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[Ulisses Pereira]

"Apply the Yo-Yo Rule to Tech Now"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
1/18/2007 9:03 AM EST


"Tough to say "Nope, that doesn't work." I remember when Matt Jacobs, my research director at my old hedge fund, would come to me with tech ideas right now, this week of the year, and I would just wave my hand for him to get out of my face. Like, Just get lost, man. Stop trying to hurt me.



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He took it personally, of course. Who wouldn't? Who would like being told that all of that work on Research In Motion (RIMM - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) or Network Appliance (NTAP - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) or Western Digital (WDC - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) was for naught?

But I knew it, because my partner at the time, Jeff Berkowitz, had run the February Goldman Sachs technology conference when he worked for Goldman, my alma mater. The idea of the meeting, held in early February, being the moment that tech had already peaked was so ingrained that while he was at Goldman, he made up yo-yos with the buy and sell points for tech on them. I am not kidding. Yo-yos!

It was Jeff who gave me the yo-yo when he started. If he had contributed only that in his 10 years with me, it would have been enough. I kept that yo-yo on my desk for years to remind me no new tech positions now.

Sure, some will be built to last. I believe you can buy Apple (AAPL - commentary - Cramer's Take) because that guidance was just plain insulting. You don't want to leave Microsoft (MSFT - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) or Hewlett-Packard (HPQ - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) because of Vista. Google's (GOOG - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) the most powerful earnings story out there. Cisco (CSCO - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating)? Immunized by downgrades and some terrific product cycles.

But in the end, the yo-yo controls.

Tech's to be sold, not bought, right here. It can be traded. Not owned. Not until the dog days of August. "

(in www.realmoney.com)