Montenegro anuncia redução de IRS nas rendas, isenção de mais-valias e maior dedução à coleta

[acintra]

Não esperavam é que a Hilary Clinton ficasse em 3º. Vai ser uma campanha muito dificil para a ex-primeira dama.
Quanto a Obama, duvido que seja um bom presidente para os USA visto que falta-lhe experiençia e conhecimento de alguns dossiers importantes.

DES MOINES - Iowa wasn’t supposed to matter - at least as much. Neither was New Hampshire. The 2008 presidential cycle was supposed to be the year when the big states finally said, “Enough with the outsize influence of small states that look nothing like the nation.”

That’s the message California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger sent the political world last March when he signed a bill shifting his state’s primary from the status of an after-thought in the presidential contest (Californians didn’t vote until June) to one of several power-brokers weighing in on February 5. Schwarzenegger’s action set off a stampede of other big states wanting in on the game. New York moved its primary to Feb. 5, joining other large states to create “Super Duper Tuesday.”

Then Florida Governor Charlie Crist muscled past both, signing a bill to vote on Jan. 29, ten days after South Carolina. There was plenty of commentary about how this new, souped-up calendar would change the ’08 race: We would see a quasi-national primary, all wrapped up by Valentine’s Day. Iowa and New Hampshire would hardly be noticed in the crush of all those huge states voting so early. New Yorkers Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani - both topping the national polls last summer - looked like they had the edge. Clinton considered skipping Iowa but thought better of it; Giuliani ignored both Iowa and New Hampshire. Florida, the biggest swing state in the nation, would be his gateway to victory.

But for all that jockeying, there’s no sign that the power of the tiny percentage of Iowans heading to their caucuses tonight - or that of New Hampshire voters going to the polls next Tuesday - has been diminished. Guiliani’s decision not to forcefully compete in Iowa or New Hampshire meant that he slipped out of the political conversation (except to be battered by news accounts of his personal and business lives). His national numbers have slipped from 38 percent last summer to 20 percent now, according to the Real Clear Politics poll average. He’s still slightly in the lead, but the trajectory is downward, and he’s lost most of his lead in Florida to Mike Huckabee.

Clinton can lose Iowa without too much damage - she got a late start organizing here after finally decided to play the state. (Her strategists are peddling low expectations to the press this week). But if a second loss followed in New Hampshire, it could be devastating. She will have lost that aura of inevitability that surrounded her candidacy for most of the year - and her presumed rival, Barack Obama, will enjoy powerful momentum.

An Obama victory would be rocket jets for his campaign - especially if combined with a win in New Hampshire. If John Edwards wins tonight, it will give him national momentum. If he loses, he doesn’t have the resources to fight much longer. On the Republican side, both of these small states have already defined political fates. Iowa, with its wide base of GOP Christian conservatives, put Huckabee on the map - so that he now ranks second or third nationally. New Hampshire has given John McCain his comeback moment (just as it gave him a surprise surge against George W. Bush in 2000). And for Romney - who staked his campaign on early wins in these states only to face surprise 11th hour challenges from Huckabee in Iowa and McCain in New Hampshire - losses in both states would be hard to overcome. Actor Fred Thompson enjoyed a long ride near the top of the national polls. But that’s not what counts today, when party strategists are saying he needs to make a strong third place showing in tonight’s caucuses in order to stay in the race.

As New Hampshire officials watched the big states leapfrog over each other to get to the front of the voting pack, they panicked about the Granite State’s sudden loss of political stature. Up until a few weeks ago, state officials were considering lifting its primary out of 2008 altogether - and dropping it onto the calendar in December, 2007. As it turns out, they didn’t need to worry. By the time major states vote in a couple weeks, the contours of the race on both sides will look very, very different than they do this week. And the two states that still define those contours are ones with more barns than skyscrapers.