Todd Harrison: "Will the Fed's Cut Work?"
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Todd Harrison: "Will the Fed's Cut Work?"
"Answers I Really Wanna Know: Will the Fed's Cut Work?"
Todd Harrison Jan 22, 2008 9:10 am
" While it promises to be a long, hard road, doesn’t every journey have uphill climbs?
As 75 bips was “priced in” to the Fed Fund Futures, the SINGLE biggest question out there is: will it work?
Can we all agree that those scissors are simply one of many policy tools?
If YOU were the Treasury Secretary and had a “Buy it Now!” button, wouldn’t you incessantly press it today to protect your BFF on the Beltway?
We live in interesting times, eh?
Is that bullet in their back pocket?
Through the lens of denial, migration and panic, are we finally entering the final trimester on a trading basis?
Particularly with bellwethers such as Citigroup (C), Merrill (MER), Fannie Mae (FNM) and General Motors (GM) down upwards of 50% from recent highs?
But isn’t the stock market a different conversation than the economy given Big Ben’s chipper chime last week that he didn’t foresee a recession?
What if it isn’t a recession—what if it’s something entirely more depressing than that?
Even so, wouldn’t that take time and price to creep into the collective consciousness?
Are the Giants a better team without Jeremy Shockey in the line-up?
While it promises to be a long, hard road, doesn’t every journey have uphill climbs?
Will you remember to “conserve energy” once we’ve raced up that road?
While Bank of America’s (BAC) subprime hit is being fingered as a downside catalyst, isn’t psychology just as likely a culprit?
I mean, haven’t we been saying that we would see some nosty spillage when faith in the Fed falters?
Do you see the technical importance of S&P 1240 and NDX 1700?
Anytime you privatize gains and socialize losses, don’t you open the door to moral hazard?
Aren’t all this stimulus packages segues rather than solutions?
Anyone wanna bet a buck that Goldman (GS) has a write-down in its upcoming report?
Is there anyone out there who isn’t gonna buy the first dip?
After the second, deeper, gut-check dip, will you be watching the DNA of the rally in terms of volume, leadership, levels and tenor?
After the inevitable Snapper (which may begin from lower levels), will you remember that “selling dips” trumps “buying dips” as a stylistic approach?
Are we gonna see a lot more Nationalization as a function of need?
Was I early on my 2007 themes?
Will I be equally early on my 2008 vibage?
JP Morgan (JPM) has a bigger market capitalization than Citigroup?
That’s gotta make Jamie Dimon happy, eh?
Is it me or are there a LOT more homeless people mulling around?
Have you seen this particularly funny episode of Hoofy & Boo?
Will you remember that gold is an attractive asset class when it’s trading around $700?
Isn’t debt more pervasive than dot.com and real estate?
Jeezums, why are people so dead set against a recession?
Isn’t it part of the natural business cycle?
Will those ratchet protection provisions come back to haunt the big banks?
Corporatocracy what?
Can China hold it together into the Olympics?
What the heck happened to the January effect?
Do you have your laundry list out with risk appetites and time horizon defined?
Will you remember that emotions are best left for weddings and funerals?"
(in www.minyanville.com)
Todd Harrison Jan 22, 2008 9:10 am
" While it promises to be a long, hard road, doesn’t every journey have uphill climbs?
As 75 bips was “priced in” to the Fed Fund Futures, the SINGLE biggest question out there is: will it work?
Can we all agree that those scissors are simply one of many policy tools?
If YOU were the Treasury Secretary and had a “Buy it Now!” button, wouldn’t you incessantly press it today to protect your BFF on the Beltway?
We live in interesting times, eh?
Is that bullet in their back pocket?
Through the lens of denial, migration and panic, are we finally entering the final trimester on a trading basis?
Particularly with bellwethers such as Citigroup (C), Merrill (MER), Fannie Mae (FNM) and General Motors (GM) down upwards of 50% from recent highs?
But isn’t the stock market a different conversation than the economy given Big Ben’s chipper chime last week that he didn’t foresee a recession?
What if it isn’t a recession—what if it’s something entirely more depressing than that?
Even so, wouldn’t that take time and price to creep into the collective consciousness?
Are the Giants a better team without Jeremy Shockey in the line-up?
While it promises to be a long, hard road, doesn’t every journey have uphill climbs?
Will you remember to “conserve energy” once we’ve raced up that road?
While Bank of America’s (BAC) subprime hit is being fingered as a downside catalyst, isn’t psychology just as likely a culprit?
I mean, haven’t we been saying that we would see some nosty spillage when faith in the Fed falters?
Do you see the technical importance of S&P 1240 and NDX 1700?
Anytime you privatize gains and socialize losses, don’t you open the door to moral hazard?
Aren’t all this stimulus packages segues rather than solutions?
Anyone wanna bet a buck that Goldman (GS) has a write-down in its upcoming report?
Is there anyone out there who isn’t gonna buy the first dip?
After the second, deeper, gut-check dip, will you be watching the DNA of the rally in terms of volume, leadership, levels and tenor?
After the inevitable Snapper (which may begin from lower levels), will you remember that “selling dips” trumps “buying dips” as a stylistic approach?
Are we gonna see a lot more Nationalization as a function of need?
Was I early on my 2007 themes?
Will I be equally early on my 2008 vibage?
JP Morgan (JPM) has a bigger market capitalization than Citigroup?
That’s gotta make Jamie Dimon happy, eh?
Is it me or are there a LOT more homeless people mulling around?
Have you seen this particularly funny episode of Hoofy & Boo?
Will you remember that gold is an attractive asset class when it’s trading around $700?
Isn’t debt more pervasive than dot.com and real estate?
Jeezums, why are people so dead set against a recession?
Isn’t it part of the natural business cycle?
Will those ratchet protection provisions come back to haunt the big banks?
Corporatocracy what?
Can China hold it together into the Olympics?
What the heck happened to the January effect?
Do you have your laundry list out with risk appetites and time horizon defined?
Will you remember that emotions are best left for weddings and funerals?"
(in www.minyanville.com)
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