Novos contratos de arrendamento com maior queda desde a pandemia

[LTCM]

e para quem vai buscar dados de 1881 depois retirar uma conclusão relativa ao período muito especifico de 2008 a 2011...enfim... o que é que uma coisa tem a ver com outra, não?

Pata-Hari ninguém está contra aquilo que estás a dizer. É um facto: nos últimos 30 anos as Obrigações foram mais rentáveis que as acções.
[Os últimos 10 anos foram uma desgraça para as acções (de 1981 a 2001 - acções versus obrigações - resulta nisto : 13,91% versus 11,19%)]

Desde que existem dados fiáveis do mercado as acções, mesmo com um retorno insuficiente nas últimas três décadas, historicamente apresentam uma valorização de 4 pontos percentuais acima das Obrigações (9,7% versus 5,7%).

«It wouldn't take much for equities as a class to post better returns than they have in recent years. In the so-called lost decade from 2000 through 2009, the return on the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index, including dividends, averaged a negative 0.9% per year, according to investment researcher Morningstar Inc. But even at current prices, such large-cap stocks probably won't deliver the spectacular 18% annualized average gains that a generation of buyers enjoyed from 1980 to 1999. Still, right now stocks, particularly dividend payers, look more attractive than bonds—especially if down the road there's resurgent inflation, which whittles away fixed-income returns.


"The bond outlook is extraordinarily bad," says Jeremy Siegel." Bonds are in vogue and overvalued, much as stocks were at the end of the 1990s, he says. After 30 favorable years of declining yields and rising prices, the best case for bonds over the next couple of decades is a return of "zero" after inflation—and more likely a negative outcome, Mr. Siegel predicts.

If interest rates climb in future years, as is likely from today's very low levels, the prices of existing bonds with lower rates will fall. The impact may be felt more keenly by holders of bond mutual funds and exchange-traded funds than by investors who have bought individual bonds. The latter have the option to collect their bonds' full face value at maturity, while bond funds don't mature.

"We're in the very mature stages of the secular bull market in bonds," says David Rosenberg. "I'm not bearish on fixed income, but when the five-year [Treasury] note is below 1% you know the game is not over, but it's close to being over."

Stock prices, in contrast, don't appear inflated. At the end of 2011, the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index traded at just under 13 times estimated 2012 earnings—cheaper than its 17.5 average price/earnings ratio since the end of World War II, according to S&P Capital IQ. Compare that with March 1999, when the S&P 500 traded at 33.5 times earnings.»

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... alreport_0

O ambiente económico parece ser mais favorável ao investimento em acções, são um melhor refúgio contra a inflação. Mas existindo dúvidas, e mesmo se não existirem, nada como diversificar a carteira por diferentes ADI.

[Automech]

Se estiveres mesmo interessado no assunto o site, e também o blog, do Damodaran é uma boa base.

http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/

http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/

Obrigado LTCM. O blog, além de bastante interessante, tem no fundo da página 5 posts excelentes (Blog post series on growth). O outro site apenas vi de relance, mas só a parte das spreadsheet tem uma quantidade de material impressionante.

[Pata-Hari]

e para quem vai buscar dados de 1881 depois retirar uma conclusão relativa ao período muito especifico de 2008 a 2011...enfim... o que é que uma coisa tem a ver com outra, não?

[Pata-Hari]

LTCM, 1881???? como diz alguém que eu conheço... o que é que isso interessa? o que interessa são períodos de vida util, isso é o longo prazo. Se a 15 anos, a 20 anos e a 30 anos eu perder dinheiro em acções face às obrigações, isso é longo prazo. E nesse time frame as acções perderam face às obrigações.

(quando comecei por ler, li 1981 e só depois vi 1881)

[LTCM]

E infelizmente nem consigo ler o artigo, não sou assinante .

What the equity risk premium tells us today

By Jason Voss

Capital may loathe uncertainty, but in the wake of the sovereign debt crises in the US and Europe, it is equities that have borne the brunt of the selling pressure compared with heavily indebted countries’ government bonds, which in some cases have even gained in value. Jason Voss analyses the equity risk premium, a metric that helps explain this paradox – and that also provides important clues about the relative riskiness of stocks versus bonds.

What is the equity risk premium?
The equity risk premium quantifies the additional rate of return that investors require to compensate them for the risk of holding stocks as compared with holding a “risk free” asset. Equity investors require this additional return because equities come at the end of a business’s cash claimant line.

How is the equity risk premium calculated?
There is no universally agreed method to calculate the equity risk premium, but one simple way is to compare a given equity market’s earnings yield, defined as the inverse of the market’s price-to-earnings ratio, to a sufficiently long-dated government bond. In the US, the equity risk premium can be computed as follows:

ERP = earnings yield of S&P 500 – yield on 10-year US Treasury note

Why is the equity risk premium important now?
The sovereign debt crises unfolding on multiple continents highlight the relationship between an investment’s returns and its risks, which the equity risk premium helps to describe. When Standard & Poor’s downgraded the sovereign credit rating of the US last summer, for instance, US Treasury prices rose while stocks fell precipitously.

Since US stocks are inherently riskier than Treasuries, any increase in the riskiness of government bonds means that riskier assets, such as stocks, should also reflect these increased risks.

The equity risk premium expanded just after the downgrade.

How has the equity risk premium varied historically?
Based on S&P 500 data compiled by Yale University economist, Robert Shiller, the equity risk premium has averaged 2.45 per cent from January 1881 to end September 2011.

Over that period of time, the equity risk premium has been as high as 15.84 per cent (in December 1920) and as low as -4.38 per cent (in January 2000).

Can the equity risk premium be negative?
Logically, it may seem that the equity risk premium should never be negative. In that scenario, investors could sell their equity investments and buy “risk free” sovereign bonds that would pay a higher return. Yet over the 130 years of equity risk premium data it has been negative roughly 25 per cent of the time. One explanation is equity investors expect rapid earnings growth for the stock market to compensate them for the additional risk of holding equities. This would result in the bidding up of share prices and a consequent decline in the equity risk premium.

What other insights can the equity risk premium provide?
A negative equity risk premium seems to be an indication of when stocks are relatively overvalued. In fact, in the equity risk premium history considered, it turned negative for the first time in the exact three months that preceded the Great Crash of 1929. Immediately thereafter the equity risk premium was positive for many decades until September 1965 amid the Nifty Fifty period when it turned negative. From this moment the equity risk premium was negative for 75 per cent of the time until December 2007.

Interestingly, transitions between positive and negative equity risk premium seem to be correlated with turning points in economic history. Examples include transitions during each recession of the past 46 years and the 1973 Opec oil embargo.

At the individual stock level, a negative equity risk premium is a quick method of assessing valuation. The more negative the equity risk premium, the higher the growth of future earnings must be to compensate an investor for the additional risks assumed.

What does today’s equity risk premium level suggest about the future direction of the US stock market?
Since January 2008, the equity risk premium has been positive for the longest period of time since the mid-1970s, suggesting that recent stock market performance – considered by many to be disappointing – is not unusual, but consistent with the historical record. Further, it implies that the paradox of a negative equity risk premium, persistent for much of the past 40 years, has reversed itself. As of September 2011 the equity risk premium was 2.99 per cent, strongly in line with the historical norm and suggestive of fairly valued equities where excess returns may be unlikely.

Jason Voss is content director of fixed income, behavioural finance, quantitative methods and corporate finance at CFA Institute

High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/30eec02e-03d4 ... z1jCAqkqhu

[Pata-Hari]

Onde é que se vai buscar os retornos de ter estado investido nos ultimos 10 anos, 15 anos, 20 anos, 25 anos, 30 anos, 35 anos e 40 anos nos diferentes indices? e depois o retorno se se estivesse estado investido em obrigações (a gosto)?

(eu não tenho terminal bloomberg em casa, desculpem lá)

[Pata-Hari]

E infelizmente nem consigo ler o artigo, não sou assinante .

[Pata-Hari]

Não estou a perceber.... de 2008 até agora, não é longo prazo. É curto. E bolas, vais buscar o ultimo mínimo de mercado. Não é um ponto qualquer, "isento", é um ponto especifico num periodo muito especifico.

I mean something like this:

Say What? In 30-Year Race, Bonds Beat Stocks

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-3 ... ry.htmlSay What? In 30-Year Race, Bonds Beat Stocks

e mais este:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/bo ... 1981-2011/

(Estou a editar e a acrescentar outros artigos, sorry)

[LTCM]

LTCM, conheces algum site que tenha um gráfico de longo prazo com o prémio das acções ?

Se estiveres mesmo interessado no assunto o site, e também o blog, do Damodaran é uma boa base.

http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/

http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/

[Automech]

Confessa Mech, não esperavas assim tantas

Eu do baú do LTCM espero tudo por mais difícil ou improvável que seja.
Obrigado LTCM !

[Figueiraa1]

Estava a pensar em várias décadas

Confessa Mech, não esperavas assim tantas

[LTCM]

Estava a pensar em várias décadas

[Automech]

Estava a pensar em várias décadas

[LTCM]

LTCM, conheces algum site que tenha um gráfico de longo prazo com o prémio das acções ?

Longo prazo é desde quando

[Automech]

LTCM, conheces algum site que tenha um gráfico de longo prazo com o prémio das acções ?

[LTCM]

LTCM, o problema é que neste momento as acções não estão a pagar nenhum prémio de risco face às obrigações nem quando olhas no longo prazo.... já não se fala em retornos "malucos".

Since January 2008, the equity risk premium has been positive for the longest period of time since the mid-1970s, suggesting that recent stock market performance – considered by many to be disappointing – is not unusual, but consistent with the historical record. Further, it implies that the paradox of a negative equity risk premium, persistent for much of the past 40 years, has reversed itself. As of September 2011 the equity risk premium was 2.99 per cent, strongly in line with the historical norm and suggestive of fairly valued equities where excess returns may be unlikely.

Mas, como mais vale prevenir do que remediar, o melhor é diversificar.

[Pata-Hari]

LTCM, o problema é que neste momento as acções não estão a pagar nenhum prémio de risco face às obrigações nem quando olhas no longo prazo.... já não se fala em retornos "malucos".

[LTCM]

"The No. 1 thing people must do is bring down their return expectations," Mr. Arnott says. "If you're expecting 8%, you're going to behave differently than if you're expecting 4%; you're going to spend more freely and set your plans to retire earlier. At 4%, you're going to be saving more aggressively and planning to work longer."

Mr. Arnott doesn't believe that stocks are inherently better than other investments. Indeed, he believes too much attention was paid to equities in the past. People need to look at the "whole spectrum of investments available to them," he says, not just stocks and bonds.

In addition to mainstream equities and fixed income, he says, investors need a "third pillar" for their portfolio: assets that offset inflation. Chiefly, commodities and the stocks and bonds of commodity-producing countries, particularly those of emerging markets.

"The cult of equities did a lot of damage," Mr. Arnott says. "People are expecting the markets to do their saving for them by delivering a high return. That's just not realistic.

"Ratchet down your return expectations," he adds, "broaden the tool kit, and recognize that real returns are what matters."

___xxx___xxx___xxx___xxx___xxx___

S&P 500 forecast

In other forecasts for the Standard & Poor's 500 for this year:

Mr. Paulsen sees an S&P 500 total return, including dividends reinvested, “in the high teens to 20%. I think it will be a pretty good year. We really brought valuation down quite a bit” in 2011. He expects the index to end the year “in the upper 1,400s, maybe 1,475.”

Dan Morris, global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, London: “I probably am looking for a 10% gain or so for the index. So let's say a year-end target for 2012 of 1,400 for the price index, a little over 10% on price return ... so maybe a 13% to 14% total return. ... I think people are overly pessimistic (about the U.S. market) so I think that's the opportunity” for investors.

Milton Ezrati, partner, senior economist and market strategist, Lord Abbett & Co., Jersey City, N.J.: “There's a lot to worry about. The balance of probability is the market should be up between 10% and 20%” on a total return basis.

Joshua N. Feinman, chief economist and member of the global asset allocation team at Deutsche Asset Management, New York: The S&P 500 total return will be up only 5% to 10%.

Brett Hammond, senior economist, TIAA-CREF, New York: “Long-term S&P 500 gains are in the high single digits. It wouldn't surprise me if we were in that range” in 2012. “What we say is overoptimism shouldn't be in order when it comes to the S&P 500 or other (equity) market returns. We think that the forces that are underlying all this are really pointing in the direction of a modest expectation.”

[Supermann]

Se o padrão se repetir os novos mínimos serão por volta de 2012-2013. Uma grande oportunidade para entrar?

Yes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Estou-me a lembrar daquele diagrama que indicava topos e fundos e os periodos de bull e bear maket com as respectivas intensidades que eu à muito tempo postei aqui no forum e me chamaram "Prof. Bambo" e que mais tarde o AC o publicou e todos o elogiaram.

Desculpa?

Lembro-me que esse gráfico foi postado por um outro user bem antes de ti.

E niguém te ridiculariza por esse gráfico que é o ciclo de Benner, mas sim pelos teus gatafunhos algo ridículos.

[DC89]

Se o padrão se repetir os novos mínimos serão por volta de 2012-2013. Uma grande oportunidade para entrar?

Yes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Estou-me a lembrar daquele diagrama que indicava topos e fundos e os periodos de bull e bear maket com as respectivas intensidades que eu à muito tempo postei aqui no forum e me chamaram "Prof. Bambo" e que mais tarde o AC o publicou e todos o elogiaram.

[Sr_SNiper]

Se o padrão se repetir os novos mínimos serão por volta de 2012-2013. Uma grande oportunidade para entrar?

Yes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Estou-me a lembrar daquele diagrama que indicava topos e fundos e os periodos de bull e bear maket com as respectivas intensidades que eu à muito tempo postei aqui no forum e me chamaram "Prof. Bambo" e que mais tarde o AC o publicou e todos o elogiaram.

Eu acho que a maior parte das pessoas já te julga mesmo sem saber nade de ti e porque veêm os post dos outro a falar das tuas análises.

[Quico]

Se o padrão se repetir os novos mínimos serão por volta de 2012-2013. Uma grande oportunidade para entrar?

...ou talvez não.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/n5BCTxAvPgI" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

[EuroVerde]

Se o padrão se repetir os novos mínimos serão por volta de 2012-2013. Uma grande oportunidade para entrar?

Yes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Estou-me a lembrar daquele diagrama que indicava topos e fundos e os periodos de bull e bear maket com as respectivas intensidades que eu à muito tempo postei aqui no forum e me chamaram "Prof. Bambo" e que mais tarde o AC o publicou e todos o elogiaram.

[zkywalker]

Se o padrão se repetir os novos mínimos serão por volta de 2012-2013. Uma grande oportunidade para entrar?

[Pickbull]

15 anos para mim não é longo prazo. É bué de bué de muuuuuito longo prazo.

Para eu ficar com um título 15 anos é porque este está a ir de encontro à minha entrada sem grandes quebras para não activar o stop.

Tomara eu apanhar uma coisa dessas.