EUA e Irão chegam a acordo sobre cessar-fogo após troca intensa de ameaças

[JOSE DUARTE]

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Fed considera
Quebra no mercado imobiliário “deverá continuar a pesar" na economia dos EUA
A Reserva Federal (Fed) norte-americana considera que a recessão do mercado imobiliário dos EUA deverá arrastar-se por mais tempo do que o esperado. Os responsáveis continuam a defender que a inflação é o maior risco para a economia e que o ritmo de crescimento económico mais brando deverá manter-se no resto de 2007.

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Sara Antunes
saraantunes@mediafin.pt

 
Ben Bernanke
 
Presidente da Fed
A Reserva Federal (Fed) norte-americana considera que a recessão do mercado imobiliário dos EUA deverá arrastar-se por mais tempo do que o esperado. Os responsáveis continuam a defender que a inflação é o maior risco para a economia e que o ritmo de crescimento económico mais brando deverá manter-se no resto de 2007.

"A correcção do mercado imobiliário deverá continuar a pesar na actividade económica na maior parte deste ano" consideraram os responsáveis, de acordo com as minutas da última reunião divulgadas hoje e citadas pela Bloomberg. Os governadores afirmaram que este comportamento está a ser, "de alguma forma, mais longo do que o inicialmente previsto".

Os responsáveis pela política monetária norte-americana decidiram por unanimidade, a 9 de Maio, manter a taxa de juro inalterada nos 5,25% e não discutiram a possibilidade de reduzirem o custo do dinheiro, segundo as minutas.

A Fed espera que o produto interno bruto (PIB) norte-americano se expanda "ligeiramente abaixo da tendência da taxa de crescimento da economia no resto deste ano e vai recuperar" para um ritmo já em linha com a tendência em 2008, revelam os governadores.

Os responsáveis consideram que o "crescimento abrandou" e a inflação "permanece" elevada, o que deixa pouco espaço para uma redução ou um aumento de juros na maior economia do mundo.
 

Para já nada de novo, e os mrcados agradecem.

[JAS]

Os índices norte-americanos fecharam a valores, com o Dow Jones a atingir novo máximo histórico. A divulgação das minutas da Reserva Federal (Fed) dos EUA e o mercado petrolífero animou a negociação bolsista.

O Dow Jones [Cot] fechou a subir 0,82% para os 13.632,76 pontos e o Nasdaq [Cot] avançou 0,8% para os 2.592,59 pontos.

Os preços do petróleo nos EUA voltaram a subir, animando a negociação das petrolíferas no mercado norte-americano.

As acções da Exxon Mobil valorizaram 1,54% para os 83,89 dólares.

A Fed divulgou hoje as minutas da última reunião e sugeriu que as taxas de juro vão permanecer nos 5,25%, isto porque a inflação continua a ser um risco para a economia, enquanto que o mercado imobiliário deverá penalizar a economia.

Apesar dos responsáveis pela política monetária norte-americana preverem que a economia dos EUA deverá crescer a um ritmo mais brando até ao final do ano, mantiveram a expectativa de que não haverá uma recessão, o que animou os índices.

As tecnológicas também registaram fortes ganhos. A Cisco subiu 1,89% para os 26,39 dólares e a eBay ganhou 2,5% para os 33,22 dólares. A Google cresceu mais de 2% e a Apple avançou mais de 3,5%

Com o mini-crash chinês até é bonito ter tido um fecho destes...

JAS

[Infoo]

2:00 PM ET, May 30, 2007 - 2 hours ago
Fed staff trims its estimate of structural productivity rate
FOMC sees considerable uncertainty in inflation outlook
FOMC sees housing drag on growth lasting longer than thought
FOMC sees growth pickup, gradual inflation decline this year
FOMC says downside risks to growth have diminished a bit
FOMC members not convinced inflation on downward trend
FOMC less worried about slowdown at May 9 meeting

THE FED
Slowdown concerns ease at latest Fed meeting; Participants not convinced inflation on downward trend
By Greg Robb, MarketWatch Last Update: 3:13 PM ET May 30, 2007

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Open Market Committee breathed almost an audible sigh of relief at its May 9 meeting that the economy appeared to have recovered from brief doldrums in the first quarter, according to a summary of the meeting released Wednesday.
FOMC members judged downside risks to growth "to have diminished slightly," according to the minutes. Read full text of May 9 minutes
http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/minutes/20070509.htm
Fears of a broad inventory correction, which could have led to a sharp decline in business capital spending, were laid to rest.
"FOMC members were...encouraged that, outside of the construction sector, the correction of inventories to more comfortable levels appeared well advanced, thus reducing the possibility that going forward this adjustment process could trigger shortfalls in business spending and output," the minutes said.
As a result, Fed members remained confident in their expectation that economic conditions would improve as the year progressed from the tepid 1.3% GDP growth rate in the first quarter, the slowest pace in four years.
"The pace of economic expansion had slowed in the first part of this year, but the recent sub-par performance probably exaggerated the weakness of underlying demand, and the rate of economic growth was expected to pick up in coming quarters," the summary said.
One dark cloud was the housing market slowdown. The most recent data suggested that housing would remain a drag on economic growth for most of 2007, longer than previously anticipated.
However, the turmoil in the subprime mortgage market had not spread to the rest of the mortgage markets, and borrowers were benefiting from interest rates lower than last summer.
At the same time, "nearly all" FOMC members said that core inflation rates remained "uncomfortably high" and stressed the need for further moderation.
"Although core readings in March had been more favorable, this followed several months of elevated inflation data and price pressures were not yet viewed as convincingly on a downward trend," the summary said.
All FOMC members said that there was a greater risk that inflation would spike rather than fall.
At the same time, Fed officials admitted that they don't fully understand recent inflation dynamics, saying there was "considerable uncertainty" over the prospects for inflation.
At its meeting, the FOMC held interest rates steady at 5.25% and made very few changes to its policy statement, which stressed the risk that inflation would fail to moderate as desired "remained the FOMC's predominant concern."
The FOMC had undertaken a major rewrite of its policy statement in March and in the process confused economists and the markets, many of whom at first saw a hint that the Fed had removed an inflation bias. This belief lasted only a few days until Fed chief Ben Bernanke went up to Capitol Hill and told Congress the bias remained in place.
The summary contained no discussion at the May 9 meeting about removing the inflation bias or the need for an interest rate cut. Indeed, with the FOMC members seeing an improving economy, the need for any reduction in rates would be diminished.
"In short, with its intense focus on inflation risks, the Bernanke Fed continues to behave as an inflation targeting regime, with no interest in boosting growth until it is convinced that the inflation rate will fall to a more acceptable rate," said Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist for Miller Tabak & Co.
But there were also reasons not to raise interest rates.
Although downside risks to growth had diminished, they had not disappeared, the FOMC said.
There was still a risk that a significant decline in home prices could impact consumer spending.