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January 23, 2008
Are regulators finally set to make a decision about the merger between Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) and XM Satellite Radio (XMSR)? Investors are once again betting that this is the case.

Briefing.com, a site that is widely followed by traders, is citing an unnamed report Wednesday morning saying that “XMSR-SIRI merger could receive approval from DoJ and FCC tonight.” That isn’t much in the way of any real information. but don’t tell that to Wall Street.

Shares of XM were up nearly 4 percent in mid-morning trading while Sirius’ stock gained more than 5 percent. This is worth noting considering that the rest of the stock market, and the tech sector in particular, is trading lower Wednesday, thanks in large part to Apple’s (AAPL) disappointing outlook.

But as I’ve pointed out repeatedly since chatter that approval of this deal was said to be “imminent” in late November, it’s silly for investors to try and bet on when exactly the Department of Justice and Federal Communications Commission will issue their rulings.

Spokesmen for both Sirius and XM declined to comment on the latest speculation as did spokeswomen at the FCC and DOJ.

I still think the merger should, and will, eventually be approved. But this is a complicated deal so nothing is certain. And even though it may seem that the DOJ and FCC are dragging their feet on it, recent history shows that the regulators are not taking that much longer to review this merger than they have for other deals that have antitrust implications. As I reported last week, the FCC took longer than its informal 180-day guideline to approve AT&T’s (T) purchase of BellSouth in 2006, as well as Comcast (CMCSA) and Time Warner’s (TWX) purchase of bankrupt cable company Adelphia. (Time Warner also owns CNNMoney.com.)

There is nothing to suggest that a ruling is going to be announced today, this week, or even this month. So my words of advice to anxious Sirius and XM shareholders would be “Patience, grasshopper. Patience.” Stop buying and selling on unsubstantiated rumors and just sit back and wait for the inevitable, although not necessarily imminent, announcement.