Cramer lança as suas previsões para o Dow em 2007. Por curiosidade, refira-se que as previsões há um ano atrás quanto ao valor do Dow no final deste ano parecem vir a bater quase milimetricamente. Amanhã publicará o final deste artigo.
"Get Even More Bullish on the Dow"
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
12/26/2006 1:50 PM EST
"The sin of not being bullish enough is not one that I have been guilty of very often, but 2006 found me on that side of the fence when I did my annual predictions for the Dow Jones Industrial Average components. I was just about bullish enough on the average itself, though: The Dow closed at 12,471.32 on Dec. 19, just ahead of my 12,470 total.
Seems comical now, but at the time, I was shocked at how bullish that forecast seemed. Now I'm only slightly -- and pleasantly -- more surprised at just how positive I am on the Big 30's prospects for the next year now that I've sat down and quantified it.
You see, I expect the Dow to grow about 17% in 2007, to 14,548. Read on to find out why.
3M
Flat in '07
3M (MMM - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): This one's not lent to easy analysis. The company dropped a bomb in the second quarter and then made a nice recovery in the third, but who knows what could happen with this odd agglomeration of companies. I don't trust management to deliver, but the company itself perks along nicely. I bet it will finish unchanged next year. There's just not enough to work with here and a CEO who is too unseasoned to take the company where it has to go.
Alcoa
Won't be public
Alcoa (AA - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): This one's easy. It won't be public by the end of 2007. This management team has had its chance. Alcoa has to be the only major mineral company that's done absolutely nothing during this amazing commodity boom. Someone else will get a chance to make something of Alcoa in 2007. I see the company going out north of $40.
Altria
Breakup bound
Altria (MO - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): Nobody seemed to notice, but the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, one of the most important federal courts in the land, pretty much destroyed the right of plaintiffs' lawyers to put these disparate class actions together, like the one that is haunting Altria in Brooklyn, N.Y., involving light cigarettes. When that case is overturned, Altria will move to break into three parts: Altria Domestic, Altria International and Kraft (KFT - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating). All three will benefit from not being with each other, particularly Kraft. I see these three parts getting you to $110 rather quickly.
American Express
Headed to $72
American Express (AXP - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): This company seems to put on a quiet 20% every year, at least, since Ken Chenault took it over. He's a quiet exec, doing his job, not seeking the limelight -- and what a remarkable job he's done. Next year will be still one more great year, because the credit-card cachet never abates and the company will find new ways to slice its brimming customer base. My price target on this one: $72.
AIG
Now Mr. Clean
AIG (AIG - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): I own American International Group for Action Alerts PLUS because people don't understand that the company is now Mr. Clean, certified by the new governor of New York before he left his state attorney general post for the governor's mansion. So what is this 12% grower with a terrific business in China doing still selling at 12 times earnings? Some of the cause is the perception that the regulation has hampered its business. Wrong! The other drawback: the perceived selling overhang of defrocked Maurice Hank Greenberg. I don't care about that, either. Three multiple points tacked on to the current price-to-earnings ratio plus an upside surprise owing to no major tsunami or hurricane payoffs should lift the stock to $95.
AT&T
Knows how to do a deal
AT&T (T - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): So AT&T finally gets to merge with BellSouth (BLS - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) and the result is a firing binge that explodes earnings without denting customer service. Unlike Sprint (S - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), AT&T knows how to do a deal. I see the combined company adding 6 points to T's price as the synergies flow through and the dividends increase.
Boeing
Monopoly player?
Boeing (BA - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): In 2007, I believe Airbus will admit the sad truth that it can't make the big planes it promised so many. That would allow Boeing to become something it has always wanted to be: a monopolist. And what a great time to be a monopolist! Labor costs are down, raw material costs have stabilized and prices can be raised. Some think this stock has peaked; they ain't seen nothing yet. I like the prospects for a 30% increase and a price of $120, made up in big increments at the reporting of each quarterly upside surprise.
Caterpillar
Second-half surge
Caterpillar (CAT - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): They killed CAT this year because of housing. I believe the first half of 2007 will look much like the last half of 2006, but this time with the engines business stalling out, too. That's because a change in environmental laws led to pullthrough of orders into 2006 in that important market. That, plus the leveling of oil at a price that doesn't spur enough alternatives, will weigh on Caterpillar. But the second half will be more bountiful because housing will have bottomed and the engine orders will flow back. Look for nothing until July and then a quick spurt to new highs, perhaps even $90, as the raw cost of steel, now that tariffs are removed, flows through to the bottom line.
Citi
Needs a new leader
Citigroup (C - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): The rumblings of Citigroup will be heard, and Chuck Prince will be gone by year-end 2007. The market thirsts for a big-thinking banker at the helm of this ship to augment the new operations chief, and the market will get it. I believe Citigroup will trade to $63 on improved management and the concomitant prospects.
Coca-Cola
Fizzing up to $55
Coca-Cola (KO - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): The new management at Coca-Cola actually has something going for it -- not something that can take the company up too much, but certainly something that can take it to the mid-$50s on solid single-digit growth and a buyback that never quits. That dividend could be increased mightily, too. How about $55 at this time next year?
DuPont
Sticky situation
DuPont (DD - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): This one's a quandary. The stock quietly moved up almost 20% when oil moved down, and its earnings flowed up because of price increases that stuck. That raw-cost win might not be repeated throughout 2007, but it will still help during the first half of the year. The stock also just got too cheap, with that juicy 4% yield that now gives you 3% because of price appreciation. I see only a 10% gain for DuPont in 2007, and that might even be repealed by year-end. How about $53?
ExxonMobil
Fund darlingExxonMobil (XOM - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) has become the mutual funds' favorite play, even though so many other oils are so much cheaper, including Chevron (CVX - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) and ConocoPhillips (COP - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating). Still the multiple's only 12, with 9% earnings growth baked in at these oil prices, so let's say the stock adds on another 5 points. I know, disappointing, but what a run! Eighty's about all it can muster in 2007, though, without oil going through $70, and I don't see that happening.
GE
Watch the dividend
General Electric (GE - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): This one finally got legs when it decided to boost the dividend much more than it has for the past five years, 12% vs. 9%. I believe this is just the beginning of the big boosts, and that the company can take its yield to 4% without much problem, particularly when it unloads plastics, gets the benefit of all the Zucker-led changes at NBC and quits the inanely large buyback that did nothing for shareholders. Still, the stock's not cheap: I'd take GE to $43 and then declare victory.
GM
Going nowhere
General Motors (GM - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): GM had its chance. It had the single greatest turnaround manager in the world on its board, Jerry York, and it spurned him and Tracinda. That said it all. This stock was headed to $40 with the man who turned around Chrysler and IBM on board. Now it is going nowhere, nowhere at all. I believe this stock will close at this level, give or take a handful of points, next year at this time. "
(in
www.realmoney.com)
Enviado: 17/7/2007 14:54