13.30 - US GDP the Main Event Today
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itisi100 Escreveu:scpnuno Escreveu:1,3%
scpnuno,
como lançou este valor às 13:26h, 4 minutos antes da divulgação dos dados oficiais?
Tem conhecimentos lá dentro???
Bastava-me saber 1 minuto antes e enriquecia rapidamente
itisi100
Fui apanhada!! Quem calcula o GDP sou eu, logo já sabia o que ia divulgar!!!
Oh pá, sei lá. Estava a ver a Bloomberg e escrevi quando eles divulgaram; ou a Bloomberg está adiantada ou o Caldeirão atrasado.
Abraços
Esta é a vantagem da ambição:
Podes não chegar á Lua
Mas tiraste os pés do chão...
Podes não chegar á Lua
Mas tiraste os pés do chão...
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- Mensagens: 3807
- Registado: 6/11/2004 17:26
Keyser Soze Escreveu:Análisis del PIB [Imprimir comentario]
El PIB del primer trimestre da la sorpresa negativa y sube el 1,3 %s muy por debajo de lo esperado.
Para rematar la faena el deflactor sale al 4%s un punto más de lo esperado. El PCE a 3,4 %s una décima más de lo esperado y la subyacente +2,2 %s también una décima más de lo esperado.
El gasto del consumidor que es la partida clave en esta cifra ya que pondera casi el 70%s baja de +4,2 %s a +3,8%s y es la principal razón de la bajada.
Las inversiones empresariales suben de -3,1 a +2 %s y eso es la primera buena noticia.
Las inversiones inmobiliarias siguen siendo un duro lastre y pasan de -19,8%s a -17%s que sigue siendo demasiada bajada.
Las exportaciones -1,2 %s y eso que el dólar anda débil y las importaciones en cambio +2,3 %s así que el comercio exterior de nuevo restando mucho.
Por último los inventarios crecen en 14.800 millones de dólares, frente a los anteriores 22.400 millones.
Un dato muy flojo, que es el peor desde el primer trimestre del 2003, y lo que menos gusta además de la bajada del consumo, son esas débiles exportaciones que registran la primera caída desde el segundo trimestre del 2003. La inversión empresarial aunque mejora sigue baja y muy preocupante el lastre inmobiliario. El consumo en cualquier caso aunque ha bajado, no está en un mal nivel.
Qual foi a fonte?
- Mensagens: 477
- Registado: 4/7/2006 19:54
- Localização: Odivelas
Análisis del PIB [Imprimir comentario]
El PIB del primer trimestre da la sorpresa negativa y sube el 1,3 %s muy por debajo de lo esperado.
Para rematar la faena el deflactor sale al 4%s un punto más de lo esperado. El PCE a 3,4 %s una décima más de lo esperado y la subyacente +2,2 %s también una décima más de lo esperado.
El gasto del consumidor que es la partida clave en esta cifra ya que pondera casi el 70%s baja de +4,2 %s a +3,8%s y es la principal razón de la bajada.
Las inversiones empresariales suben de -3,1 a +2 %s y eso es la primera buena noticia.
Las inversiones inmobiliarias siguen siendo un duro lastre y pasan de -19,8%s a -17%s que sigue siendo demasiada bajada.
Las exportaciones -1,2 %s y eso que el dólar anda débil y las importaciones en cambio +2,3 %s así que el comercio exterior de nuevo restando mucho.
Por último los inventarios crecen en 14.800 millones de dólares, frente a los anteriores 22.400 millones.
Un dato muy flojo, que es el peor desde el primer trimestre del 2003, y lo que menos gusta además de la bajada del consumo, son esas débiles exportaciones que registran la primera caída desde el segundo trimestre del 2003. La inversión empresarial aunque mejora sigue baja y muy preocupante el lastre inmobiliario. El consumo en cualquier caso aunque ha bajado, no está en un mal nivel.
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- Mensagens: 3299
- Registado: 8/2/2006 17:32
Keyser Soze Escreveu:Economic Data (US, 1Q A): GDP Annualized out at 1.3% vs. 1.8% exp. 2.5% prior. Personal Consumption out at 3.8% vs. 3.5% exp. 4.2% prior. GDP Price Index out at 4.0% vs. 3.0% exp. 1.7% prior.
O GDP Price Index não é principal para a inflação?
- Mensagens: 181
- Registado: 16/10/2006 20:26
re
8:30 AM ET, Apr 27, 2007 - 2 minutes ago
U.S. 1Q final sales up 1.6%, weakest in 5 quarters
U.S. 1Q core PCE price index up 2.2% annualized
U.S. 1Q business investments up 2.0%
U.S. 1Q residential investments down 17%
U.S. 1Q consumer spending up 3.8%
U.S. GDP up 2.1% in past year, 4-year low
U.S. 1Q GDP price index up 4%, highest since 1991
U.S. 1Q GDP weakest since 1Q 2003
U.S. 1Q GDP up 1.3% annualized vs. 1.7% expected
ECONOMIC REPORT: GDP slows to 1.3% growth in first quarter; Inflation rages at the fastest pace in 16 years
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch Last Update: 8:30 AM ET Apr 27, 2007
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Hit by rising energy prices and a weak housing market, the U.S. economy slowed to 1.3% real annualized growth in the first quarter, the weakest expansion in four years, the Commerce Department estimated Friday.
The first estimate of first-quarter real gross domestic product was lower than the 1.7% expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch.
The economy has grown 2.1% in the past four quarters, the weakest real growth since the year ending in first quarter of 2003, when the economy was struggling to revive from a shallow recession.
The economy has expanded at less than its long-run potential of about 3% for three straight quarters: It grew 2.5% in the fourth quarter after 2% in the third quarter and 2.6% in the second quarter. Over time, growth at less than potential should reduce underlying inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve has said.
Growth in the first quarter was led by consumer spending, state and local government spending and business investments, offsetting drags from housing, foreign trade, inventories and federal government spending.
Final sales of domestic product - which excludes the impact of inventories on growth -- increased 1.6%, the weakest since the 0.3% decline in the fourth quarter of 2005 after Hurricane Katrina's devastation.
In nominal terms, the economy expanded at a 5.3% pace to an annualized level of $13.63 trillion. But inflation sapped most of that growth.
Led by higher energy costs, the GDP price index increased 4%, the most in 16 years. Meanwhile, core consumer prices - which exclude food and energy costs - increased at a more moderate 2.2% annual pace. In the past year, core prices are up 2.2%, the same year-over-year pace as in the fourth quarter, but above the Fed's 2.0% ceiling.
Consumer prices including food and energy are also up 2.2% in the past year.
Details
Consumer spending continued to shine in the first quarter, rising at a 3.8% annual pace after 4.2% in the previous quarter. Spending on durable goods increased 7.3%, spending on nondurable goods rose 2.9% and spending on services increased 3.7%.
Consumer spending contributed 2.7 percentage points to growth.
Personal incomes increased 9% annualized in the quarter, boosted by annual bonus payments. Real disposable incomes (after taxes and inflation) increased 4.5%, down from 5.3% in the previous quarter.
Residential investments fell for the sixth straight quarter, dropping 17% annualized after falling 19.8%. Residential investment is off 16.7% in the past year. Investments in homes subtracted 1 percentage point from growth.
Business investments rose a modest 2% after falling 3.1% in the fourth quarter. Investments in equipment and software increased 1.9%, while investments in structures increased 2.2%. Business investment contributed 0.2 percentage points to growth.
Inventories dragged on the economy for the second straight quarter, subtracting 0.3 percentage points from growth. Inventories increased by $14.8 billion after $22.4 billion in the previous quarter.
Exports fell 1.2%, the biggest decline in nearly four years. Imports increased 2.3%. Net exports subtracted 0.5 percentage points from growth.
Government spending increased 0.9%, with state and local government spending rising 3.3% and federal spending falling 3%. Defense spending dropped 6.6%. Government spending contributed 0.2 percentage points to growth.
U.S. Q1 12-month ECI gain largest since March '05
U.S. Q1 employment costs index up 3.5% yr-on-yr vs 3.3% Q4
U.S. Q1 employment cost index up 0.8% vs 0.9% expected
ECONOMIC REPORT: U.S. employment costs up 0.8% in Q1; Wages up by largest amount in six years
By Greg Robb, MarketWatch Last Update: 8:31 AM ET Apr 27, 2007
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. employment costs continued to rise in the first quarter, the Labor Department reported Friday.
Employment costs rose 0.8% in the first quarter, down only slightly from a 0.9% gain in the fourth quarter.
Economists surveyed by MarketWatch forecast a 0.9% increase in the employment cost index, considered one of the best measures of labor-cost pressures.
Wage costs rose much faster than benefits in the first quarter. Wages and salaries climbed 1.1% between January and March, the largest increase since the first quarter of 2001. Benefit costs inched up 0.1%, the slowest pace since the first quarter of 1999.
Calculated out over the past year, employment costs have increased 3.5% compared to a rise of 2.8% in the comparable period ended in March 2006. This is the fastest year-over-year growth since the first quarter of 2005.
Wage and salary have increased 3.6% rise in the year ended March 2007, up from growth of 2.7% gain in the year ended March 2006.
Employment costs are a major cause of worry for the Fed, which theorizes that inflation can only be sustained if workers force their bosses to pay higher compensation, which is then passed on to customers in the form of higher prices.
Employment costs had been trending lower in 2004 and 2005 but the downward trend ended last year.
The rise in employment costs is a "warning flag" for the Fed, said Mike Moran, chief economist at Daiwa Securities.
"It reinforces the view of Fed officials that unemployment is low enough to start to influence wages," Moran said.
For state and local government workers, the employment cost index rose 1.3% in the first quarter. Wage and salary rose 0.9% and benefit costs rose 2.1%.
Compensation costs for private industry rose 0.6% in the first quarter. Wages and salaries rose 1.1%, while benefit costs fell a record 0.3%.
The employment costs index is a broader measure of compensation costs than the separate series of data on average hourly wages, which cover only about 80% of U.S. workers.
The average hourly earnings data has been stronger than the ECI report. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased 4.0%.
The ECI covers more workers than the average hourly earnings series and covers a greater range of compensation costs, including fringe benefits, bonuses and perks.
U.S. 1Q final sales up 1.6%, weakest in 5 quarters
U.S. 1Q core PCE price index up 2.2% annualized
U.S. 1Q business investments up 2.0%
U.S. 1Q residential investments down 17%
U.S. 1Q consumer spending up 3.8%
U.S. GDP up 2.1% in past year, 4-year low
U.S. 1Q GDP price index up 4%, highest since 1991
U.S. 1Q GDP weakest since 1Q 2003
U.S. 1Q GDP up 1.3% annualized vs. 1.7% expected
ECONOMIC REPORT: GDP slows to 1.3% growth in first quarter; Inflation rages at the fastest pace in 16 years
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch Last Update: 8:30 AM ET Apr 27, 2007
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Hit by rising energy prices and a weak housing market, the U.S. economy slowed to 1.3% real annualized growth in the first quarter, the weakest expansion in four years, the Commerce Department estimated Friday.
The first estimate of first-quarter real gross domestic product was lower than the 1.7% expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch.
The economy has grown 2.1% in the past four quarters, the weakest real growth since the year ending in first quarter of 2003, when the economy was struggling to revive from a shallow recession.
The economy has expanded at less than its long-run potential of about 3% for three straight quarters: It grew 2.5% in the fourth quarter after 2% in the third quarter and 2.6% in the second quarter. Over time, growth at less than potential should reduce underlying inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve has said.
Growth in the first quarter was led by consumer spending, state and local government spending and business investments, offsetting drags from housing, foreign trade, inventories and federal government spending.
Final sales of domestic product - which excludes the impact of inventories on growth -- increased 1.6%, the weakest since the 0.3% decline in the fourth quarter of 2005 after Hurricane Katrina's devastation.
In nominal terms, the economy expanded at a 5.3% pace to an annualized level of $13.63 trillion. But inflation sapped most of that growth.
Led by higher energy costs, the GDP price index increased 4%, the most in 16 years. Meanwhile, core consumer prices - which exclude food and energy costs - increased at a more moderate 2.2% annual pace. In the past year, core prices are up 2.2%, the same year-over-year pace as in the fourth quarter, but above the Fed's 2.0% ceiling.
Consumer prices including food and energy are also up 2.2% in the past year.
Details
Consumer spending continued to shine in the first quarter, rising at a 3.8% annual pace after 4.2% in the previous quarter. Spending on durable goods increased 7.3%, spending on nondurable goods rose 2.9% and spending on services increased 3.7%.
Consumer spending contributed 2.7 percentage points to growth.
Personal incomes increased 9% annualized in the quarter, boosted by annual bonus payments. Real disposable incomes (after taxes and inflation) increased 4.5%, down from 5.3% in the previous quarter.
Residential investments fell for the sixth straight quarter, dropping 17% annualized after falling 19.8%. Residential investment is off 16.7% in the past year. Investments in homes subtracted 1 percentage point from growth.
Business investments rose a modest 2% after falling 3.1% in the fourth quarter. Investments in equipment and software increased 1.9%, while investments in structures increased 2.2%. Business investment contributed 0.2 percentage points to growth.
Inventories dragged on the economy for the second straight quarter, subtracting 0.3 percentage points from growth. Inventories increased by $14.8 billion after $22.4 billion in the previous quarter.
Exports fell 1.2%, the biggest decline in nearly four years. Imports increased 2.3%. Net exports subtracted 0.5 percentage points from growth.
Government spending increased 0.9%, with state and local government spending rising 3.3% and federal spending falling 3%. Defense spending dropped 6.6%. Government spending contributed 0.2 percentage points to growth.
U.S. Q1 12-month ECI gain largest since March '05
U.S. Q1 employment costs index up 3.5% yr-on-yr vs 3.3% Q4
U.S. Q1 employment cost index up 0.8% vs 0.9% expected
ECONOMIC REPORT: U.S. employment costs up 0.8% in Q1; Wages up by largest amount in six years
By Greg Robb, MarketWatch Last Update: 8:31 AM ET Apr 27, 2007
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. employment costs continued to rise in the first quarter, the Labor Department reported Friday.
Employment costs rose 0.8% in the first quarter, down only slightly from a 0.9% gain in the fourth quarter.
Economists surveyed by MarketWatch forecast a 0.9% increase in the employment cost index, considered one of the best measures of labor-cost pressures.
Wage costs rose much faster than benefits in the first quarter. Wages and salaries climbed 1.1% between January and March, the largest increase since the first quarter of 2001. Benefit costs inched up 0.1%, the slowest pace since the first quarter of 1999.
Calculated out over the past year, employment costs have increased 3.5% compared to a rise of 2.8% in the comparable period ended in March 2006. This is the fastest year-over-year growth since the first quarter of 2005.
Wage and salary have increased 3.6% rise in the year ended March 2007, up from growth of 2.7% gain in the year ended March 2006.
Employment costs are a major cause of worry for the Fed, which theorizes that inflation can only be sustained if workers force their bosses to pay higher compensation, which is then passed on to customers in the form of higher prices.
Employment costs had been trending lower in 2004 and 2005 but the downward trend ended last year.
The rise in employment costs is a "warning flag" for the Fed, said Mike Moran, chief economist at Daiwa Securities.
"It reinforces the view of Fed officials that unemployment is low enough to start to influence wages," Moran said.
For state and local government workers, the employment cost index rose 1.3% in the first quarter. Wage and salary rose 0.9% and benefit costs rose 2.1%.
Compensation costs for private industry rose 0.6% in the first quarter. Wages and salaries rose 1.1%, while benefit costs fell a record 0.3%.
The employment costs index is a broader measure of compensation costs than the separate series of data on average hourly wages, which cover only about 80% of U.S. workers.
The average hourly earnings data has been stronger than the ECI report. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased 4.0%.
The ECI covers more workers than the average hourly earnings series and covers a greater range of compensation costs, including fringe benefits, bonuses and perks.
- Mensagens: 1620
- Registado: 17/11/2005 1:02
13.30 - US GDP the Main Event Today
The bull is getting tired just ahead of one of 2007's key data points: Q1 US GDP. Market consensus is 1.8 percent but we think this too low given the data so far this year. We wouldn't be surprised of a figure above 2 pct.
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- Mensagens: 3299
- Registado: 8/2/2006 17:32
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