O petróleo está em queda, mas a incerteza continua em alta

[Ulisses Pereira]

Nesta acção? Não sei... Tendência de longo prazo descendente e de curto prazo ascendente. Prefiro não lhe tocar.

Um abraço,
Ulisses

[vitor79]

E qual é a ta opinião ulisses, os ursos vão pegar nisto outra vez ou nem por isso?

[Ulisses Pereira]

"NYSE Euronext Holders, Ready for the Next Raid"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
10/2/2007 10:51 AM EDT

"The ridiculous valuation of NYSE Euronext (NYX - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) continues. The stock can't move to save its life even as there are acquisitions left and right in the space. And it is time to wonder what the company is doing to make sure that it remains relevant in a world where derivatives, not common stocks, rule.

The issue here is how to value a company that is a market leader in a business that everyone has written off: equities. The absurdity of all of this, the idea that somehow this company should be valued at less than I believe Euronext might have been worth given the weak dollar and the robust trading of equities and derivatives in Europe and how coveted Euronext was before this acquisition makes me feel that the stock is simply being "forced down" by people who are long CME (CME - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) and short NYSE Euronext, thinking that CME is the future and NYSE Euronext is the past.

The issue is valuation, of course. NYSE Euronext is supposed to make $3.34 next year. I can only believe that the shorts -- and they are numerous -- believe that number is too high and that the multiple for this stock should be no higher than the S&P 500's for next year. That would put this stock at $61. It would make the entity be worth $21 billion.

When I see that valuation, I wonder why the CME just doesn't buy NYSE Euronext for the European exposure and close New York. Or sell the real estate for a couple hundred million, make the whole thing electronic and fire all the specialists. If the CME did that, I think that the combined company would be the dominant securities trader of every kind of instrument.

Of course, to me, this is all absurd. NYX should be higher.


But as I watch the stock do nothing even as the stock market goes to an all-time high, I can only believe that the sellers are either people who are fed up with the poor performance of the stock or short-sellers bent on the stock trading at no more than a market multiple despite the business growing at +25% -- a higher growth rate than the CME.

I understand the frustration. I hate the stock.

But it is growing increasingly hard to value this stock as pathetically and negatively as it is when even the lowly Boston exchange gets a bid and Dubai wants in to every exchange.

When I was at my hedge fund, I often shorted stocks like this one (I can't short stocks now), betting that the bears just wanted to break the holders and that they would have their way.

I figure it is just a matter of time before the bears raid it again.

If you are a shareholder, be ready for the next assault. The bears can't let this stock pass $80. Because then it would be able to do a deal for the New York Merc (NMX - commentary - Cramer's Take) and it would force the shorts to cover, if only because NYX would then have the U.S. futures component that everyone seems to demand.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long NYSE Euronext. "

(in www.realmoney.com)