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Cramer: "Gung-Ho Semi Analysts Haven't Learned"

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Cramer: "Gung-Ho Semi Analysts Haven't Learned"

por Ulisses Pereira » 9/4/2007 14:47

Neste artigo, Cramer tece algumas críticas a algumas análises fundamentais de casas de investimento das quais destaco o facto de, muitas vezes, os analistas reverem as suas recomendações pelo simples facto da cotação mexer e não pela alteração dos fundamentais das empresas. Isto faria sentido de estivéssemos a falar de uma análise técnica mas estamos a falar de análises fundamentais. Este é um dos pontos que foco no artigo "O Horóscopo da Bolsa": http://www.caldeiraodebolsa.com/article.php?iId=449

Um abraço,
Ulisses

"Gung-Ho Semi Analysts Haven't Learned"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
4/9/2007 10:07 AM EDT


"The insistence of the major firms on Wall Street that capital spending for semis is increasing just doesn't make sense. Micron (MU - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), AMD (AMD - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), Intel (INTC - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) -- none of these guys is about to spend more money. AMD announced point-blank that it's cutting capital spending.

What makes these analysts so gung-ho about the group?

The same thing that has always driven this group of analysts: They can't resist. These analysts see the stocks moving, so they recommend the names. They are not reacting to the companies' fundamentals.

I am going to keep driving this point home because the end-markets always determine the orders for KLA-Tencor (KLAC - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), Novellus (NVLS - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), Applied Materials (AMAT - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) and Lam Research (LRCX - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating). Always. To dismiss what the customers are doing is the height of foolhardiness.

Let's take some other, less-charged examples:

If the defense budget were being cut severely, would you recommend General Dynamics (GD - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) or Lockheed Martin (LMT - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating)?

If Boeing's (BA - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) orders were dropping, would you get behind Precision Castparts (PCP - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) or B/E Aerospace (BEAV - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating)?

Would you recommend USG (USG - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) and Masco (MAS - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) if housing was in the dumps? (Whoops, it is -- look at that.)

Or how about the auto parts makers -- if they weren't being consolidated because of bankruptcies?

We would laugh at all these analysts if they made such calls.

But not in this group. These semi analysts are taken seriously.

It's a travesty. And you have to treat it as such.

When will these guys learn? When will they stop hurting people? "

(in www.realmoney.com)
"Acreditar é possuir antes de ter..."

Ulisses Pereira

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