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[Ulisses Pereira]

Duas coisas, Semitela:

"The Vix is not the only indicator"

Não se pode unir 3 pontos, quando o terceiro é o actual...

Um abraço,
Ulisses

[Semitela]

Boas Ulisses ,

Se ligarmos os três picos por uma LTD temos tudo para termos uns dias de subida e acalmia no mercado

abraços

[Ulisses Pereira]

"The VIX Is Only One Indicator"

By Helene Meisler
RealMoney.com Contributor
1/18/2008 7:57 AM EST


"The way my inbox filled up with questions about the VIX's jump yesterday made me think about those old Campbell's Soup commercials -- "Is it soup yet?"

I have been discussing the need for a jumpy VIX for so long that I'm sure you folks are tired of hearing it. But now I see the media has glommed on to this indicator as if were the signal from the Market Gods.

Let me explain something to you about the VIX (or any other indicator, for that matter). Not one indicator works all on its own.

Write that down and paste it to your screen.

You need a confluence of indicators to get a good low (or a good high). The jumpy VIX is just one ingredient.

Yes, it got jumpy yesterday. And it can get jumpier. Do you think any of us will be able to pick the exact low? I know I won't. I can tell you that now.

What I do know is that we have been oversold for a week or so now, and we have not been able to rally. I also know that the 30-day moving average of the advance/decline line is not yet oversold.

I also know that upside volume as a percentage of total volume on the NYSE (30-day moving average) still sits at 44%. Previous lows have come from readings closer to 40%-42%. And in the bear market of 2000-02, readings were more typically under 40%, in the upper 30s. Those are the negatives.

I also know that the Index put/call ratio did (finally!) go over 200%. The ISEE call/put ratio sank to 60%. The total put/call ratio on the CBOE zoomed to 153%. And there were fewer stocks making new lows yet again. And yes, the VIX jumped. Those are the positives.

I also don't think there was panic out there yesterday. I know you might be shocked to know that, but somehow I think folks have become immune to the decline. It bothers me that all of a sudden CNBC is on "VIX watch" after ignoring this indictor for so long.

It bothers me that they are talking about capitulation. Why aren't they showing us the Investors Intelligence readings and how the bulls refuse to go down?

And why isn't anyone reminding us that we usually go down the day after an options expiration (which would be Tuesday, since the markets are closed on Monday)

But there's one more thing that bothers me. Oh, I know it's anecdotal, but my mother hasn't called. Not once. And I even called her last weekend. She has yet to return the call. She hasn't even emailed me.

Normally, I would pick up the phone and call again, but I'll be honest -- I want to see when she gets panicked enough to call me about the market. And it doesn't work as a signal unless she initiates it on her own!

So CNBC can rant and rave all they want about the VIX, but I have my own secret indicator they can't glom on to. My mother simply is not going to call those folks and panic to them! I do suspect she will call over the weekend, but will she ask if she should sell? That is one question we don't know the answer to!

So, I know we're close to a tradable low, but I'm waiting for the phone call as well as the indicators to say so. "

(in www.realmoney.com)