CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

Pessoalmente, também considero que para os touros seria bem melhor uma abertura bem vermelha.

"Don't Trust the Up Opening"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
2/28/2007 7:41 AM EST

"Why can't you just buy the up opening? Why am I saying you just might have missed it if you didn't step up into the miasma of yesterday?

One of the main reasons why I feel that way is because we saw the complacency jarred. When that happens, there are people who look at their statements, see the gains and get fearful and greedy.

This is not 2000. But people have learned somewhat from it. They know that big gains can vanish. They also know, as of yesterday, that things are fragile on Wall Street.

That means the most likely response -- even if it is wrong, and I think it is -- will be to sell, not buy. People will not think there's a sale at the Wall Street Department Store; they will think that whatever merchandise is for sale is dangerous to the touch. Or, on a more benign scale, they'll see a sweater with a hole in it instead of a discounted sweater.

That means the up opening is too dicey; it brings sellers out of the woodwork, not buyers. I don't trust it. And even if I did, the market will already be too up from yesterday's lows to feel confident that it will stand. "

In www.realmoney.com)

Resina Escreveu:O que me "irrita no meio disto tudo" é que quando acontecem estas situações tão obvias vêm proclamar logo as suas palavras...
E nem vale a pena comentar o jornalista...

LOL

Resina, foste a gota de água!...

Ulisses Pereira Escreveu:D1as os tipos que prevêem estes dias nas vésperas deles acontecerem são Nostradamus.

Hoje aconteceu um episódio giro: Um analista veio a um canal financeiro proclamar: "Estão a ver? Eu tinha avisaod que isto ia acontecer". E o jornalista até o aplaudiu e tudo mas passado uns 2 minutos alguém os lembrou que os mercados estavam acima do nível que estavam antes desse "aviso" do analista.

Um abraço,
Ulisses

Ulisses, é obvio que nestas alturas, os Profetas acabam por se sentirem realizados...
O que me "irrita no meio disto tudo" é que quando acontecem estas situações tão obvias vêm proclamar logo as suas palavras...
E nem vale a pena comentar o jornalista...
Abraço

Ulisses,

Já para não falar que alguns desses supostos "analistas", se lhes dessem 5k euros para as mãos para investirem durante um ano, na volta tinham rentabilidades negativas no final.

Falam, falam....

Uma coisa é a teoria, outra é a práctica.
A teoria é a base de tudo, sempre mo disseram e subscrevo, mas depois há que colocar as mãos na massa e passar à practica, seja em que actividade for.

Bom, então aceito o elogiu. Até acho o Nostradamus um gajo porreiro

É que eu comecei a avisar à uma semana atrás... basta veres os meus posts.

Mas ok, pode-se sempre dizer que foi sorte...

Ou na volta sou mesmo bruxo!




















































BUUUUU!

D1as os tipos que prevêem estes dias nas vésperas deles acontecerem são Nostradamus.

Hoje aconteceu um episódio giro: Um analista veio a um canal financeiro proclamar: "Estão a ver? Eu tinha avisaod que isto ia acontecer". E o jornalista até o aplaudiu e tudo mas passado uns 2 minutos alguém os lembrou que os mercados estavam acima do nível que estavam antes desse "aviso" do analista.

Um abraço,
Ulisses

Jim Cramer 2/27/2007 4:15 PM EST Escreveu:
You didn't even have time to panic.

The system failed us, breaking down too fast for you to panic.

We totally collapsed between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. ET, dropping 200 points. All the circuit breakers and all of the rules that were put into place years ago after 1987 just utterly failed.

Jim Cramer 2/27/2007 3:10 PM EST Escreveu:It's been years since I saw a selloff like this. This feels like a combination of 1987 and 9/11.

Pelos vistos, 1987 é um número que volta ao assunto. Pena ele não ter falado assim antes de acontecer...

Este cramer é tão bull que mesmo em dia de crashar manda os seus palpites. O homem não sossega mesmo. E é teimoso, acho que essa é mesmo a sua principal característica.

"This Action Feeds the Fed Formula"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
2/27/2007 2:45 PM EST

"There is a cavalry. But it won't come this minute.

I am returning to my bullish thesis, the bedrock of which is that there is going to be a worldwide slowdown coupled with a subprime crisis that will make the Federal Reserve act.

But the Fed doesn't look at the screen, see red ink and say we have to cut rates.

Not even though the Greenspan years did feature some of that near the end. That's how we got so low that we were able to take rates up 17 times and still not hit top.

Today's action, exacerbated by the machines and their program trading, and the fact that we have moved up so much that you can't just buy more yet without ruining your basis, has made people reluctant to bid.

I understand that. The cavalry hasn't been called; it doesn't even know it's needed.

But remember my thesis: Slowdown plus crisis equals cut rates equals the market going up. You are already hearing about the latter. What a joke, but true.

You have to have the first two before you get the third. "

(in www.realmoney.com)

"Bid Against the Machines"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
2/27/2007 3:10 PM EST

"We are in machine hell. There's selling that seems to be linked to the selling. Just amazing, just a free fall.

We dropped 200 points in a heartbeat. No buyers or overwhelming buyers. Not even imbalances, just a total takeover by the sellers.

It's been years since I saw a selloff like this. This feels like a combination of 1987 and 9/11.

I think that you couldn't get down there to buy.

I think that you have to take into account that the selling is so fast and severe that you have to bid. You have to bid for something.

The machines have gone nuts. And you have to find your faves and buy. "

(in www.realmoney.com)

"The System Failed Us"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
2/27/2007 4:15 PM EST

"You didn't even have time to panic.

The system failed us, breaking down too fast for you to panic.

We totally collapsed between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. ET, dropping 200 points. All the circuit breakers and all of the rules that were put into place years ago after 1987 just utterly failed.

Then we had the backdraft, and it happened so fast we don't yet know how it went wrong. But it did, with the sellers' heavy tinder. Maybe that exacerbated the hard-selling ETFs. Whatever it was, the wick caught and then flared -- when we thought we were fireproof.

The buyers, and there are plenty of them, simply couldn't get to the floor fast enough to buy and put out some of that selling.

In the old days, when things were sane, we would have had order imbalances, a stoppage of trading. We didn't get that today. We got nothing. We got nothing but a gap, and it reminded us of the old days, when we used to have to have bids way underneath. In other words, be ready to buy because of the whims of sellers.

But there's another difference now. You can force the market down. The old rules put into place in the 1930s, the ones that were meant to stop motivated sellers from breaking the market are all gone now, taken out by a complacent Securities and Exchange Commission that never dreamed of what could happen today. My sources indicate that a big options trade went awry and some concentrated ETF selling simply cut through this market as easily as a knife through butter.

You only have a couple of protections from the whims of a broken system:

A company that pays you a dividend that is equal to or better than Treasuries after taxes is a good defense.
Or you want a stock that has a valuation so low that you know it's a bargain -- and its management knows it's a bargain (read: it's buying back stock right here).
Last chance: a company that is so defensive in nature that even if there's a worldwide slowdown, it will meet expectations regardless: Coke (KO - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), Pepsi (PEP - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), Altria (MO - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), Kellogg (K - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), General Mills (GIS - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), Clorox (CLX - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) and Colgate (CL - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating).
If you don't anything that fits one of those three criteria (I'd rather have two or three per company) you will not be OK for now. That's because we are now going to have people who just say, "Wow this is too crazy, let me out of here!"

But nobody ever made a dime panicking. This time will be no different, but only if you are shrewd about what won't hurt you and what can work in a volatile and down environment.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Altria. "

(in www.realmoney.com)

crash day made in "Hedge Funds"?

cá fica a versão de Kenneth Tower:

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Tuesday's equities rout appears to be linked to the trading patterns of hedge funds, according to Kenneth Tower, chief market strategist at CyberTrade.
"I suspect this is characteristic of our hedge fund-dominated marketplace," Tower said. "They use program trades and options and futures.
And when they all run for the door at the same time, you get lots of selling pressure."

e o dia parece acabar em ... splashhhh

a comparação já vai com 17 Setembro de 2001


Nasdaq Composite drops 100 points
By Tomi Kilgore Last Update: 3:09 PM ET Feb 27, 2007

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) plunged 100 points to 2,404, and was on track for its first triple-digit one-day point loss since Sept. 17, 2001. On that day, the Nasdaq fell 115.83 points after re-opening from a four-session hiatus following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. The technology-rich index has now turned negative for 2007, falling below the 2006 close of 2,415.29. Within the Nasdaq stock market, declining issues dominated advancing issues by a 28 to 2 margin.
---
Dow drops over 500 points
By Tomi Kilgore Last Update: 3:07 PM ET Feb 27, 2007

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Dow industrials ($INDU) plunged 502 points at 12,130, with all 30 components shedding more than 2%. The Dow is headed for the worst one-day point loss since Sept. 17, 2001. On that day, the blue chip barometer dropped 684.81 points after re-opening from a four-session hiatus following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

fica a observação do briefing.com

The S&P 500 is down for a fifth consecutive session, its longest losing streak in three years.

Sem duvida Info as correccoes já andavam a fazer.se sentir do outro lado. Será hoje dia de rebound e inicio de nova ida a máximos?

hummmm

por acaso já repararam que os states não começaram a cair hoje?

faz 1 semana que eles começaram a "cortar caminho"

é aquela semana que soa a: "mas caiem porquê? onde? quando?"

e o resto do mundo passou ao lado... e eles toda a semama em " correction... tion aqui tion acolá"
e ontem alguém fez caso ao GreenMan?... alguns pelos States

e o rastilho no CurtoPrazo, a nível mundial, veio da China... sobreaquecida...... BUMMMMM


MAS o teste virá no rebound destes dias.... aí se verá a força do PC... upsss do BULL

pela publicação desse sério aviso.

Por vezes é importante que os mais experientes trader's do mercado português nos abram os olhos.

E devemos estar a assistir à maior queda diária desde há muitos meses. Não me lembro de outra deste tipo (2%) há muito tempo

E aqui fica o terceiro dos artigos escritos esta manhã pelo Cramer.

"Remember 'Slowdown'?"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
2/27/2007 8:42 AM EST

"You are going to hear one thing loudly today: global slowdown. You don't get a 9% decline in China's market without a clarion call from people saying, "Interest rates in our country are too high."

Throughout this most recent selloff, all we have heard is that the Federal Reserve won't cut because the economy is too strong.

You don't feel that way when you think that the world's most important growth engine, at the margin, China, may be slowing.

Maybe what we have on hand is a mini-May 2006, where the commodities get clocked and we get a quick rotation into the soft-goods stocks. If this is the case, watch Coca-Cola (KO - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), because this stock has just gotten institutional backing from three separate firms.

Others that should work: Procter & Gamble (PG - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), AIG (AIG - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) and Pepsi (PEP - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) all of which have been totally stalled on fears that the economy is too strong.

Slowdown hasn't been in the vocabulary for a month.

It's back, starting today.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long AIG and Johnson & Johnson. "

"Look Past the Toxic Cloud"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
2/27/2007 8:07 AM EST

"It's amazing how the bad headlines take center stage on a day when we all know the markets are going to open down. Reserves aren't high enough! Housing sector to be knocked by mortgages! Emerging markets contagion! China imploding! Afghanistan and Iran looking like 24 on a bad hour with no Jack! Big challenges to the airlines! Downgrades! Holy cow, it's horrible out there.

Yes, it is horrible, maybe even 3%-4% horrible, although I doubt that. Maybe it's as horrible as the selloff last spring that got many hedge funds short, and they stayed short through the ensuing rally. That's because the end-of-the-world prism is awfully hard to shake when you are in the vortex.

I am not presuming there will be no vortex. There's enough bad news out there to send it down more than it looks like right now.

What I am urging you to do, what I want to do for Action Alerts Plus.com, is pick when the market's down 1.5%.

I think the litany of bad news looks like the litany of a lot of other bad situations. Three days from now, the prospect of a Fed easing will seem a lot closer. That will cause people to start covering. If you aren't in at least some stocks that you have avoided on the way up, I believe that, like May-June-July, you might have missed a chance to make the easier money that could be ahead of us when the toxic cloud of smoke disappears. "

(in www.realmoney.com)

"A Day for the Bears"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
2/27/2007 7:36 AM EST

"At least we won't get crushed by an up opening that will lead to disappointment. We will get hammered from the get-go.

We have all of the usual suspects: the subprime morass, which is perennially supposed to be spreading to every banker and broker; the housing chaos; and now China in the mix.

When China slows, the whole mineral complex collapses, despite the earnings. The mineral complex has been red-hot, but that's all China, so you can expect a pulverizing today there.

So maybe, just maybe, after four down days, we will at last catch some sort of a washout. With financials bad, minerals bad, and tech just sagging here, you could see us mimic the European markets with a down percent-plus day.

Oh, and it's painful. I own NYSE Group (NYX - commentary - Cramer's Take) stock, which has gone from hero to villain overnight, and people are still dumping on it.

I thought Ceradyne (CRDN - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) was a good quarter -- no, it was a good quarter -- but the bulls keep morphing to bears, so another bid downgrade is coming.

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) is now under $40, which seems incredible to me because that quarter does not merit an 8% pullback.

But it is what it is. The selloffs been mild so far, and we need to scare people, and today's action will be rough.

How will we know when things are all clear? I would watch for the Procter & Gamble (PG - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating)/Anheuser-Busch (BUD - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating)/Lilly (LLY - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating)/Abbott (ABT - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) complex. I think safety stabilizes first.

Then I would look at the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor index, or SOX, to see if that bottoms, as it showed some strength last week. I am also checking out the banking index, or BKX, for a bottom today. Oh, and if you want to know when to get aggressive, wait for a break in gold -- not a $2 break, but a real break, 10, 20, 30 dollars' worth.

We've been weak, but not so weak that there's been a give-up. It's been too painless. Today's a day for the bears, for Doug Kass, who nailed this one yesterday.

Too early to buy until it's down a percent, then worth a look.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long NYSE Group and Hewlett-Packard. "

(in www.realmoney.com)