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U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Index Rose 0.1% in September

By Shobhana Chandra

Oct. 19 (Bloomberg) -- An index of U.S. leading economic indicators rose less than expected in September, suggesting the economy has little momentum heading into the fourth quarter.

The Conference Board's index rose 0.1 percent after decreasing 0.2 percent in August, the New York-based group said today. The index points to the direction of the economy over the next three to six months.

The report raises concern the housing slump is hurting the rest of the economy and may threaten growth, strengthening the case for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates steady in coming months, economists said. Building permits fell last month to the lowest level in almost five years.

``The trend in the leading indicators still points to softening growth in the months and quarters ahead,'' Steven Wood, president of Insight Economics LLC in Danville, California, said before the report.

A separate report today was more positive. First-time applications for jobless benefits, one of the components of the leading indicators, unexpectedly fell last week to the lowest level in almost three months, suggesting a healthy job market, a report today from the Labor Department showed. The number of claims dropped to 299,000 from 309,000 a week earlier.

The leading index was forecast to rise 0.3 percent, according to the median of 48 economists' projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from a drop of 0.3 percent to an increase of 0.5 percent.

Five of 10 indicators contributed to the gain, today's report showed.

Consumer Expectations

Improving consumer outlook on the economy as measured by the University of Michigan made the biggest contribution. Their consumer expectations index jumped to 78.2 in September from 68 a month earlier. The outlook brightened even more this month as the index rose to 83.4, according to a preliminary report last week.

Stock prices also contributed. The Standard & Poor's 500 index averaged 1317.8 last month, up from 1287.2 the prior month. The stock index is up again so far this month.

``Relatively favorable reports, combined with favorable news on inflation and at least a stable economy, could keep investors in a more upbeat mood,'' Lynn Reaser, chief economist at the Investment Strategy Group of Bank of America in Boston, said before the report.

The other components contributing to the gain were an increase in the money supply, lower jobless claims and more factory orders for capital equipment.

Improving confidence, rising incomes and higher stock prices are keeping consumers spending. Retail sales excluding gasoline station receipts rose 0.6 percent last month as a decline in fuel prices gave consumers extra money to spend on clothing, furniture and building materials, a report last week from the Commerce Department showed. The gain was three times larger than the August increase.

Concern About Housing

Housing is the biggest area of concern. Building permits, another component of the leading index because they signal future construction, fell 6.3 percent in September to an annual pace of 1.619 million, Commerce Department data showed yesterday. The number of permits was the lowest in almost five years.

In addition to permits, a decrease in the factory workweek, faster deliveries by suppliers, a negative differential between shorter- and longer-term interest rates, and fewer orders for consumer goods subtracted from the index.

Seven of the 10 indicators that make up the index are known ahead of time: stock prices, jobless claims, building permits, consumer expectations, the yield curve, supplier delivery times and factory hours.

The Conference Board estimates new orders for consumer goods, orders for non-defense capital goods and money supply adjusted for inflation.

Falling Fuel Costs

The decline in energy costs is also helping keep inflation in check while allowing the economy to continue expanding. Fed policy makers last month kept their benchmark interest rate target at 5.25 percent for a second month after 17 consecutive quarter-point increases since June 2004. They are forecast to hold rates steady again when they meet next week.

``We believe that if gas prices hold down and interest rates stabilize that consumer confidence should be up,,'' said Bruce Hertzke, chief executive officer at Winnebago Industries Inc. in an Oct 12 interview. That should help sales during the typically- strong second quarter of next year, he said.

Winnebago, the largest U.S. motor-home maker, last week said profit in the quarter ended Aug. 26 rose less than analysts expected because buyers chose less expensive models as gasoline prices and interest rates rose.

The Conference Board's index of coincident indicators, a gauge of current economic activity, was unchanged in September after rising 0.2 percent the prior month.

The gauge of lagging indicators rose 0.2 percent for a second month.

Gross domestic product, the sum of all goods and services produced, probably expanded at a 2.5 percent annual rate in the July to September quarter, and will grow at a similar pace in the final three months, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey from Oct. 2 to Oct. 10. Growth is then expected to improve in the first half of 2007.

To contact the reporter on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington schandra1@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: October 19, 2006 10:00 EDT

[Infoo]

10:00 AM ET 10/19/06 U.S. SEPT. LAGGING INDEX RISES 0.2%
10:00 AM ET 10/19/06 U.S. SEPT. COINCIDENT INDICATORS UNCHANGED
10:00 AM ET 10/19/06 U.S. SEPT. LEADING INDICATORS DOWN 0.9% IN PAST 6 MONTHS
10:00 AM ET 10/19/06 LEADING INDICATORS SUGGEST SLOW GROWTH: CONFERENCE BOARD
10:00 AM ET 10/19/06 U.S. SEPT. LEADING INDICATORS RISE 0.1% VS. 0.3% EXPECTED

ECONOMIC REPORT: Leading index rises 0.1%, suggesting slow growth
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 10:00 AM ET Oct 19, 2006

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - A gauge of future growth shows the U.S. economy should continue to expand at a slow pace, the Conference Board said Thursday.
The index of leading economic indicators rose 0.1% in September after falling in July and August. The index has dropped in five of the past eight months, and is down 0.9% in the past six months.
Economists expected the leading index to rise 0.3%, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch.
The leading index fell 0.2% in August and 0.3% in July.
"The behavior of the leading index so far suggests that economic growth should continue at the slow rate in the near term," the New York-based private research group said.
Five of the 10 leading indicators rose in September: Consumer expectations, money supply, stock prices, jobless claims and core capital equipment orders.
Five others fell: Building permits, factory working hours, delivery times, the interest-rate spread and new orders for consumer goods.
In the past six months, 45% of the indicators have been positive.
The coincident index was unchanged in September, with falling industrial production offsetting gains in income, sales and employment.
The lagging index rose 0.2% in September.