Election Pits Anger at Bush Against Party Money, Turnout Edge
By Kristin Jensen and Laura Litvan
Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Americans vote today in an election that may produce a change of leadership and direction in Washington.
Concern about President George W. Bush's conduct of the war in Iraq and congressional scandals have put dozens of Republican House districts and eight Senate seats in jeopardy. With their control of both houses threatened, Republicans are counting on their larger campaign war chest and well-practiced ability to turn out voters.
``This election comes down to what is stronger: the Republican machine that has been built over the past two decades, or the outrage that exists about Iraq, corruption and the shrinking middle class,'' said Julian Zelizer, a Boston University history professor who studies Congress and politics.
As of Oct. 18, the close of the last pre-election reporting period, the three main Republican campaign committees had a cash edge over their Democratic counterparts of more than $17 million, according to Federal Election Commission records.
Republicans are also deploying their ``72-hour plan'' for turning out supporters, which party leaders have credited as a central element in their victories in 2002 and 2004. White House political adviser Karl Rove and other party strategists have said the expertise they developed in those campaigns may prove decisive again this time.
Democratic Control
Democrats need net gains of 15 seats in the 435-member House, and six seats in the 100-member Senate, to win majorities. They last controlled the House in 1994, and the Senate in 2002.
Democratic control of either chamber would open the door to investigations of Bush's administration by new committee chairmen with subpoena power and the ability to influence policy on everything from taxes to Iraq. Republican losses would also force the party ``to engage in some serious rethinking about its leadership, its ideas and its game plan for 2008,'' Zelizer said.
Final polls on the campaign produced divergent results, with some showing the Democratic advantage narrowing. A Nov. 1-4 Washington Post-ABC News poll found that 51 percent of likely voters favored Democrats in their districts, compared with 45 percent for Republicans. That was down from a 14-point margin two weeks ago. A Nov. 2-3 Newsweek poll found that Democrats still enjoyed a 16-point advantage over Republicans, compared with 18 points in a survey taken Oct. 26-27.
Takeover
The nonpartisan Rothenberg and Cook political newsletters both predicted a Democratic takeover of the House. Rothenberg forecast a gain of 30 to 36 House seats for the Democrats; the Cook report's Charlie Cook said he will be ``flabbergasted'' if the party doesn't pick up at least 20 seats.
The Senate outlook is murkier. Of the 10 most competitive of this year's 33 races, Democrats have the edge in trying to wrest away seats in Ohio and Pennsylvania, and a small advantage in retaining control of Maryland and New Jersey. Republicans are favored to hold Arizona and turn back a strong Democratic bid to claim an open Tennessee seat.
If those predictions hold true, Democrats would have to sweep the four most competitive races -- Republican-held seats in Missouri, Montana, Rhode Island and Virginia -- to gain control of the Senate.
`Moral Victory'
``It will be a moral victory if Republicans hold the Senate, and that's a big question mark,'' said Nathan Gonzales, the political editor for the Rothenberg report in Washington.
Unless there are a number of extremely close races, control of the House may be clear fairly early in the evening. Of the 35 most competitive districts, 22 -- 20 of them currently held by Republicans -- are in states where polls close by 8 p.m. Eastern Standard Time.
If the Democrats win most of those seats, the odds are good for a Democratic-controlled House in January. If Republicans win half or more, they may keep their majority in Congress. There's also the possibility that close races, or problems associated with new voting machines being used in many jurisdictions for the first time, may slow the counting or draw court challenges, potentially extending the uncertainty over control of Congress for days or weeks.
Indiana's Outcome
Bush-friendly states such as Indiana, where polls begin to close as early as 6 p.m. EST, will help tell the tale. Indiana gave Bush 60 percent of its votes two years ago and Republicans now hold seven of the state's nine House seats; this time, Republican Representatives Chris Chocola, John Hostettler and Mike Sodrel are all locked in toss-up contests there.
An early sign of how Democrats will fare in the Senate may come from Virginia, where polls close at 7 p.m. EST. Republican Senator George Allen is in a tight race against Democratic challenger Jim Webb, who served as Navy secretary under former President Ronald Reagan.
Historically, Senate and House elections are defined by the benefits of incumbency, with all but a handful of lawmakers on the ballot returning. Every dozen years or so, though, a wave of voter dissatisfaction breaks the pattern.
The question for Republicans, analysts say, is whether this year's wave will be as great as in 1974, when they suffered big losses in the wake of the Watergate scandal, or 1994, when they took control of the House for the first time in four decades.
Disgusted
``Is the public, or at least the swing voters, disgusted with Bush, Republican control, Iraq, the war on terrorism and the perceived general direction of the country?'' said David Schultz, a professor at Hamline University in St. Paul, Minnesota. ``If yes, look for big changes. If not, change will be muted.''
In 1994, Republicans picked up a net 52 House seats, and not a single incumbent lost. They also picked up 11 Senate seats, gaining a majority; all their incumbents won, and two Democratic incumbents were defeated.
Heading into 2006, analysts expected Democrats to knock off a few Republicans in both chambers, mainly because the party in control of the White House in the sixth year of a presidency historically incurs losses. The Cook report in January rated only 18 Republican House districts as competitive, and 10 held by Democrats. In the Senate, it rated six Republican and seven Democratic seats as competitive.
Shifting in the Spring
Things began to shift in the spring, and Democrats gained momentum in recent weeks amid a scandal over lewd messages that Florida Republican Representative Mark Foley sent to former congressional teenage pages. Foley resigned on Sept. 29, and the campaign in his district is now considered a tossup.
The list of the most competitive races, compiled by Bloomberg from independent experts, political-party spending and Democratic and Republican analysis, is now up to 35 seats, 33 held by Republicans. Another 30 seats are at least in play, and 27 of those are held by Republicans.
Among the most competitive seats is one being defended by Kentucky Representative Anne Northup. Representative Tom Reynolds, the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, told reporters this fall that the race he planned to watch most closely tonight was Northup's, because she has managed to prevail in five tough campaigns.
If she does well, Republican losses may not be as deep as some fear, said Reynolds. ``If she doesn't, I suppose that could mean a long night for me,'' he said.
Now, Reynolds will probably be paying attention to his own returns first: His district in upstate New York moved onto most- competitive lists last month.
The following is a list of competitive House races compiled by Bloomberg, based on party spending, Democratic and Republican analysis and input from independent experts. The party affiliation is listed next to the incumbent's name: R for Republican and D for Democrat. In cases of open seats, the candidate for the party that held the seat most recently is listed.
MOST COMPETITIVE:
District Incumbent Opponent
Arizona-5 J.D. Hayworth (R) Harry Mitchell
Arizona-8 OPEN Randy Graf (R) Gabrielle Giffords
California-11 Richard Pombo (R) Jerry McNerney
Colorado-7 OPEN (Rick O'Donnell (R) Ed Perlmutter
Connecticut-2 Rob Simmons (R) Joe Courtney
Connecticut-4 Chris Shays (R) Diane Farrell
Connecticut-5 Nancy Johnson (R) Chris Murphy
Florida-13 OPEN Vern Buchanan (R) Christine Jennings
Florida-16 OPEN Joe Negron (R) Tim Mahoney
Florida-22 Clay Shaw (R) Ron Klein
Georgia-8 Jim Marshall (D) Mac Collins
Georgia-12 John Barrow (D) Max Burns
Illinois-6 OPEN Peter Roskam (R) Tammy Duckworth
Indiana-2 Chris Chocola (R) Joe Donnelly
Indiana-8 John Hostettler (R) Brad Ellsworth
Indiana-9 Mike Sodrel (R) Baron Hill
Iowa-1 OPEN Mike Whalen (R) Bruce Braley
Kentucky-3 Anne Northup (R) John Yarmuth
Minnesota-1 Gil Gutknecht (R) Tim Walz
Minnesota-6 OPEN Michele Bachmann (R) Patty Wetterling
New Hampshire-2 Charles Bass (R) Paul Hodes
New Mexico-1 Heather Wilson (R) Patricia Madrid
New York-20 John Sweeney (R) Kirsten Gillibrand
New York-24 OPEN Ray Meier (R) Michael Arcuri
New York-26 Tom Reynolds (R) Jack Davis
N. Carolina-11 Charles Taylor (R) Heath Shuler
Ohio-1 Steve Chabot (R) John Cranley
Ohio-15 Deborah Pryce (R) Mary Jo Kilroy
Ohio-18 OPEN Joy Padgett (R) Zack Space
Pennsylvania-6 Jim Gerlach (R) Lois Murphy
Pennsylvania-7 Curt Weldon (R) Joseph Sestak
Pennsylvania-8 Mike Fitzpatrick (R) Patrick Murphy
Pennsylvania-10 Donald Sherwood (R) Christopher Carney
Texas-22 OPEN Shelley Sekula-Gibbs(R) Nick Lampson
Wisconsin-8 OPEN John Gard (R) Steven Kagen
COMPETITIVE:
District Incumbent Opponent
Arizona-1 Rick Renzi (R) Ellen Simon
California-4 John Doolittle (R) Charles Brown
California-50 Brian Bilbray (R) Francine Busby
Colorado-4 Marilyn Musgrave (R) Angie Paccione
Colorado-5 OPEN Doug Lamborn (R) Jay Fawcett
Idaho-1 OPEN Bill Sali (R) Larry Grant
Illinois-8 Melissa Bean (D) Dave McSweeney
Illinois-10 Mark Steven Kirk (R) Daniel Seals
Iowa-3 Leonard Boswell (D) Jeff Lamberti
Kansas-2 Jim Ryun (R) Nancy Boyda
Kentucky-4 Geoff Davis (R) Ken Lucas
Michigan-7 OPEN Tim Walberg (R) Sharon Marie
Renier
Nebraska-3 OPEN Adrian Smith (R) Scott Kleeb
Nevada-2 OPEN Dean Heller (R) Jill Derby
Nevada-3 Jon Porter (R) Tessa Hafen
New Hampshire-1 Jeb Bradley (R) Carol Shea-Porter
New Jersey-7 Mike Ferguson (R) Linda Stender
New York-3 Peter King (R) Dave Mejias
New York-19 Sue Kelly (R) John Hall
New York-25 James Walsh (R) Dan Maffei
New York-29 Randy Kuhl (R) Eric Massa
Ohio-2 Jean Schmidt (R) Victoria Wulsin
Ohio-12 Pat Tiberi (R) Robert Shamansky
Pennsylvania-4 Melissa Hart (R) Jason Altmire
Texas-23 Henry Bonilla (R) Ciro Rodriguez
Vermont** OPEN Peter Welch (D) Martha Rainville
Virginia-2 Thelma Drake (R) Phil Kellam
Virginia-10 Frank Wolf (R) Judy Feder
Washington-8 Dave Reichert (R) Darcy Burner
Wyoming Barbara Cubin (R) Gary Trauner
**Vermont's statewide district is currently represented by
Independent Bernie Sanders, who caucuses with the Democrats.
The following is a list of competitive Senate seats:
MOST COMPETITIVE:
State Incumbent Opponent
Missouri James Talent (R) Claire McCaskill
Montana Conrad Burns (R) Jon Tester
Rhode Island Lincoln Chafee (R) Sheldon Whitehouse
Virginia George Allen (R) James Webb
COMPETITIVE:
State Incumbent Opponent
Arizona Jon Kyl (R) Jim Pederson
Maryland OPEN Ben Cardin (D) Michael Steele
New Jersey Bob Menendez (D) Tom Kean Jr.
Ohio Mike DeWine (R) Sherrod Brown
Pennsylvania Rick Santorum (R) Bob Casey Jr.
Tennessee OPEN Bob Corker (R) Harold Ford Jr.
To contact the reporters on this story: Kristin Jensen in Washington
kjensen@bloomberg.net Laura Litvan in Washington
llitvan@bloomberg.netLast Updated: November 7, 2006 00:03 EST
Enviado: 8/11/2006 15:20