um refugiu nas quedas

Enviado: **1/8/2007 7:47**

Desculpem a ignorancia, mas porque é que a valrização da moeda suiça é mau sinal?

Enviado: **1/8/2007 7:32**

http://www.bolsamania.com/derivados/carpatos.php

CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

Morgan Stanley prevê correcção

MozHawk

How Speculators Exploit Market Fears...

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