Wall Street fecha semana em alta. S&P 500 e Nasdaq atingem recorde

[Dwer]

Continue to Sell Rallies and stay on the sell side as we look for lower prices.

Recap of Monday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining with us today.

On Monday we were looking to sell rallies on a higher opening in prices looking for a later day pullback. We got a flat to just slightly higher opening and an early pullback in the first 20-30 minutes which is generally bullish for Monday's. The overall day ran up slightly higher to hit the BreakOut High in the 1031.50 area, pushed up to tap the Sell Pivot Target (which we had recommended selling) and then pulled back a few points all in a tight 7.60 range. A real go-nowhere type day which never gave us any real punch to the downside with a bullish/neutral type High Five almost all day.

For most who got in the trade it amounted to a small 2-3 pt. loss but if you had waited for the exact sell pivot target there was a rather fast 4 point sell off from there in which you may have done slightly better.

Today's Call & Briefing:
Today we are looking for lower prices overall and want to be on the sell side of any attempts for the market to move higher. What is important today is to be ready for a surprise downside move that could signal a Bear Ugly day. We have the ingredients for that so we are putting out that ALERT.

If we do get an early rally attempt that tries to stretch outside of the Value Area and enter the Sell Pivot target zone then we will be once again looking to hit that Sell Pivot Target with a short. I am rather not expecting a repeat of this but more of a downside early move that tends to drift lower today.

TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR: Be on the lookout, as mentioned, for a possible Bear Ugly day (would love to see this for "academic purposes" for our new subscribers).

Also we want to be on the lookout for early lower prices that are NOT part of a Bear Ugly setup where we need to look to buy the BreakDown. This would occur if the High Five were not that bearish at the time of the B/D being the first Hour One pivot hit.

Once again we would be willing to Sell the BreakOut but it would be rare to see that repeat again. It could be tricky today because, as you know, we are looking for a larger scale sell day.

Today may end up one of those "Sneak Down" Bear Ugly type days that have been appearing a few times over the last 2 months. I had never really seen days like those before and so we named them "Sneak Down Bear Ugly". These are tricky in that the NEWS is bad, the symptoms show up for a Bear Ugly sell off but the price movements tend to fool everyone by not DECISIVELY selling off...only drifting lower. Later we look at them and they are down substantially below the Hour One Pivot lows.

Value Area: 1,029.70 - 1,034.50
Look for trade that opens up below the Value Area and holds below the Value Area to be very bearish for today. If we do get a bounce off the Hour One BreakDown then watch for resistance up at this 1029.70 for continued erosion. I am rather expecting one more slightly higher day up so if we get any early higher prices and a sell off we would look for a bounce to produce a small final up day.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,028.75 - 1,029.75
We will not be trading this pivot today as a direct Buy signal but watching for the -4.25 stop/pivot at 1024.50 to get taken out. If this occurs then we want to see a rather quick "reflex rally" back to the original Buy Pivot MINUS 1.00 to reverse and go short. Usually these type of trades when they set up correctly are worth 8-10 points on the reversal to the downside from the Buy Pivot target. So if the trade setups up nicely then calculate your profit area according to this.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,036.50 - 1,035.50
Let's go ahead and sell them up here again if we get the bounce to this target. This is just above the top of the VA so we would look for prices to pull back into the VA if this does get hit and we get short. That would help confirm the trade and we would then look for the trade to move below the VA for us to take our profits nicely.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,012.10
We are still decisively above this Pit Bull and as such would want to see dips continue to get bought down to this pivot. Right now the Pit Bull is sitting at an important support spot below 1016.50. If they smack em through the 1016 area then this number should appear soon after before finding stronger support.

Pro Trader's Action
Overall today we are going to once again look to stay on the sell side of the market. The Market Force underlying mode had turned to bullish last week but now we are on the lookout for an aberration to occur which could drive prices lower. The key will be to see how much lower they get hammmered before finding support. The first goal lower for support would be 1016.50 area and then below that 1011.00.

Let's just be patient to watch for the sell side trade to open up and look for range expansion on that side.

Once again thanks to all who attended our San Diego 21st Century Futures seminar and a special thank you to those who participated in our Magic show especially the super cool, good sport broker who we gave a "good execution" to...all in good fun.

Good luck today and I'll see you in the action. Mohan