O petróleo está em queda, mas a incerteza continua em alta

[Ulisses Pereira]

"The Game Plan as We Rally"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
9/6/2007 12:11 PM EDT

"Right now, you can see what's happening. Many traders think that a recession is in the offing as the retail sales represent a calendar shift. That's why we're seeing the strength in food and bonds and the weakness in financials, which are back to where the S&P 500 was in January 2005. The S&P has moved 30% higher, but those stocks act finished.

The other half of the trading community believes the fundamentals are strong and that all systems are go. These latter people are more inclined to think that Fed rate cuts are just off the table.

(By the way, the gold stocks are signaling a cut, to add to the confusion.)

When we have a team that says the Fed should cut and another team that says no, the latter won't be surprised if nothing happens, which makes it a heck of a lot better than if everyone thinks a cut is coming. In fact, I will go a step further: I now believe that very few participants are making a bet that the rates are coming down, or you would not get the endless buying in the industrials and the endless selling in the financials. There is also endless shorting in the banks, both domestic and regional.

Meanwhile, the ultimate defensive stocks -- and I just don't mean Pepsi (PEP - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) and General Mills (GIS - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) -- are ramping. I mean biotech.

I think that the collapse is strictly 2008, when the mortgage resets really kick in. The new bet is that the 7 million families affected will simply get thrown out, with the delicious bathwater of private equity.

Either way, there are plenty of ways to make money, as the stock market shows today.

But again, I want to be cautious. I am concerned that a weak economic number will move up the Cokes (KO - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) again but kibosh the bull markets for a couple of days that I outlined earlier. I believe you will get a better entry than these prices for all but tech and oil. Just keep that game plan in mind as we rally. 2

(in www.realmoney.com)