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[Ulisses Pereira]

"From 1991's Road Map to 1999's Skyway"

By James J. Cramer
06/19/2003 07:59 AM EDT


"You want to be oblivious to Firsthand's Kevin Landis on the screen. You want to try to ignore the upgrades of PMC-Sierra and Applied Micro Circuits.

You want to try to pretend that Amazon doesn't go up every day. You want to believe that Broadcom's levitation act has, at its roots, a dramatic turn in orders. You want to act as if we still aren't fixated on DRAM price increases, or that it's OK that Cymer didn't go down more when they told you it was awful.


But Wednesday I felt overwhelmed. I felt that we had not only deviated from the 1991 road map, but that we truly were in June and July of 1999. It was so darned brazen, so plain old stupid, that the only thing I could cling to was that the stocks really are down a lot, and it will be weeks, if not months, before they return to levels that are so silly that we've set ourselves up for a comeuppance.

Of course, it's the Fed that has set us up. The Fed and Freddie Mac, for all we know, because we have thrown so much stimulus at this market -- by my take, $600 billion in health care benefits, $600 billion in defense spending and a mammoth cut in taxes -- that the idea of still one more rate cut seems downright ludicrous to me.

In fact, I found Wednesday deeply discouraging. We had Maryann Keller on "Kudlow & Cramer" talking about how the autos can't turn; yet I know they will go up because they haven't moved. We have Vernon Loeb and Steve Binder on from The Washington Post and Bear Stearns, respectively, saying that the defense procurement budget is basically out of control. (That's my term, not theirs.) Meanwhile, rates go lower!


What's wrong with this picture? How about everything?


So we are in one of those moments where, intellectually, it is now almost impossible to stay as long as you are, but you know that when the Landises of the world last rocked like this, there were months and months of outperformance ahead. You know that Landis represents the near-term future because his numbers are good (as anyone who simply swings for the fences all of the time will be eventually).

So what do you do? You keep taking profits off the table, that's what you do -- gently, gingerly, but knowingly, that we are again diverging from the 1991 road map onto the 1999 skyway.

And you consciously decide that, in the coming months, you will have to make less than you could otherwise, because it's getting really nuts in the casino again. And you don't want to crash on the way home. "

(in www.realmoney.com)