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[Elias]

Finalmente... os 14000!!!

[Elias]

Com o Dow Jones muito perto dos 14000 achei interessante recuperar este post.

É interessante analisar acção a acção e ver que algumas acções superaram em muito as expectativas do autor (por exemplo Alcoa, United Tech) enquanto que noutras para já tudo corre conforme ele previu.

Mas é claro que o ano ainda vai a meio, muita coisa pode acontecer, sobretudo agora que começa a silly season...

[Ulisses Pereira]

E, finalmente, a última parte deste interessante artigo de previsão para as acções do Dow em 2007


"Merck
Not much room to run

Merck (MRK - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): This one has made its move, and while I would be inclined to name it best of breed and believe that it can climb still higher, the breathtaking run from $25 on the cessation of Vioxx bankruptcy worries doesn't leave it much more room. Plus, it lacks anything really huge to make up for patent expirations. I would be surprised if it can escape the $40s, but a weak dollar could take Merck's earnings up to where $50 is a realistic target.

Microsoft
Hungry again

Microsoft (MSFT - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): It's up nicely, but it isn't done. With Xbox drain over and Xbox gain ahead, with Vista at last shipping and with the cash flow proving big even without it, I think Microsoft won't quit until it's at $35. There have been big changes at Mister Softee over the past year, and I believe this company has gotten hungry again. It has also at last put behind it the fears from antitrust litigation. Steve Ballmer has grown into his job and will fight for shareholders, of which he is a big one.

Pfizer
Least favorite

Pfizer (PFE - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): This one is my least favorite stock in the Dow. It's just a nothing company that's too big and has so little that's exciting about it that if it weren't so low, I would say it would go even lower. But the yield will support it, and I suspect it will finish 2007 right around where it's trading as 2006 ends. New CEO, same old problems. What an uninventive company.

P&G
Trapped by the macro

Procter & Gamble (PG - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): Ooh, this one's tough here. You need the economy to slow dramatically to get it moving, and if that happens, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, so no one will want P&G anyway. This is the curse of a great American company; it just can't get anyone to like it enough to take it higher unless the economy's slow and the Fed is tightening, the secret of its success since its bottom in the low $50s. I peg it at $67 for 2007, plus or minus. The company deserves better, but it is trapped by macro considerations.

United Tech
Will stall at $62

United Technologies (UTX - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): It's in the first year of a new CEO. It has already shaded down for the next year, and I believe its outperformance vs. General Electric (GE - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) has at last come to an end. Plus, while its business overseas remains strong, it's the 50% of the business that's domestic that I don't care for. I believe that as we get closer to the presidential election, things will only grow worse for this company. I peg it stalled at $62.

Verizon
Strong, but not showy

Verizon (VZ - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): When the Fed starts cutting rates, that 4%-and-change yield on Verizon is going to look pretty darned good. The company's making its move in video with unclear results, but its wireless business is just plain on fire. And after being a tough and competitive business for so long, Verizon is a darned good one, thanks to the mergers, with barriers to entry for its competitors that will never be surmounted in our lifetimes. That means Verizon has a chance to grow earnings, grow dividends and grow its businesses. Still, I'm going with AT&T for appreciation, and I believe Verizon will creep higher 3 points, max.

Wal-Mart
Just awful

Wal-Mart (WMT - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): Wal-Mart's Wal-Mart. It's staying at $50 or below as long as Lee Scott and his culture of de-aspiration continue to rule. This company will still be picked apart by all of those who know its number is up, whether it be Target (TGT - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) or Costco (COST - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) or J.C. Penney (JCP - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating). An awful company and an awful stock. I think it will go to $50 at year-end on rumors that Scott's out.

Walt Disney
A hit machine

Walt Disney (DIS - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): Doesn't have the properties that afford much growth, but it can keep turning out hits and expanding the premier international entertainment franchise. At some point, this company's going to have to ask itself why it is public. In the interim inertia, the pipeline for television, a weak dollar that will bring more tourists to its expanding theme parks and animation, the cheapest form of movie-making, leave me thinking $40s is a legitimate goal."

(in www.realmoney.com)

[Ulisses Pereira]

Há cerca de meia hora, o Cramer publicou mais uma parte deste artigo. Mas ainda haverá mais.

"Get Even More Bullish on the Dow, Part 3"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
12/28/2006 7:57 AM EST

"Hewlett-Packard
Just getting going

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): This name has been stalled ever since it became clear that Dell (DELL - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) was back. But that's silly. The biggest catalyst in H-P's PC-related history is about to occur: the shipping of Vista. That will take this stock to $50 on the explosion in earnings, thanks to the best-kept secret of this great company: It makes the cheapest and the best PCs. Management is just beginning to get this ship going; it isn't about to run aground in 2007.

Home Depot
Helped by housing's turn

Home Depot (HD - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): I don't like Home Depot. I don't like its management. I don't like how it has made the stores into depressing places that drive me to Costco (COST - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) and Lowe's (LOW - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), even though they are much farther from my house than the Big Orange. Yet even Bob Nardelli can't stop the turn in the housing cycle, and this primo beneficiary could rally a quick $10 on the turn up. That's right, 10 points, making it one of the better performers in the Dow in 2007. I still like Lowe's better, though, and Sears (SHLD - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) much better.

Honeywell
Will show its worth

Honeywell (HON - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): Will someone tell me why Honeywell is still in the low $40s, even though its businesses are getting better and better and it just gave you the big boost in the dividend? That makes no sense to me, no sense at all. Plus, CEO Dave Cote has finally been able to get his arms around all of the trouble he inherited at what had become a very dysfunctional company. I see this stock going to $52 by this time next year as deals, divestitures and cash flow make the worth here obvious, at last, to the market.

Intel
A lucky year
Intel (INTC - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): Only Hewlett-Packard and Microsoft (MSFT - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) will benefit more than Intel from the launch of Vista this year. Of course, Intel should be the biggest beneficiary because it has plenty of inventory to work off. But AMD (AMD - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) is ahead of the pack, and Intel has the same bad management that has plagued it for half a decade. With this group, you are lucky to see $25-$26, but 2007 will be a lucky year, so I bet we'll get that. Too bad this company doesn't have the old team running it; I would put a $30 handle on it if that were the case.

IBM
Show of strength

IBM (IBM - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): It's still cheap at $95, and it will be cheap at $110. That's because the multiple here just can't catch an elevation much beyond a point or two despite the many upside surprises I see for the company this year, including some just from the weaker dollar and others from some very big consulting wins. I like this company and I like the sector, but like everyone else I would like to see some serious back-to-back strong quarters. I bet we get them in 2007.


J&J
Riding to $80

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): The Democrats won't be able to stop the Medicare Part D bounty for the drug companies; the darned thing is too popular. Add to that the fact that the consumer portion of J&J picked up the languishing consumer products division of Pfizer (PFE - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) and knows how to market those goods far better than that once-great former owner. That's why I have been stocking up on J&J for Action Alerts PLUS; I believe 2007 will be a breakout year for it, one of America's best-managed companies. I see an explosion of earnings from the Pfizer products and a multiple that expands with it, and I believe they'll combine to take the stock to $80. That's a big, big move worth riding much higher.

JPMorgan
Limited by management
JPMorgan (JPM - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): Maybe in 2007 we will remember why we liked Jamie Dimon so much. We sure haven't seen anything yet out of the man. His company's stock has languished even as the stocks of other banks, particularly investment banks, have made a good move. I believe the lag in JPMorgan is caused by the combination of the worst of banking and the least impressive work of investment bankers who carry themselves as if they were the best of both. That's a lethal combination of arrogance and not as much competence as they think they have. I see the stock only advancing to $52, max, unless the company gets a bid, which certainly could happen if you are a European bank. I just can't see Dimon going for it, because he is pretty sure of himself -- too sure to be sure!

McDonald's
Chronically undervalued

McDonald's (MCD - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): Even after the move in McDonald's, there's more ahead, maybe much more. I believe this company suffers from chronic undervaluation, given how much better it is than all of its competitors. I see it giving shareholders ever-higher dividends and receiving a much higher multiple on weak-dollar-related earnings. I see the company trading to $55. I'd love to buy this one. "

(in www.realmoney.com)

[Ulisses Pereira]

Quando o Cramer publicar a última parte deste artigo (eu transcrevi as 2 primeiras que já foram publicadas) eu colocarei aqui.

Um abraço,
Ulisses

[XPTOO]

Olá!

a segunda parte deste artigo já foi publicada?
se alguém tiver disponível agradecia que publicasse no forúm.

Obrigado

[Ulisses Pereira]

Rui, isso é verdade e considero ser um dos pontos chaves para o bom comportamento dos mercados norte-americanos neste ano. Contudo, a questão é: Se o dólar inverter a tendência de desvalorização, esse factor também pode pesar de uma forma inversa.

Um abraço,
Ulisses

[Rui12ld]

Ele não menciona o facto de o euro se ter apreciado significativamente face ao dólar.

O que deixa as empresas nos states apeteciveis.

E ainda há muitos curtos no mercado, ou seja, ainda há muita lenha para queimar.

Abraço

[Ulisses Pereira]

Cramer lança as suas previsões para o Dow em 2007. Por curiosidade, refira-se que as previsões há um ano atrás quanto ao valor do Dow no final deste ano parecem vir a bater quase milimetricamente. Amanhã publicará o final deste artigo.

"Get Even More Bullish on the Dow"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
12/26/2006 1:50 PM EST

"The sin of not being bullish enough is not one that I have been guilty of very often, but 2006 found me on that side of the fence when I did my annual predictions for the Dow Jones Industrial Average components. I was just about bullish enough on the average itself, though: The Dow closed at 12,471.32 on Dec. 19, just ahead of my 12,470 total.

Seems comical now, but at the time, I was shocked at how bullish that forecast seemed. Now I'm only slightly -- and pleasantly -- more surprised at just how positive I am on the Big 30's prospects for the next year now that I've sat down and quantified it.

You see, I expect the Dow to grow about 17% in 2007, to 14,548. Read on to find out why.

3M
Flat in '07

3M (MMM - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): This one's not lent to easy analysis. The company dropped a bomb in the second quarter and then made a nice recovery in the third, but who knows what could happen with this odd agglomeration of companies. I don't trust management to deliver, but the company itself perks along nicely. I bet it will finish unchanged next year. There's just not enough to work with here and a CEO who is too unseasoned to take the company where it has to go.

Alcoa
Won't be public

Alcoa (AA - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): This one's easy. It won't be public by the end of 2007. This management team has had its chance. Alcoa has to be the only major mineral company that's done absolutely nothing during this amazing commodity boom. Someone else will get a chance to make something of Alcoa in 2007. I see the company going out north of $40.


Altria
Breakup bound

Altria (MO - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): Nobody seemed to notice, but the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, one of the most important federal courts in the land, pretty much destroyed the right of plaintiffs' lawyers to put these disparate class actions together, like the one that is haunting Altria in Brooklyn, N.Y., involving light cigarettes. When that case is overturned, Altria will move to break into three parts: Altria Domestic, Altria International and Kraft (KFT - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating). All three will benefit from not being with each other, particularly Kraft. I see these three parts getting you to $110 rather quickly.

American Express
Headed to $72

American Express (AXP - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): This company seems to put on a quiet 20% every year, at least, since Ken Chenault took it over. He's a quiet exec, doing his job, not seeking the limelight -- and what a remarkable job he's done. Next year will be still one more great year, because the credit-card cachet never abates and the company will find new ways to slice its brimming customer base. My price target on this one: $72.

AIG
Now Mr. Clean

AIG (AIG - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): I own American International Group for Action Alerts PLUS because people don't understand that the company is now Mr. Clean, certified by the new governor of New York before he left his state attorney general post for the governor's mansion. So what is this 12% grower with a terrific business in China doing still selling at 12 times earnings? Some of the cause is the perception that the regulation has hampered its business. Wrong! The other drawback: the perceived selling overhang of defrocked Maurice Hank Greenberg. I don't care about that, either. Three multiple points tacked on to the current price-to-earnings ratio plus an upside surprise owing to no major tsunami or hurricane payoffs should lift the stock to $95.

AT&T
Knows how to do a deal

AT&T (T - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): So AT&T finally gets to merge with BellSouth (BLS - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) and the result is a firing binge that explodes earnings without denting customer service. Unlike Sprint (S - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), AT&T knows how to do a deal. I see the combined company adding 6 points to T's price as the synergies flow through and the dividends increase.

Boeing
Monopoly player?

Boeing (BA - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): In 2007, I believe Airbus will admit the sad truth that it can't make the big planes it promised so many. That would allow Boeing to become something it has always wanted to be: a monopolist. And what a great time to be a monopolist! Labor costs are down, raw material costs have stabilized and prices can be raised. Some think this stock has peaked; they ain't seen nothing yet. I like the prospects for a 30% increase and a price of $120, made up in big increments at the reporting of each quarterly upside surprise.

Caterpillar
Second-half surge
Caterpillar (CAT - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): They killed CAT this year because of housing. I believe the first half of 2007 will look much like the last half of 2006, but this time with the engines business stalling out, too. That's because a change in environmental laws led to pullthrough of orders into 2006 in that important market. That, plus the leveling of oil at a price that doesn't spur enough alternatives, will weigh on Caterpillar. But the second half will be more bountiful because housing will have bottomed and the engine orders will flow back. Look for nothing until July and then a quick spurt to new highs, perhaps even $90, as the raw cost of steel, now that tariffs are removed, flows through to the bottom line.

Citi
Needs a new leader

Citigroup (C - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): The rumblings of Citigroup will be heard, and Chuck Prince will be gone by year-end 2007. The market thirsts for a big-thinking banker at the helm of this ship to augment the new operations chief, and the market will get it. I believe Citigroup will trade to $63 on improved management and the concomitant prospects.

Coca-Cola
Fizzing up to $55

Coca-Cola (KO - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): The new management at Coca-Cola actually has something going for it -- not something that can take the company up too much, but certainly something that can take it to the mid-$50s on solid single-digit growth and a buyback that never quits. That dividend could be increased mightily, too. How about $55 at this time next year?

DuPont
Sticky situation

DuPont (DD - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): This one's a quandary. The stock quietly moved up almost 20% when oil moved down, and its earnings flowed up because of price increases that stuck. That raw-cost win might not be repeated throughout 2007, but it will still help during the first half of the year. The stock also just got too cheap, with that juicy 4% yield that now gives you 3% because of price appreciation. I see only a 10% gain for DuPont in 2007, and that might even be repealed by year-end. How about $53?

ExxonMobil
Fund darlingExxonMobil (XOM - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) has become the mutual funds' favorite play, even though so many other oils are so much cheaper, including Chevron (CVX - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) and ConocoPhillips (COP - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating). Still the multiple's only 12, with 9% earnings growth baked in at these oil prices, so let's say the stock adds on another 5 points. I know, disappointing, but what a run! Eighty's about all it can muster in 2007, though, without oil going through $70, and I don't see that happening.

GE
Watch the dividend

General Electric (GE - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): This one finally got legs when it decided to boost the dividend much more than it has for the past five years, 12% vs. 9%. I believe this is just the beginning of the big boosts, and that the company can take its yield to 4% without much problem, particularly when it unloads plastics, gets the benefit of all the Zucker-led changes at NBC and quits the inanely large buyback that did nothing for shareholders. Still, the stock's not cheap: I'd take GE to $43 and then declare victory.

GM
Going nowhere

General Motors (GM - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): GM had its chance. It had the single greatest turnaround manager in the world on its board, Jerry York, and it spurned him and Tracinda. That said it all. This stock was headed to $40 with the man who turned around Chrysler and IBM on board. Now it is going nowhere, nowhere at all. I believe this stock will close at this level, give or take a handful of points, next year at this time. "

(in www.realmoney.com)