CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

"Mixed Signals Mean More Meandering"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
3/1/2007 12:08 PM EST

"Mixed Signs Won't Help Fed Cause We're getting too many mixed signs. Now we have gold going higher. That's not right.

We have the purchasing managers index and personal incomes signaling strength.

We need a united consensus that the Fed will cut to make this market work higher, and so far today, we don't have it. Without that, you have the propensity for this free-for-all where nobody knows a trend and the consumer index can't provide the leadership we need.

Not a cause for panic, which, for the second time this week, has failed as a strategy. Just a cause for more meandering.

Meanwhile, the endless chatter about strategies the media does not understand -- read: the yen carry trade -- makes the situation all the harder because it's impossible to refute or dismiss it as a problem.

Next we'll hear about the Chinese selling bonds! "

(in www.realmoney.com)

O EUA puxaram um pouco pelos fechos na Europa (caso contrário penso que teriamos fechos com quedas acima dos 2%). Mas acho que ainda estamos longe do fim das quedas (apesar de esperar algumas sessões de alivio).

Cumprimentos

JCS

"We're Not Done"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
3/1/2007 10:10 AM EST

"Ugh. We didn't go down enough. Drat.

We needed to get really hammered here. We needed to take out 12,000 on the Dow, and we didn't.

That means we aren't done.

That means this rally off the bottom was just the curbs allowing us to catch our breath so we can regroup and sell.

If we'd had a turn in Europe, I would feel better. Instead, what we'll get is everyone who bought when the Dow was down 200 points selling again.

This is choppy territory. I'd sell what you bought at bottom.

Get ready to start all over again. I know that this is laborious and time-consuming, but this problem started overseas. It's not going to end with the economy that's in the worst shape of most of the developed world. "

(in wwww.realmoney.com)

E aqui ficam mais...

"Still Need a Down Open"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
3/1/2007 9:11 AM EST

"A down opening is what's needed. We needed more fear. The close Wednesday was nothing special. We're only going to get leadership from the defensives. That's the only safe place so far.

The new fear is the unwinding of the yen carry trade, which is not what's going to give us that much-needed down open.

What's doing it is a sense that we have to see what the bottom really was. We're not there yet.

Plus, SunTrust (STI - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) ratchets things up with this earnings revision, telling you that things are in more of a need of a rate cut than most people think.

I come back, though, to liking a down opening. These up openings are dreadful.

I also like how suddenly no one's a bull. How classic is that?

Fear taking hold is better than confidence here. I am sure the bears want to take the Dow down through 12,000. They can do it if they want to. But I don't believe it will stay down there long.

One-third is bottoming. The rest comes later."

(in www.realmoney.com)


"Tech Can't Provide Leadership"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
3/1/2007 8:27 AM EST

Choppy here. Why not?

We lived off the semiconductor story with Analog Devices (ADI - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) for a week, but we haven't had any new information in tech.

We have Oracle (ORCL - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) doing another deal as its stock slips, and I think the negative from Oracle will overshadow the excitement from Hyperion (HYSL - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating).

We have an in-line quarter from Ciena (CIEN - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) and more sloppiness from Nortel (NT - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating).

Tech just can't provide any leadership here.

I think that may be the crucial problem in this market. We seem to have lost Hewlett-Packard (HPQ - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) right now. We are not getting the pop we should have from good news or upgrades: Witness the muted reaction to BEA Systems (BEAS - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), Sun (SUNW - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) and Brocade (BRCD - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) upgrades.

Dell (DELL - commentary - Cramer's Take) won't save us.

I am not seeing a big turn in cell phones, and I have little conviction on PCs.

What's really going on here?

I think it is the recognition that, a month late, we are focused on the negative effect of the seasonality of tech. It's just not the time. Without tech, we lack leadership.

Meanwhile, UBS upgrades Bristol-Myers (BMY - commentary - Cramer's Take), and that's where the money's going. "

(in www.realmoney.com)

Aqui fica mais um artigo do Cramer publicado mesmo antes da abertura.

"Trade Only What's Bottomed"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
3/1/2007 9:27 AM EST


"People want to blame the selloff on psychology. They want to blame the selloff on hidden disasters. They want to blame the selloff on worries that the system is collapsing.

The selloff really involves short-term rates that are too high plus a sense that we have to find out if there's a real bottom down there and last, a sense that we are so due, a la May of last year, we have to go down.

I wish we hadn't been up Wednesday. I wish we had opened down. Then we would have far forwarded the day. Oh well.

I just want to caution people that down 3% is a lot of points, even though it doesn't come out to much of a percentage change. Unless you split the Dow, get used to big numbers when it comes to the downside, but not concomitant percentages.

Can you trade it? You can only trade the third of it that's bottoming. Everything else is too dicey and too easily knocked down by the bears. Why? Because without knowing the real reasons for the selloff, you can create anything you want.

I just told Gregg Greenberg on Wall Street Confidential (click here to watch the free video) that I could craft dozens of reasons to knock us down, many of them true.

I like 4% yielders and I like soft goods.

The rest is sold to you. "

(in www.realmoney.com)

Numa tradução muito "liberal" podes dizer que prime é bom e subprime fica abaixo do bom.

Neste caso subprime lender é um banco que empresta $$ a pessoas que não conseguiam pedir $$ a bancos grandes. Normalmente têm associado maior risco de não conseguirem pagar o empréstimo...

Existem diversos grandes bancos que têm filiais que fazem este tipo de empréstimos, mas a gd maioria são independentes...

A gd vantagem deste negócio é que as taxas cobradas são mais elevadas do que nos outros tipos de empréstimos, mas como é óbvio, o risco de não receberes o $$ que emprestaste é tb maior.

Um abraço
Nuno

desculpem o meu "péssimo" inglês, mas não encontro em lado nenhum uma tradução para este termo.

o que é um subprime?!?!

obrigado pela ajuda!!!

"When the Bottom Will Come"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
3/1/2007 7:21 AM EST


"Don't believe what Ben Bernanke says. Don't listen to what the White House says. We have a slowdown. And we want a slowdown.

I listened to both Bernanke and Allan Hubbard from the president's economic council yesterday, and I hate to be so blunt, but are these guys checking out the tape? Are they seeing that the working class just got shut out of the home market with the speculators? Did they see those new-home-sales numbers? Have they checked the weakness in the auto markets? Do they realize that much of the growth for American companies is coming from the Rest of the World?

No. Which is why the defensives bottomed and why a stock like AmBev (ABV - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), a good company, could soar 3% on a decent quarter -- a beer company, so right for this market.

We've had most of the problems masked by private equity money. Take Dow (DOW - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) and Alcoa (AA - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): These stocks would be appreciably lower if it weren't for the rumors, as would be their whole sectors.

Now, this is not related to China. But the mineral group has been buoyed by China, and when you cool that stock market, you may be cooling some of the economy.

But things can't fall into place yet. When you have companies like New Century (NEW - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) and NovaStar (NFI - commentary - Cramer's Take) withdrawing guidance, you have to understand they don't have a clue. They are as clueless as Hubbard!

We won't get a bottom until a major public subprime lender goes bust. Until that happens, you are not going to put in a bottom. The sequence is pretty clear: subprime crisis, Fed cuts. It will happen.

But you have to get deeper into the crisis and own more Altria (MO - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), Procter & Gamble (PG - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) and Clorox (CLX - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) in the interim.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Altria"

(in www.realmoney.com)