CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

Japanese Stocks Fall; Mitsubishi UFJ, Lenders Lead Declines

By Makiko Suzuki

Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese stocks declined by the most in four months. Lenders including Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. led losses on concern their earnings may fail to meet investor expectations.

``Bank profits from their core lending businesses aren't growing much this year,'' said Hiroshi Chano, who helps oversee $7.3 billion at Yasuda Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. ``Investors are afraid of any negative news and are selling their holdings ahead of the earnings reports.''

Honda Motor Co. and Advantest Corp. led exporters lower after a drop in construction of U.S. homes raised concern over the U.S. economic outlook.

Both indexes dropped by the most since July 18.

The Topix index dropped 39.60, or 2.5 percent, to 1533.94 at the 3 p.m. close in Tokyo, the lowest level since July 26. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average lost 365.79, or 2.3 percent, to 15,725.94, the lowest since Sept. 26. Both indexes dropped by the most since July 18.

Inpex Holdings Inc. fell after crude oil prices dropped to the lowest in 17 months. Sanyo Electric Co. slid after a report said it may post a loss this business year.

Nikkei futures expiring in December dropped 1.8 percent to 15,790 in Osaka and 1.7 percent to 15,795 in Singapore.

To contact the reporter for this story: Makiko Suzuki in Tokyo at msuzuki13@bloomberg.net .
Last Updated: November 20, 2006 01:10 EST

Equities – Is This It for the Nikkei Rally?

Still no signs of the bull channel breaking down but we believe it’s coming soon. Apart from the usual perma bears in the blogging community, bears in general are hard to find. For the most part of the rally, we’ve tagged along but do not share the market’s enthusiasm for equity returns 12-18 months from now. The US remains our biggest concern where wage inflation and slowing growth is clearly visible, something that will eventually hurt profit margins and severely lower analysts’ earnings projections. Then there’s the yield curve: inverted and printing lower levels week after week now. There’s still some room left to the downside before we reach 2000 levels but anyone deploying capital in stock markets simply must take into account what the bond market is saying about the economic outlook. In short, when this bull channel breaks down, get out of the way (or go short).

Whereas S&P 500, FTSE 100 and DAX are waving nicely higher, Nikkei 225 has begun a serious decline that threatens the trend line from June:

Key support stands at 15893, a close below should attract additional selling interest. Examining the sectors in Japan at least one thing is interesting: banks. GDP is rising, consensus on Japans economy and the prospect of reflation is accommodative for equities but why then is TOPIX’ banking index dropping like a stone? Consider the chart of banking giant Mizuho Financial (8411:xtks) and you’ll see what we mean. We’ll be monitoring Nikkei 225’s price action very close from here.

scpnuno Escreveu:

JAOR Escreveu: mas afinal o que é " esticado " ??

cmpts

Caro colega

A administração deste forum, sob pressão de muitos, bem formados e melhor documentados participantes, tem tentado manter este forum num nivél acima da média. Nada de brincadeiras, nada de indecencias e muito menos fazer piadas com indices...

Se o carissimo colega não tem resposta á sua pergunta, bem...eu tenho, mas não posso dar aqui.

De qualquer forma, depois deste post vou ter que ficar reduzida á minha humilde insignificancia até pelo menos ao Natal...

Bons Negocios

J.H. Escreveu:Olá, Jaor, bom te ver de novo por aqui. Ja tinha saudades da tua análise ao nikkei. Achas sensato dizer que há um canal ascendente desde meados de Julho (topos e mínimos?)

Um abraço
JH

JAOR Escreveu: mas afinal o que é " esticado " ??

cmpts