Da tulipa holandesa ao tomate canadiano, calor da bitcoin é usado na agricultura

[BullPower]

Boas Ulisses, espero que tenhas tido umas excelentes férias.

Há mais um pormenor interessante a mencionar. Dizem os mais sabidos que os futuros do SPX são mais importantes do que o próprio índice. Parece que em Maio houve um gap nos futuros em 1307.5 que não foi preenchido. Até agora, desde os mínimos de Junho, o máximo que os futuros fizeram foi 1307.75 no dia 18 de Agosto e já com o cash fechado. Ontem os futuros fizeram 1307.5 enquanto o índice fez novo máximo por mais dois pontos e meio. Teremos aqui a formação de um duplo ou triplo topo nos futuros?

Abraço e BN.

[Ulisses Pereira]

"Cyclical Storm Approaches Wall Street"

By Jeff Cooper
Street Insight Contributor
8/29/2006 7:02 AM EDT


" "Say hello to my little friend."

That's what the oil bears could have been saying, a la Tony Montana, about Hurricane Ernesto to those longs who loaded up before the weekend expecting the worst. Ernesto wasn't as earnest as feared. The longs got caught in the idea that what played out last year would clearly repeat.

Consequently, crude oil futures collapsed approximately $2 on Monday as the longs unloaded. In the process, the U.S. Energy Fund (USO - commentary - Cramer's Take) broke and closed below the key 65 level. Remember, that is the neckline I showed recently that was telegraphing a break.

Moreover, I recently mentioned that if Iranian saber-rattling and the Aug. 31 U.N. deadline vis-a-vis sanctions on Iran, the Hezbollah/Israeli war, the BP (BP - commentary - Cramer's Take) pipeline problem in Alaska and the foiled British terrorist plot did not cause the well-advertised explosion to $80 and higher on oil, then the oil market was telegraphing lower prices.

Not to mention the fact that the OSX (the oil service index) and many oil stocks -- which were well off their highs with a series of lower highs and lower lows -- were saying something was amiss in the near-term bull case in oil.

I suspect if Ernesto had in fact developed into a super storm heading for rigs in the Gulf, then more than likely any spike higher would have been just that -- a relatively short-lived spike that would have been used as an opportunity to sell.

So, the market had a light-volume relief rally on Monday. Wall Street looked in the eye of the hurricane, and the hurricane blinked.

It may be the one-year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, and we may yet survive a 1-2 hurricane punch. But storm season is just beginning on Wall Street. Seasonality, long-term cycles and the four-year cycle are all topping simultaneously, not to mention the fact that, as I will show tomorrow on the Square of Nine Calculator, the price of the May high at 1327 is opposition in time to the closing high so far on the S&P 500 in August on this retracement rally. That occurred on Aug. 18, when the S&P closed at 1302.30. Despite Monday's relief rally to a somewhat higher high, the S&P closed at 1301.80.


Some analysts believe that many money managers have raised cash already and moved to the sidelines in anticipation of a weak September/October. Certainly there has been a lot more talk about this four-year cycle low that is due than I recall in either 2002, 1998 or 1994. Some believe that because there is considerable bearish sentiment about what September and October may bring, things will play out differently this time.

Perhaps, but I have seen markets move down on staunchly bearish sentiment and move meaningful higher on solid bullish sentiment. Similarly, I have seen breakouts succeed on what appears to be the lack of conviction of light volume, while I have also seen breakouts fail on strong volume.

Consequently, I would not be too quick to judge that the market will avoid the pressure the cycles suggest this fall just because a lot of people are aware of them and talking about them. In my view, it usually takes a universality of sentiment to make contrariness in and of itself a setup worth looking at. Market psychology is a strange and fickle thing to get your head around. The question is, did the approximate 9% correction off the May high satisfy the four-year cycle low due this year? Methinks not.



That said, technically speaking, the S&P is now in the eye of the storm and the crosshairs of time and price. The S&P has rallied back to the underbelly of the Live Angle to 1301/1302 I showed last week, while at the same time numerous cycles are poised to roll over.

In addition, as I often say, the market tends to play out in threes. Patternwise, either the S&P is poised to roll over from a 1-2-3 Swing Snapback or Pullback to a test of the breakdown pivot in May, or it is poised to surge higher from a third-higher low since June, which is my Power Surge Pattern.

Strategy: A look at the breakout over the consolidation in early May shows a short-lived spike that immediately reversed. It's too early to say that the S&P has traced out a fractal of that pattern currently, but any first-hour high on Tuesday that sees price reverse back below Monday's low is a definite warning flag. On the other hand, if the market holds up and continues to grind higher, stocks may be able to work their way up toward Labor Day.

(Is the S&P poised to surge higher from a third higher low? Was Monday an authentic breakout from a third-stage consolidation or has the S&P traced out a 1-2-3 Swing Pullback to test the 1300 breakdown level?) "

(in www.realmoney.com)