Greenspan quantifica as probabilidades de recessão
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petar Escreveu:moguita Escreveu:O que eu noto é que todos os indicadores americanos estão a sair abaixo das expectativas, hoje o mais significativo é o relativo aos bens duradouros que teve a maior queda dos últimos 6!!! anos.
Hoje o Greenspan disse que o anterior ciclo de crescimento durou dez anos, mas que por norma estes períodos do ciclo costumam ser mais curtos...será que 6 anos é o valor de referência
É verdade. Regra geral as noticias hoje têm andado muito negativas. E os indices pra cima. Ou seja, ao contrário da outra semana que até nem sairam más noticias.
Isto é normal ou dentro em breve desce tudo e depois dizem que era das noticias que tinham saído uns dias antes???
O que eu já vi acontecer noutras alturas, em situações semelhantes, é o mercado subir durante grande parte da secção e na última hora perder todos os ganhos.
Não esquecer que hoje o presidente da FED tem uma intervenção perante um grupo de banqueiros, vamos ver que género de perspectivas ele tem para a economia americana depois dos últimos dados disponíveis
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moguita Escreveu:O que eu noto é que todos os indicadores americanos estão a sair abaixo das expectativas, hoje o mais significativo é o relativo aos bens duradouros que teve a maior queda dos últimos 6!!! anos.
Hoje o Greenspan disse que o anterior ciclo de crescimento durou dez anos, mas que por norma estes períodos do ciclo costumam ser mais curtos...será que 6 anos é o valor de referência
É verdade. Regra geral as noticias hoje têm andado muito negativas. E os indices pra cima. Ou seja, ao contrário da outra semana que até nem sairam más noticias.
Isto é normal ou dentro em breve desce tudo e depois dizem que era das noticias que tinham saído uns dias antes???
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." - Keynes
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O que eu noto é que todos os indicadores americanos estão a sair abaixo das expectativas, hoje o mais significativo é o relativo aos bens duradouros que teve a maior queda dos últimos 6!!! anos.
Hoje o Greenspan disse que o anterior ciclo de crescimento durou dez anos, mas que por norma estes períodos do ciclo costumam ser mais curtos...será que 6 anos é o valor de referência
Hoje o Greenspan disse que o anterior ciclo de crescimento durou dez anos, mas que por norma estes períodos do ciclo costumam ser mais curtos...será que 6 anos é o valor de referência
- Mensagens: 120
- Registado: 15/12/2005 19:03
Boas,
Para sabermos se haverá ou não uma recessão, teremos que analisar os dados económicos numa base da sua evolução em 3 a 6 meses.
Já sabemos que o PIB cresce agora menos, cerca de 2% no último trimestre /06 e poderá atingir o mesmo valor no 1º trimestre /07.
Tanto pode ser que se verifica uma recuperação à medida que o ano avança, como pode ocorrer o inverso causando uma recessão no fim deste ano, princípio de 2008. Está tudo em aberto.
Como saber em antecipação?
Não é fácil, mas devemos analisar vários padrões:
- manutenção da crise no imobiliário
- prolongamento da baixa no sector industrial
SOBRETUDO ATENÇÃO
-se o sector de serviços vai baixar também, a exemplo do que se passou no mês passado.
- se o emprego vai aumentar; criação líquida de empregos abaixo de 100K por mês.
Neste caso, teremos seguramente uma recessão. Provavelmente, a queda de juros de longo prazo, poderá contribuir para amenizá-la, podendo ser apenas de pouca duração e impacto reduzido.
Os dados disponíveis fazem-me mudar de opinião num ponto. O FED não deverá manter um viés neutro em relação à política monetária. A continuarem os dados negativos, seguramente teremos um viés neutro / baixa, com hipótese de queda de juros lá mais para a frente.
Até a Europa será contaminada, levando o BCE a elevar os juros somente a 3.75 - 4%, ficando neutro logo de seguida.
Abraço
djovarius
Para sabermos se haverá ou não uma recessão, teremos que analisar os dados económicos numa base da sua evolução em 3 a 6 meses.
Já sabemos que o PIB cresce agora menos, cerca de 2% no último trimestre /06 e poderá atingir o mesmo valor no 1º trimestre /07.
Tanto pode ser que se verifica uma recuperação à medida que o ano avança, como pode ocorrer o inverso causando uma recessão no fim deste ano, princípio de 2008. Está tudo em aberto.
Como saber em antecipação?
Não é fácil, mas devemos analisar vários padrões:
- manutenção da crise no imobiliário
- prolongamento da baixa no sector industrial
SOBRETUDO ATENÇÃO
-se o sector de serviços vai baixar também, a exemplo do que se passou no mês passado.
- se o emprego vai aumentar; criação líquida de empregos abaixo de 100K por mês.
Neste caso, teremos seguramente uma recessão. Provavelmente, a queda de juros de longo prazo, poderá contribuir para amenizá-la, podendo ser apenas de pouca duração e impacto reduzido.
Os dados disponíveis fazem-me mudar de opinião num ponto. O FED não deverá manter um viés neutro em relação à política monetária. A continuarem os dados negativos, seguramente teremos um viés neutro / baixa, com hipótese de queda de juros lá mais para a frente.
Até a Europa será contaminada, levando o BCE a elevar os juros somente a 3.75 - 4%, ficando neutro logo de seguida.
Abraço
djovarius
Cuidado com o que desejas pois todo o Universo pode se conjugar para a sua realização.
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e é sempre uma maneira
de dizer que eu sou melhor que ele 
Green was best than bernie....
Go down..... i'm bear...
Cumps
Green was best than bernie....
Go down..... i'm bear...
Cumps
Vai onde te leva o sonho, mas cuidado, não vá ele tornar-se um pesadelo....
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Greenspan quantifica as probabilidades de recessão
Na semana passada muito se escreveu sobre as delarações de Greenspan. Primeiro, a Imprensa noticiava que Greenspan considerava provável uma recessão nos Estados Unidos este ano. Depois, o mesmo Greenspan, veio clarificar que tinha aformado que era possível (e não provável) essa mesma recessão.
Hoje, a Bloomberg noticia que "o maestro" Greenspan quantifica em 1/3 as probabilidades de uma recessão.
"Greenspan Sees`One-Third Probability' of Recession This Year "
By Craig Torres
"arch 6 (Bloomberg) -- Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said there's a ``one-third probability'' of a U.S. recession this year and that the current expansion won't have the staying power of its decade-long predecessor.
``We are in the sixth year of a recovery; imbalances can emerge as a result,'' Greenspan, 81, said in an interview yesterday at his office in downtown Washington. ``Ten-year recoveries have been part of a much broader global phenomenon. The historically normal business cycle is much shorter'' and is likely to be this time, he added.
Greenspan's outlook contrasts with the prediction of his successor Ben S. Bernanke, who told Congress last week that the economy may strengthen this year. Bernanke's upbeat assessment helped steady stock markets on Feb. 28 after a plunge the day before that some traders attribute partly to Greenspan's musing that a recession couldn't be ruled out.
``It is possible that we can have a recession at the end of this year,'' said Greenspan, who ran the central bank for 18 years until January 2006. Bernanke, 53, declined to comment.
Little more than a year after leaving the central bank, Greenspan is returning to economic forecasting, a role he enjoyed before entering government service in 1974, during the administration of President Gerald R. Ford. He isn't trying to predict a number for gross domestic product or inflation: He's trying to capture the trend and when it might be about to change.
A Continuing Expansion?
Private-sector economists and policy makers are calling for the expansion, which began in 2001, to continue. The Fed expects the economy to grow between 2.5 percent and 3 percent this year, and 2.75 percent and 3 percent next year, according to forecasts presented to Congress last month.
Greenspan said he has been careful to avoid making life difficult for his successor.
His contracts with clients stipulate that there will be no reporters present and no recordings. He said he tries to have an exchange with an audience, where he often learns something that helps him hone skills he has worked on for 50 years.
``I was aware of the problem that if I stayed public, I could make it difficult for Ben,'' he said. ``For the most part it has worked. I was beginning to feel quite comfortable that I was fully back to the anonymity I was seeking.''
`Surprised'
``I was surprised at this recent episode,'' he added.
Investors may have taken notice of his comments on Feb. 26 because they considered them prescient. The day after he mentioned the risk of a recession to a Hong Kong audience on Feb. 26, a Commerce Department report showed sales of non-military capital goods excluding aircraft dropped 2.7 percent in January, the biggest decline since September 2001. Orders slumped by the most in three years.
Broader capital spending is also weakening. Corporate purchases of equipment and software declined at an annual rate of 3.2 percent last quarter, the biggest decline since the final three months of 2002, according to separate Commerce Department figures.
Greenspan said he doesn't believe that so-called point forecasts, where economists hone their outlook down to decimal points, can be accurately made in the near-term. ``We really can't forecast'' the economy over the next two years, he said.
Tracking Inventories
Greenspan worked for what is now the Conference Board, a New York-based business group, as an industrial-metals analyst from 1950 to 1953. Tracking inventories, he was able to come up with a model of final demand. He expanded that model to textiles, aluminum and oil.
He found that large-scale models that used aggregate data averaged out the nuances and changes he could pick up at an industry level. Finally, some of the assumptions of firms' pricing power simply didn't hold as the post-war years unfolded.
``I realized I was trying to see how the world works in the context of individual entities,'' Greenspan said.
Under his chairmanship, the Fed staff began to collect figures on capital-spending plans, surveying firms directly from the Board of Governors' building in Washington.
``We certainly devoted some resources to our own gathering of anecdotal information,'' said Michael Prell, former head of the Division of Research and Statistics, the central forecasting unit at the Fed. ``Every other week, we would contact some subset of a sizeable group of firms.''
Greenspan's unique discipline both frustrated and amazed Fed colleagues, especially those trained in sophisticated economic modeling.
`Idiosyncratic'
``His great value is that he has an idiosyncratic approach,'' said Laurence Meyer, a Fed governor from 1996 to 2002 who often sparred with the chairman over the outlook. ``The reason why Greenspan gets and deserves disproportionate weight is that he doesn't get caught up in all the themes that tie together in a consensus forecast. He is looking at all the different strands of data.''
Once, Meyer said, he was sitting in a meeting with the Fed staff discussing the inflation implications of import prices. Out of nowhere, he recalled, Greenspan asked about steel-ingot prices. Meyer said he wasn't even sure what an ingot was.
``Why would I ever even ask that?'' Meyer, a founder and vice chairman of the model-based forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers LLC in St. Louis, said in an interview.
Macroeconomic Advisers isn't forecasting a recession this year, and Meyer said markets ``over-responded'' to what the former chairman said.
``Who wouldn't agree that it is possible we could have a recession?'' says Meyer. ``I think we are closer to the middle of an expansion than the end of an expansion.'' "
(in www.bloomberg.com)
Hoje, a Bloomberg noticia que "o maestro" Greenspan quantifica em 1/3 as probabilidades de uma recessão.
"Greenspan Sees`One-Third Probability' of Recession This Year "
By Craig Torres
"arch 6 (Bloomberg) -- Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said there's a ``one-third probability'' of a U.S. recession this year and that the current expansion won't have the staying power of its decade-long predecessor.
``We are in the sixth year of a recovery; imbalances can emerge as a result,'' Greenspan, 81, said in an interview yesterday at his office in downtown Washington. ``Ten-year recoveries have been part of a much broader global phenomenon. The historically normal business cycle is much shorter'' and is likely to be this time, he added.
Greenspan's outlook contrasts with the prediction of his successor Ben S. Bernanke, who told Congress last week that the economy may strengthen this year. Bernanke's upbeat assessment helped steady stock markets on Feb. 28 after a plunge the day before that some traders attribute partly to Greenspan's musing that a recession couldn't be ruled out.
``It is possible that we can have a recession at the end of this year,'' said Greenspan, who ran the central bank for 18 years until January 2006. Bernanke, 53, declined to comment.
Little more than a year after leaving the central bank, Greenspan is returning to economic forecasting, a role he enjoyed before entering government service in 1974, during the administration of President Gerald R. Ford. He isn't trying to predict a number for gross domestic product or inflation: He's trying to capture the trend and when it might be about to change.
A Continuing Expansion?
Private-sector economists and policy makers are calling for the expansion, which began in 2001, to continue. The Fed expects the economy to grow between 2.5 percent and 3 percent this year, and 2.75 percent and 3 percent next year, according to forecasts presented to Congress last month.
Greenspan said he has been careful to avoid making life difficult for his successor.
His contracts with clients stipulate that there will be no reporters present and no recordings. He said he tries to have an exchange with an audience, where he often learns something that helps him hone skills he has worked on for 50 years.
``I was aware of the problem that if I stayed public, I could make it difficult for Ben,'' he said. ``For the most part it has worked. I was beginning to feel quite comfortable that I was fully back to the anonymity I was seeking.''
`Surprised'
``I was surprised at this recent episode,'' he added.
Investors may have taken notice of his comments on Feb. 26 because they considered them prescient. The day after he mentioned the risk of a recession to a Hong Kong audience on Feb. 26, a Commerce Department report showed sales of non-military capital goods excluding aircraft dropped 2.7 percent in January, the biggest decline since September 2001. Orders slumped by the most in three years.
Broader capital spending is also weakening. Corporate purchases of equipment and software declined at an annual rate of 3.2 percent last quarter, the biggest decline since the final three months of 2002, according to separate Commerce Department figures.
Greenspan said he doesn't believe that so-called point forecasts, where economists hone their outlook down to decimal points, can be accurately made in the near-term. ``We really can't forecast'' the economy over the next two years, he said.
Tracking Inventories
Greenspan worked for what is now the Conference Board, a New York-based business group, as an industrial-metals analyst from 1950 to 1953. Tracking inventories, he was able to come up with a model of final demand. He expanded that model to textiles, aluminum and oil.
He found that large-scale models that used aggregate data averaged out the nuances and changes he could pick up at an industry level. Finally, some of the assumptions of firms' pricing power simply didn't hold as the post-war years unfolded.
``I realized I was trying to see how the world works in the context of individual entities,'' Greenspan said.
Under his chairmanship, the Fed staff began to collect figures on capital-spending plans, surveying firms directly from the Board of Governors' building in Washington.
``We certainly devoted some resources to our own gathering of anecdotal information,'' said Michael Prell, former head of the Division of Research and Statistics, the central forecasting unit at the Fed. ``Every other week, we would contact some subset of a sizeable group of firms.''
Greenspan's unique discipline both frustrated and amazed Fed colleagues, especially those trained in sophisticated economic modeling.
`Idiosyncratic'
``His great value is that he has an idiosyncratic approach,'' said Laurence Meyer, a Fed governor from 1996 to 2002 who often sparred with the chairman over the outlook. ``The reason why Greenspan gets and deserves disproportionate weight is that he doesn't get caught up in all the themes that tie together in a consensus forecast. He is looking at all the different strands of data.''
Once, Meyer said, he was sitting in a meeting with the Fed staff discussing the inflation implications of import prices. Out of nowhere, he recalled, Greenspan asked about steel-ingot prices. Meyer said he wasn't even sure what an ingot was.
``Why would I ever even ask that?'' Meyer, a founder and vice chairman of the model-based forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers LLC in St. Louis, said in an interview.
Macroeconomic Advisers isn't forecasting a recession this year, and Meyer said markets ``over-responded'' to what the former chairman said.
``Who wouldn't agree that it is possible we could have a recession?'' says Meyer. ``I think we are closer to the middle of an expansion than the end of an expansion.'' "
(in www.bloomberg.com)
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