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10:00 AM ET 9/27/06 FIRST YEAR-OVER-YEAR DROP IN MEDIAN SALES PRICE SINCE 2003
10:00 AM ET 9/27/06 U.S. AUG. NEW-HOME SALES FALL IN WEST TO 5-YEAR LOW
10:00 AM ET 9/27/06 U.S. JULY NEW-HOME SALES REVISED TO 1.009M, 3-YEAR LOW
10:00 AM ET 9/27/06 U.S. AUG. NEW-HOME INVENTORIES DIP TO 6.6-MONTH SUPPLY
10:00 AM ET 9/27/06 U.S. AUG. NEW-HOME MEDIAN SALES PRICE DOWN 1.3% Y-O-Y
10:00 AM ET 9/27/06 U.S. AUG. NEW-HOME SALES UP 4.1% TO 1.05M V. 1.04M EXPECTED

ECONOMIC REPORT: New home sales rise 4.1% to 1.05 million pace; August median sales price down 1.3% from a year earlier
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 10:00 AM ET Sep 27, 2006

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Sales of new homes increased 4.1% in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.05 million from a three-year low in July, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.

It was the first increase in new-home sales since March.

Sales are down 17.4% in the past year and are down 23% from the peak last July.

Sales in May, June and July were revised sharply lower. July's sales pace was revised to 1.009 million, the lowest since March 2003, from an earlier 1.072 million.

According to the MarketWatch survey, economists were expecting sales to fall about 3.4% in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.036 million. The August result is about 1.4% higher than expected.

The supply of unsold homes dropped 0.4% to 568,000, representing a 6.6-month supply at the August rate from 7.0 months in July.

The median sales price of a new home fell 1.3% year-on-year to $237,000, the first year-on-year decline since 2003. The sales price does not reflect the massive incentives builders have been offering to close deals.

Earlier in the week, the National Association of Realtors reported that the median price of an existing home fell year-over-year for the first time in 11 years.

Despite the sales increase in August, there's little reason for near-term optimism about new home sales, economists said.

"Builders are extremely pessimistic," Brian Bethune and Nigel Gault, economists for Global Insight, said ahead of the report. The home builders' sentiment index has plunged to a 15-year low, while housing starts have fallen 19.8% in the past year to a three-year low.

Regionally, sales rose 21.7% in the Northeast, 12.2% in the Midwest, and 11.1% in the South. Sales dropped 17.7% in the West to the lowest level since November 2001.

The government cautions that its housing data are subject to large sampling and other statistical errors. Large revisions are common.

The standard error is so high, in fact, that the government cannot be sure sales increased at all in August. The 4.1% increase is statistically meaningless.

It can take up to six months for a trend in sales to emerge. New-home sales have averaged 1.082 million per month over the past six months, up slightly from 1.082 million in the six-month period ending in July. The six-month sales average had fallen nine months in a row. The six-month average is down 16% from December.