CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

Ulisses Pereira Escreveu:Miguel_Albano, foste sistematicamente avisado da tua postura de ataque contínuo e chacota a outros utilizadores. Num curto período de tempo, vários posts teus foram apagados. Mas, pelos vistos, insistes em manter a tua linhda de comportamento aqui no Caldeirão. Hoje chegou ao fim.

Um abraço,
Ulisses

Miguel_Albano Escreveu:
Enfim...sempre a tentar mover/influenciar o mercado no sentido que desejas...

luka Escreveu:As nossas empresas :

Mota Engil / Teixeira Duarte / Soares da Costa ...

por enquanto foram poupadas.


Mas sendo esta crise uma crise relativamente geral (a subida dos preços foi também geral) ... vamos a ver durante quanto tempo mais aguentam em maximos.

SHORT TERM CORRECTION EXPECTED

By Clifton DeSilva | Tuesday, April 24, 2007 10:33:6 IST
Three weeks ago when the Reserve Bank of India announced a hike in CRR and repo rate on a Friday after market hours, it took the markets by surprise and when the stock markets opened on Monday


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Three weeks ago when the Reserve Bank of India announced a hike in CRR and repo rate on a Friday after market hours, it took the markets by surprise and when the stock markets opened on Monday, there was all round nervousness with the result that the Sensex lost more than 600 points on that day. However thereafter the markets have regained their poise and over the next three weeks the markets have not only regained lost ground but have also scored substantial gains. The triggers to a large extent have been global cues. In fact over the last week most of the markets world over has recorded gains. To cite a few examples of major global indices- Dow Jones at 12,961.9 was up by 153.35 points over the last week. FTSE at 6486.8 was up by46.20 points. The Asian markets were also buoyant- Hang Seng up 266.88 at 20,566.8, Nikkei up 80.54 at 17452.6 Strait Times up 69.39 at 3360.71.
At home both the indices recorded substantial gains on the back of decent gains in the previous week. The Sensex closed the week at 13897.4 up 513.33, while the Nifty closed at 4083.6 up
166.20 points.
As said global cues were one of the major factors for the continued buoyancy in the markets, the other factor was the buoyancy in earnings released by some of the major companies.
Only a month back, there was pessimism that most IT companies would not deliver earnings as per expectations due to the rising rupee as well as possible slowing down of the US economy. Stock prices of leading IT companies remained subdued for a considerable period of time. However with the declaration of number by Infoys, the trend reversed and there appears to be a gradual change in the sentiment for IT companies. However there have been no runaway increases in the prices if IT companies except that the declines have been arrested. Major companies like Infoys, Satyam, and Wipro to name a few are still well below their highs of this year. In fact the stock of Infoys has not gained any decent rise after the promising guidance for FY08. The company’s guidance forecasts earnings per share of around Rs 81 and Infoys is always known to over deliver. The subdued stock price provides excellent opportunities for long term investors to acquire the stock at prices around 2000 levels.
The other major IT companies in the form of TCS, Wipro and Satyam also announced encouraging results.
What is encouraging is that the total turnover of the top four Indian IT service providers- Tata Consultancy Services, Inoys Wipro and Satyam computers crossed the $ 10 billion mark to $ 12 billion in FY07 despite fears that wage inflation, rupee appreciation, and a perceived US slowdown would affect the growth of these software firms. Estimates suggest that even factoring rupee appreciation and wage inflation, the total turnover of the IT quartets should surpass the $ 20 billion mark by 2009 assuming an annual growth rate of 30%.
Therefore investment in the stocks of these four companies at current prices as well declines
could ensure decent growth for investors with a 2 year horizon.
The other sector were fears were also expressed was the cement sector. The only difference between the IT sector and the cement sector was that in the case of the IT sector it was economics like appreciating rupee and a perceived US slowdown that affected the sentiment, whereas in the case of cement the outlook for the industry remained buoyant on the back of
rising demand for cement, bur what dampened the sentiment was the constant interference
by the government.
Like the IT sector the leading Cement companies have delivered a good set of numbers.
Ultra Tech fourth quarter net profit rose 76%, driven by higher sales, better realization and a bigger share of blended cement.
For FY 07, the net profit at Rs 782 crore was two and a half times higher, against 229.8 crore a year ago.Net sales at Rs 4910 crore (3299.5) grew 49%.
Ambuja Cements first quarter profit has risen by 43% due to higher realizations, lower costs and a one time profit from the sale of shares in an associate company.Net profit in the quarter March 07 was Rs 590.74 crores from Rs 412.77 crore in the corresponding previous period.Net sales grew 34%to Rs 1434 compared to Rs 1074 crore.
India cements reported a in net profits at Rs 449.5 crore for March 07 compared to Rs 45.3 crore in the previous period Net Sales soared to Rs 2367.3 crore compared to Rs 1829.44 crore.
In the fourth quarter the company posted a net profit or Rs 139.8 crore compared with Rs 27 crore a year ago, and net sales of Rs 672.90 crore as against Rs 499 crore.
The excellent results are due to cost control in power and other costs.
According to the company the gross realization for the whole year was Rs 3130 per tonne compared to Rs 2460 last year. The company has been working at 100%capacity utilization but expects all the brown field expansions to go through in the coming year and expects at least 10% additional growth.
ACC announced a 54. % rise in net profit at Rs 363.75 crore compared to Rs 289.96 crore in the quarter March 07. Net sales amounted to Rs 1674.83 crores compared to Rs 1342.43 crore.
Though the performance of the cement sector has been encouraging, the performance is not reflected in the stock prices as there are concerns that going forward the prices may not see any rise as in the previous year as the industry has promised to hold the price line for at least a year. At the same time costs would increase and in the next two years based on capacities being built up, excess supply could emerge.
However, these concerns may be short term in nature and over a longer period of time the sector would continue to do well in view of the growing economy and the thrust on infrastructure
Over the last three weeks the stock markets have witnessed substantial rise and though the long term outlook appears positive a short term correction appears round the corner.

Mr. Clifton DeSilva is Director, Altina Securities Pvt. Ltd., Mumbai.