Cramer: "A Reason to Be Positive"
Enviado: 16/4/2007 12:28Artigo de ontem do Cramer:
"A Reason to Be Positive"
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
4/15/2007 1:11 PM EDT
"If Sallie Mae (SLM - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) gets a bid tomorrow I will have to be more positive than I have been lately. As I'm sure you saw Friday, the big college lender reportedly is in talks to be acquired by private equity firms for more than $20 billion.
I recently got more cautious as the market moved higher because of a lifetime of being disappointed by a longer upside and a lifetime of reward for selloffs that make stocks cheaper. Given the propensity for so many people to be chartists, or closet-chartists, plus the innate inability of fear to paralyze people, the best buying opportunities are when everyone is running for the hills. The simple and intuitive corollary is that the worst buying opportunities (and the best selling opportunities) are when we are much more distant from the bottom of the selloffs. This is logical, yet it's alien to so many.
Which brings me back to Sallie Mae. With the advent of so many players in student lending, courtesy of the government's endless desire to allow the banks to do whatever they want, I always thought that Sallie Mae was forever to be a low-multiple player a la Fannie Mae (FNM - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) and Freddie Mac (FRE - commentary - Cramer's Take), both of which have seen similar emasculation by the Bush Administration.
If Chris Flowers of JC Flowers is interested in Sallie Mae, as The Wall Street Journal reported, then I'm wrong and there's opportunity even in a company that I would be biased toward being massively short. After all, Flowers is the best and toughest guy in the private equity valley. Next to go, no doubt, will be the mortgage insurers, which makes no sense to me, but if Sallie Mae can get a bid, those can, too.
The point I am trying to make, in a roundabout blog way, is that when the companies you most regard as shorts are rumored buyouts or actual buyouts, it's impossible to stay negative for more than a passing macro moment.
If the worst can be first, and the first, are, well first, you need to readjust your parameters. Only after the 1987 crash, when prices were brought down unnaturally by the machines, have I seen such an excessive wave of buying of quintessentially bad companies.
All rather amazing, and way too bullish up here some 600 points from the low, but maybe, just maybe, several thousand points from the top. "
(in www.realmoney.com)
"A Reason to Be Positive"
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
4/15/2007 1:11 PM EDT
"If Sallie Mae (SLM - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) gets a bid tomorrow I will have to be more positive than I have been lately. As I'm sure you saw Friday, the big college lender reportedly is in talks to be acquired by private equity firms for more than $20 billion.
I recently got more cautious as the market moved higher because of a lifetime of being disappointed by a longer upside and a lifetime of reward for selloffs that make stocks cheaper. Given the propensity for so many people to be chartists, or closet-chartists, plus the innate inability of fear to paralyze people, the best buying opportunities are when everyone is running for the hills. The simple and intuitive corollary is that the worst buying opportunities (and the best selling opportunities) are when we are much more distant from the bottom of the selloffs. This is logical, yet it's alien to so many.
Which brings me back to Sallie Mae. With the advent of so many players in student lending, courtesy of the government's endless desire to allow the banks to do whatever they want, I always thought that Sallie Mae was forever to be a low-multiple player a la Fannie Mae (FNM - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) and Freddie Mac (FRE - commentary - Cramer's Take), both of which have seen similar emasculation by the Bush Administration.
If Chris Flowers of JC Flowers is interested in Sallie Mae, as The Wall Street Journal reported, then I'm wrong and there's opportunity even in a company that I would be biased toward being massively short. After all, Flowers is the best and toughest guy in the private equity valley. Next to go, no doubt, will be the mortgage insurers, which makes no sense to me, but if Sallie Mae can get a bid, those can, too.
The point I am trying to make, in a roundabout blog way, is that when the companies you most regard as shorts are rumored buyouts or actual buyouts, it's impossible to stay negative for more than a passing macro moment.
If the worst can be first, and the first, are, well first, you need to readjust your parameters. Only after the 1987 crash, when prices were brought down unnaturally by the machines, have I seen such an excessive wave of buying of quintessentially bad companies.
All rather amazing, and way too bullish up here some 600 points from the low, but maybe, just maybe, several thousand points from the top. "
(in www.realmoney.com)