Jeff Cooper: "Bulls Back Against the Ropes"
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Não pretendo aconselhar ninguém, cada um corre por sua conta e risco !
"Sept. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, said forces behind current market turmoil are ``identical'' to previous economic upheavals, including the 1987 stock market crash, the Wall Street Journal reported.
Greenspan, who left office in 2005 and is now a consultant, told an economists' gathering in Washington that ``what we are observing in the last seven weeks is identical in many respects to what we saw in 1998,'' when hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management almost collapsed, in 1987, and in economic collapses in 1837 and 1907, the Journal said.
The former Fed chairman said incremental adjustment in interest rates can't damp euphoria that creates bubbles during economic expansions, the Journal reported."
Atentem só no attach... Disse-me um nuestro hermano: "amarrate a la silla que te queda poco" !!
Abraço e boa sorte a todos
!!
"Sept. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, said forces behind current market turmoil are ``identical'' to previous economic upheavals, including the 1987 stock market crash, the Wall Street Journal reported.
Greenspan, who left office in 2005 and is now a consultant, told an economists' gathering in Washington that ``what we are observing in the last seven weeks is identical in many respects to what we saw in 1998,'' when hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management almost collapsed, in 1987, and in economic collapses in 1837 and 1907, the Journal said.
The former Fed chairman said incremental adjustment in interest rates can't damp euphoria that creates bubbles during economic expansions, the Journal reported."
Atentem só no attach... Disse-me um nuestro hermano: "amarrate a la silla que te queda poco" !!
Abraço e boa sorte a todos
!!- Anexos
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Dow Jones 1987 vs 2007.pdf- Dow Jones 1987 vs 2007
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James Wheat
Position Trader
Position Trader
- Mensagens: 1800
- Registado: 24/5/2006 12:33
- Localização: Porto
Os Bulls estão definitivamente sem forças e mantêm-se assustados...
Qualquer aviso de nova investida Bear fá-los baixar as armas e desatar a fugir.
No curto prazo continua tudo muito complicado!
Iremos ter novo teste a minímos?
O medo está lá, mas até quando?
Qualquer aviso de nova investida Bear fá-los baixar as armas e desatar a fugir.
No curto prazo continua tudo muito complicado!
Iremos ter novo teste a minímos?
O medo está lá, mas até quando?
- Mensagens: 456
- Registado: 31/5/2006 21:13
Claro que sim. E fizeste bem pois eu gostei de ler o artigo. O meu espicaçar para outra opinião bullish era dirigido a qualquer um e não a ti exclusivamente (talvez não tenha utilizado as palavras mais correctas pois o que se escreve pode ser interpretado de formas variadas). A minha posição neste preciso momento é mesmo neutra (de indefinição) pois processo informação que me leva a argumentos fortes quer para bear quer para continuidade do bull e por isso estimulei a que se colocasse um peso no outro lado da balança neste post e que tivesse pelo menos a mesma qualidade dessa.
cumprimentos
cumprimentos
Human vs Algorithm
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- Mensagens: 539
- Registado: 3/7/2007 22:28
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Pollitto, eu coloco as análises que me parece interessantes e costumo ser bastante selectivo nas que escolho. Não me passa pela cabeça que sempre que coloco uma óptima opinião "bearish" tenha que encontrar uma óptima análise "bullish" para contrabalançar...
Os mercados não são feitos de equilíbrios. Muito menos as opiniões.
Um abraço,
Ulisses
Os mercados não são feitos de equilíbrios. Muito menos as opiniões.
Um abraço,
Ulisses
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- Administrador Fórum
- Mensagens: 31014
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Encaro como mais uma posição bearish devidamente justificada. Nada de novo. Talvez fosse interessante colocar também uma posição bullish para ser frio e imparcial já que o momento é de indefinição e pode vir a pender para qualquer um dos lados.
cumprimentos
cumprimentos
Human vs Algorithm
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- Mensagens: 539
- Registado: 3/7/2007 22:28
- Localização: ★Al-Gharb★
O texto é mais do mesmo - sem deixar de ser excelente, atenção !
Hoje correu-me muito bem e amanhã tiro-lhe o resto das medidas... Há que conhecer o timing de cada um no mercado e para mim acabou-se esta tanga de andar 'no fio da navalha'.
Ab+Bn - até amanhã !
Hoje correu-me muito bem e amanhã tiro-lhe o resto das medidas... Há que conhecer o timing de cada um no mercado e para mim acabou-se esta tanga de andar 'no fio da navalha'.
Ab+Bn - até amanhã !
James Wheat
Position Trader
Position Trader
- Mensagens: 1800
- Registado: 24/5/2006 12:33
- Localização: Porto
Também condordo no essencial, não foram ainda dados sinais claros de inversão de tendência e parece-me perigoso entrar já...
Sugestões de trading, análises técnicas, estratégias e ideias http://sobe-e-desce.blogspot.com/
http://www.gamesandfun.pt/afiliado&id=28
http://www.gamesandfun.pt/afiliado&id=28
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- Mensagens: 17491
- Registado: 17/3/2003 22:51
- Localização: Almada
Está tudo muito indefinido...
A análise parece-me excelente e realmente o "chega para lá" dos Bulls ainda não aconteceu.
Continuam a lamber as feridas à espera que elas sarem. Por enquanto ainda estão à espera que não haja nova investida, porque a força para já não me parece muita, nem para aguentar ou possivelmente reagir.
A análise parece-me excelente e realmente o "chega para lá" dos Bulls ainda não aconteceu.
Continuam a lamber as feridas à espera que elas sarem. Por enquanto ainda estão à espera que não haja nova investida, porque a força para já não me parece muita, nem para aguentar ou possivelmente reagir.
- Mensagens: 456
- Registado: 31/5/2006 21:13
Jeff Cooper: "Bulls Back Against the Ropes"
"Bulls Back Against the Ropes"
Jeffrey Cooper Sep 06, 2007 9:26 am
"The market turns on a dime most traders can not. "
"The shadow knows - the Street always knows - the late weakness on Tuesday was a tell to stocks getting hit on Wednesday.
Bearishly, the 'breakout' on Tuesday was completely offset by Wednesday's price action.
It is not a breakout in and of itself that is telling but the ensuing behavior on the breakout.
As I like to say, breakouts can be the most dangerous point as fast moves come from failed moves.
The market turns on a dime most traders can not.
This market turns on a penny, and turns like an 18 wheeler on steroids.
Has the S&P completed an A-B-C rally phase and poised for a new wave of selling and a new leg down to new lows?
A break of a Necktie of the 200/20 day moving averages would seem to confirm that notion, even if this level holds for a day or so.
But, caveat emptor as the last two weeks may have been the eye of the hurricane and the calm before the storm: the current period aligns cyclically with what Gann called a panic zone which is 49 (7 squared) to 55 (Fibonacci) days from a peak.
Sept 11 is a solar eclipse which is the most powerful of astronomic/cyclical influences and it will be interesting to see if its power is exerted on the 6th anniversary of 9/11.
This is the time frame in which many crashes in history have played out including 1929 an 1987.
No matter how cheap socks look if they get hit here the important thing to remember is that the nature of the beast is stocks always get oversold and overbought and go to extremes unimaginable. Panics simply magnify and speed up these conditions. There are no immediate perceptions of value in the middle of a 'panic bubble' until it too is burst.
Even if 1460 holds for a day or so this is potentially an extremely vulnerable position for the market over the next few weeks at least.
The bulls are back on the ropes and we must observe the behavior.
It remains to be seen if yesterday's weakness was front-running ahead of earnings season or September month end liquidation.
Yesterday was the 14th trading day from low an reversals ofter occur on fractals of 7.
A reversal did play out from where it should have in term of time and price (1484-1490 S&P) and must be respected until proven otherwise.
I maintain a bearish bias. Resistance should be up to 1479/1480 cash with a trading stop at 1484/1486.
A break of 1432 could start a waterfall decline. "
(in www.minyanville.com)
Jeffrey Cooper Sep 06, 2007 9:26 am
"The market turns on a dime most traders can not. "
"The shadow knows - the Street always knows - the late weakness on Tuesday was a tell to stocks getting hit on Wednesday.
Bearishly, the 'breakout' on Tuesday was completely offset by Wednesday's price action.
It is not a breakout in and of itself that is telling but the ensuing behavior on the breakout.
As I like to say, breakouts can be the most dangerous point as fast moves come from failed moves.
The market turns on a dime most traders can not.
This market turns on a penny, and turns like an 18 wheeler on steroids.
Has the S&P completed an A-B-C rally phase and poised for a new wave of selling and a new leg down to new lows?
A break of a Necktie of the 200/20 day moving averages would seem to confirm that notion, even if this level holds for a day or so.
But, caveat emptor as the last two weeks may have been the eye of the hurricane and the calm before the storm: the current period aligns cyclically with what Gann called a panic zone which is 49 (7 squared) to 55 (Fibonacci) days from a peak.
Sept 11 is a solar eclipse which is the most powerful of astronomic/cyclical influences and it will be interesting to see if its power is exerted on the 6th anniversary of 9/11.
This is the time frame in which many crashes in history have played out including 1929 an 1987.
No matter how cheap socks look if they get hit here the important thing to remember is that the nature of the beast is stocks always get oversold and overbought and go to extremes unimaginable. Panics simply magnify and speed up these conditions. There are no immediate perceptions of value in the middle of a 'panic bubble' until it too is burst.
Even if 1460 holds for a day or so this is potentially an extremely vulnerable position for the market over the next few weeks at least.
The bulls are back on the ropes and we must observe the behavior.
It remains to be seen if yesterday's weakness was front-running ahead of earnings season or September month end liquidation.
Yesterday was the 14th trading day from low an reversals ofter occur on fractals of 7.
A reversal did play out from where it should have in term of time and price (1484-1490 S&P) and must be respected until proven otherwise.
I maintain a bearish bias. Resistance should be up to 1479/1480 cash with a trading stop at 1484/1486.
A break of 1432 could start a waterfall decline. "
(in www.minyanville.com)
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- Administrador Fórum
- Mensagens: 31014
- Registado: 29/10/2002 4:04
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