Imigração e lei da nacionalidade. Afinal, o que quer mudar o Governo?

[Dwer]

No Headline Call today due to National Holiday type volume possibility. HOWEVER, Market is ripe for larger scale move to the downside so look for an opportunity to go short including the possibility of a Bear Ugly day.

Trade Setup Summary for Friday, October 10, 2003:
No TCF Trade setups occured on Friday. Note: the range between the B/O and B/D was very tight (only 3.5 points) and is usually a CAUTION sign.

Recap of Friday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining us this morning. I hope you had a nice weekend and some relaxing moments.

I had put out a special memo on Friday about there being no Headline Call today and I will not post one although our Bias is extremely strong on the sell side today. Therefore (and please don't be mad at me if you took today off) I DO WANT TO MAKE TRADE SUGGESTIONS FOR TODAY. The reason is that sitting here late Sunday evening (after finishing up over 3 hours of homework and analysis on the markets) it looks like they could try and pull some shenanigans today as fewer will be watching. Full details below in our "Today's Call and Briefing" Section.

Friday turned out to be a non event with no real TCF Trade setups occuring. That is the fact. The market just didn't give any real solid, convincing evidence of a TCF setup HOWEVER if you traded the Hour One pivots you could have scalped a few points. The range or the volume was not there and you could see it in the High Five that the action was low key.

Now they did trade through the BreakOut by one tick just after the first hour at 10:31 est at 1039.50 but one of the main reasons that there was higher risk in taking a trade on Friday was the fact that the range between the B/O and B/D was only 3.5 points. Yikes. That is high risk. Anyway the price fluctuated between these points and you could have scalped some points off of those fluctuations but that really is not our system at all. Friday was simply better off left alone.

Today could be different though and I want to be ready and in the action in case anything big does setup which, as mentioned, after doing the nightly homework on Sunday tells me something is up. Here's the scoop.

Today's Call & Briefing:
Again, appologies for wanting to make trade suggestions for today after putting out the memo on Friday saying we would have no Headline Call and therefore no TCF Trade setup suggestions. I CAN'T HELP IT....the market is giving me tons of evidence for lower prices and we don't want to miss anything IN CASE the market gets rigged up for a surprise lower drop when many are not paying attention due to the holiday.

We have a TRIN Sell on Open trade gauge setup: We often refer to these specific setups which are based on an older mechanical method which is very reliable. Because of its reliability we use the setup as a GAUGE ONLY to derive more information on market bias. The setup for today gives us a signal for a short on the opening price. These are 2 day holds with a 65% reliability factor. BUT WE DO NOT TAKE THE ACTUAL TRADE. What we do is we MONITOR THE OPENING PRICE and watch for prices to hold BELOW the opening to confirm the Sell Bias. If the prices push above the opening we continue to stay bearish BUT we use a 12-15 point mental stop as a point where the TRIN trade signal is a failure. If they hold below the opening then we are expecting prices could drop for another day and a half or so

So let's monitor the opening a little more carefully than we usually do. You are monitoring the opening price each day aren't you? Remember, I have mentioned several times that this is one of the BEST PIVOTS OF THE TRADING DAY.

If we get the sell off action we are expecting to start, then the first goal lower will be 1010-1011.00 for strong support. (not today necessarily however)

TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: We are looking for the chance of a Bear Ugly day today with a gap lower opening and a strong, heavy Mega Bearish High Five coupled with some bad news that is affecting the markets. If that does not occur then we simply want to monitor the first hour and see what the Hour One Pivots are.

Look to Sell the BreakOut today if that is the first Hour One pivot hit and there is no Bullish BreakOut Buy setup. A B/O buy would occur if they Dow was up +50 or less at the time of the B/O and the NAZ was up +12-15 or more. With the TRIN lower below .80 or less and VIX down -.50 or more you have a recipe for a bullish BreakOut.

If this is NOT OCCURING then look to Sell the B/O. If the High Five is bullish then look to get a better price above the B/O by adding 2-4 points and selling in that zone.

If we find that it is another dead volume day with low range and no strong movements in the one minute bar or candles then just go back to taking the day off after the first few hours if there is no dramatic response. I am just seeing enough evidence that is causing me to want to man my computer/trading desk and BE READY if indeed something does show up. We can always get to the golf course (I live in California) a little later if necessary.

Value Area: 1,036.10 - 1,039.30
Here is the evidence of lower prices. Trading below this range, especially off the early opening, and HOLDING BELOW THIS RANGE is the a good sign they will move lower. Ideally on a Higher opening and early rally attempt this morning this will occur or just a strait Bear Ugly day to send em lower.

CAUTION: an early fast drop in the markets will find support and gradually move higher off those early lows today.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,036.00 - 1,037.00
No trade at this target but watch for the -4.25 stop/pivot to get challenged at 1031.75 and lower to catch a reflex rally back to 1036.00 area to short.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,043.00 - 1,042.00
No Trade at this target today. Let's attempt to get short IF we see the market press up against the +4.25 stop/pivot at 1047.25 and then drop back to the Sell Pivot here early in the session. The idea is that we can take a short here but we need to let the market attempt to react above the pivot and then come back down proving that it couldn't punch through the resistance at the 47.25 level.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,024.70
This is our first strong level of support on the way down to the 1011.00 area if the short term bearish aberration on our Buy Mode occurs. The beginning evidence of this as mentioned earlier will be today's prices not holding ABOVE THE OPENING.

Pro Trader's Action
Overall today as a recap we just want to first look for a higher opening and the failure of the 1047.00 area to go short at the Sell Pivot target after prices prove the resistance is real. Our next goal would be to see prices move below the Value Area which ideally will be below the OPENING PRICE. Compare this action to the BreakOut price and the reaction there. On the lower side we are going to be monitoring the Buy Pivot target for a trade through the -4.25 stop/pivot to give us a sell signal on a reflex rally back to the Buy Pivot price area. The only other occurance could be a Bear Ugly day and in our Trading Handbook we explain exactly what to do with these

If you are new on the trial then why not join us for a full subscription and get immediate access to our TCF Trading Handbook. I've had subscribers tell me this Handbook is worth 100,000$ with the S&P500 trading methods shown. You will get our daily briefings which are like a page of the Trading Handbook new everyday with ideas and lessons in how to trade like a pro The best part is our annual cost is less than a cup of coffee (or a spot of tea) a day.

All the best of success today and I'll see you in the action. Mohan