CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

Paul deAlex Escreveu: Yes, you say, but human beings program all these computers so there is always going to be human error. Yes and No. Why No? There are new hedge funds cropping up which put millions of market algorithms into computers and "allow the computer to sort out which work and which don't!" Please don't ask me how this is done, since I do not know. I only know that the waters are becoming more and more murky for the "little guy or gal" (I am one of them!) and the sharks are getting hungrier.

Algoritmos genéticos. Os sistemas são desenvolvidos e postos a funcionar. Um algoritmo genético acompanha a performance de cada sistema e vai misturando a ordem e a importância de cada um, num novo sistema. Os que falham, deixam de ser usados. Os que sobrevivem já não são o que eram. São novos sistemas que o algoritmo genético 'construiu'.
Não é mais do que fazemos nós próprios à la pate. Construímos sistemas, testamo-los, descartamos os maus, ficamos com os bons, construímos novos sistemas, combinamo-los com os que já tínhamos, recombinamo-los, às vezes vamos buscar sistemas antigos ao caixote do lixo porque ao testar um outro descobrimos porque é que o primeiro falhava, and so on. Os computadores fazem isto mais depressa. As equipas de programadores desenham os sistemas e alimentam o algoritmo genético. O monstro mastiga-os, cospe alguns, aproveita bocados de outro e ,supostamente, produz um sistema maravilha.

Sinceramente não sei se não será antes um grande negócio para os programadores e analistas.

Sintetiza na perfeição a realidade. Muito bom.

Leiam o artigo integral em http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article533.html

How long does it take to be a successful trader? This is the question most frequently asked. The answer is: in my experience, it takes 10 years and 10-20,000 hours of practice before the average person gains enough expertise to succeed consistently in the trading shark tank. The casino is getting more treacherous these days because the sharks are becoming more and more cunning. Complex algorithms, neural nets and many types of computer assisted trading are in vogue. Yes, you say, but human beings program all these computers so there is always going to be human error. Yes and No. Why No? There are new hedge funds cropping up which put millions of market algorithms into computers and "allow the computer to sort out which work and which don't!" Please don't ask me how this is done, since I do not know. I only know that the waters are becoming more and more murky for the "little guy or gal" (I am one of them!) and the sharks are getting hungrier.

Success in "real life" has little if anything to do with success in the markets. This is why so many highly educated and highly trained individuals fail as traders. Trading is a profession unlike any other since losing is winning. Think about that for a minute. Losing is winning.

How can I say something like that? What does that mean? How successful would you be as an attorney if you came home a couple of nights a week and announced to your wife that you lost another case today, and that you had lost three of your five cases this month? What about a medical doctor? How successful would you be if you had to deal with losing three patients in five surgeries? You see, real life standards by which success is measured are not applicable in the markets. Do you understand that? Do you see why so many people with enormous success and great careers simply fail miserably as traders?

To others, being wrong is a source of shame; to me, recognizing my mistakes is a source of pride. Once we realize that imperfect understanding is the human condition, there is no shame in being wrong, only in failing to correct our mistakes... George