Ao minuto: EUA atacam Irão. Teerão perto de fechar Estreito de Ormuz

[Bicho]

Já não se pode obviar o facto das três net stocks (YHOO, EBAY e AMZN) pesarem tanto no Nasdaq 100 como a INTC.
Abraços

[Incognitus]

Com um trend tão certinho como aquele ultimamente, quase de certeza que isso se vai verificar, a menos que saiam notícias exclusivas para a EBAY.

[Camisa Roxa]

Será que a EBAY poderá servir de barómetro para este rally?

Ou seja, quando a EBAY mudar a agulha podemos inferir que o rally acabou?

Normalmente há leading stocks quer nas fases ascendentes quer correctivas que são as primeiras a indicar as respectivas mudanças de tendência, será que a EBAY poderá representar esse papel nesta fase?

[Camisa Roxa]

Vejam só o gráfico disto e como a EBAY está quase nos máximos de 2000!

[Ulisses Pereira]

"The eBay Bubble Expands and Expands"

By James J. Cramer
07/08/2003 08:00 AM EDT


"Must we be worried about eBay? Must we be troubled by its endless rally? Should we be oblivious to the fact that it can't be justified by any metric but momentum? Can a single stock signal anything to us, making us more concerned that we have divorced the fundamentals and are strictly playing by the crazy rules of 1999-2000?

eBay, far more than say, Cisco or Intel, causes me concern. I can always justify the valuations of Cisco or Intel by talking about the possibility of huge out years.


For the longest time I was willing to justify eBay on the out years too, mostly valuations based on 2006 and 2007 earnings given that the company seems to have no competition. I don't think that washes any more, though. Not the competitive part, the valuation part. It's probably expensive on 2009 earnings.

So I cordon it off instead. I consider it like AOL in the mid 1990s, or like Cisco from 1997 on, just something that has captured the fascination of people and has become a proxy for momentum, a momentum future, so to speak. It's like betting on the over in a football game with two offensive powers that don't play defense.

Or, to put it another way, it has nothing to do with investing. Those who say that owning eBay is investing are people who also invest in the over of next year's Super Bowl.

As long as it's just eBay involved as a proxy for momentum, and not whole gobs of stocks, I will play. But it sure would be easier if everyone who owned it would admit that they own it simply because it is going up and not because it's a fair representation of the business of eBay. That's just delusional.

But I am open-minded. If you can come up with a legitimate rationale that isn't tainted by the late 1990s, I am willing to print it, right here, with your name. I add the latter, your name, because you and I both know that, alas, there is no rationale for it. "

(in www.realmoney.com)