Portugal vai ganhar 1.400 milionários estrangeiros este ano

[IX Hispana]

Tenho gostado bastante de ler estes reports.São uma mais-valia deste forum! Cumps.

[Camisa Roxa]

ontem entrei long e queimei-me logo. O que vale é que tinha um stop apertado e a perda foi pequena

Não vale a pena nadar contra a corrente

O Nichols diz que o fundo ainda não está feito e que só saiu porque a aproximação ao fundo pode provocar um dia de grandes subidas que por sua vez poderia despoletar um short covering rally

Vamos ver, o melhor é não levar posições abertas para 3ª feira (também não sabia que era feriado nos states, ainda há pouco tempo tiveram um feriado e agora já outro!)

[Capablanca]

... os dados actuais dão 42% de bulls e 31% de bears (é isto não é Ulisses? Thanks).

Parece que ainda não atingimos uma situação de sentimento extrema como afirma o David ... ainda que possamos subir aqui um dia penso que é mais ou menos certo que os 775 serão atingidos nas próximas semanas, olhando apenas para o gráfico do S&P parece claro, não tem qualquer suporte até lá.

Abraço.

[Capablanca]

... de qualquer forma os gráficos estão irrepreensíveis no downside, o S&P só encontra suporte nos 775 pontos, pois a subida feita desses níveis foi directa sem qualquer consolidação. OS meus indicadores de sentimento ainda não estão nem de perto nem de longe tão «bearish», que neste caso na Teoria da Opinião Contrária significa bullish.

Still short on the S&P ...

Por outro lado, alguém deixou em baixo um artigo a dizer que a grande maioria espera que a seguir ao início da guerra haja um grande rally, e muitos esperam aí o início de uma subida de longo prazo como aconteceu em 91. Prudência, opinião contrária, e let the profits run do lado short parece ser a opção acertada.

Abraço !

[Camisa Roxa]

THURSDAY a.m.
February 13, 2003



Exit Bearish Rydex Positions at the Close Today
by David Nichols

We're going to exit both our bearish Rydex positions in both the Tempest Fund (RYTPX) and the Venture Fund (RYVNX).

The "easy part" of this downtrend is behind us, and we're getting too close to extremes of bearish sentiment, making it too dicey to hold onto leveraged, end-of-day funds.

A look at our Sentiment Dashboard below provides confirmation. The sentiment tank is at 85% full, and the mid-term downtrend is registering 92 on the gauge.

Of course this doesn't preclude the markets from accelerating to the downside here. Often the end-stage of a decline is where the most significant price damage occurs, as a sudden jolt of fear sparks a sudden rush of panic selling among those that are still holding long positions. We're going to forego the potential gains from that scenario in the sake of prudence. But if such a sell-off does occur to the downside, we'll be more than ready to jump in at the bottom and ride the bungee cord back up.

Right now there is already a significant crowd on the bearish side -- how could there not be in this market? -- and the set-up is there for a dramatic snap-back rally. If you're holding leveraged bearish positions that can only be exited at the end-of-the-day, then such a rally would be very painful to live through. Case in point: We saw a lot of profit evaporate on the "Cisco rally" last May, when the company gave a completely bogus rosy outlook and sparked a massive short-covering rally. (And yes, I'm still harboring a grudge, as I knew at the time that Cisco's cheery optimism was ridiculous.)

So we're going to try to exit gracefully today, while the downtrend is still holding forth. It's better to be a little early, when market prospects look bleak. Hopefully, Murphy won't show up waving his law around, and today won't be the big short-covering day. This is unlikely, as a short-term decline phase just got going yesterday, and we should see some downside follow-through from that.

Note to options traders: we can pinpoint our timing much more exactly in this service, so we'll look to take profits on our bearish positions intraday over the next few sessions.

We won't know the ultimate tally on the Rydex positions until the close of trading today, after we get the closing NAV. As of yesterday's close, we're up 9.2% in the Venture, and 13.9% in the Tempest, in 15 trading days. It's true I only recommended a small position, as there really hasn't been a compelling reason to make big bets in this type of market, but at least we've got the accounts moving in the right direction.

The time I would step up and make the call to be aggressive is if we see some sort of wipeout low right here, as we'd need to build a sizeable position ahead of the inevitable snap-back rally. But I just don't think that's coming.

Monday is a market holiday for President's day, and one thing I've noticed is a strong tendency for the markets to reverse the mid-term trend over a long holiday weekend. I've looked at this closely in the past and it happens more often than not. It's definitely something to keep in mind, especially with some timing model signals pointing to a bottom coming tomorrow, Feb. 14th.

Another reason I want to exit our positions is a chart that Tom McClellan just showed, plotting the ratio of money in the Rydex Titan Fund compared to the money in the Rydex Tempest Fund. The Titan Fund is the leveraged bullish fund, and the Tempest Fund -- the one we're in -- is leveraged to the downside.

This ratio just hit an all-time low of money bet on the bullish side vs. the bearish side. Specifically, there is $77.0 million in the bullish Titan Fund, and $645.8 million in the bearish Tempest Fund. That's a big overload in one direction, and it makes me nervous to be part of a crowd that large, even if it is the more experienced, "professional"-type traders that use these funds. This next chart is courtesy of McClellan Financial Publications:



The VIX still has room to move higher, but it's already hovering around 40 now. The jump up in the VIX yesterday cycled the markets back into a short-term decline phase, and I'm counting on this short-term decline to extend through today to give us a graceful and profitable exit at the close.



I'm not advocating bullish positions here. We don't want to step in and call the bottom unless the tank hits 100%, or we see evidence that the mid-term trend has truly turned. It's much, much safer to do it that way.

Sentiment Dashboard
by Adam Oliensis



SENTIMENT TANK: The tank was filled another 5% or so with negative sentiment on Wednesday to "85% full." We could be getting very close to an important bottom.

SHORT-TERM: As of Wednesday morning's dashboard the hourly gauge had rolled over on its side to neutral and we were anticipating a turn into a decline phase. That's just what we got. The hourly advance phase was a lame little affair and served only as a brief respite in the mid-term decline.

MID-TERM: The mid-term momentum of bearish sentiment continued on its inexorable march like the Charge of the Light Brigade, straight into the jaws of hell, progressing to 92% in its decline phase.

Our Confidence Diffusion Index (CDI) popped back up to 6 (out of 7). If the VIX goes sharply up through 40 we'll go to a maximal reading of 7. Just about every technical element is pointing DOWN.

This mid-term decline is extremely evolved. However in a vicious trend, like this one, the gauge can be taken to an extreme and it can STAY there for a time as the market racks and heaves in the paroxysms of capitulation. How aggressively one presses the advantage on short positions here is a question of style and risk tolerance. It's quite possible that the market could become very, very volatile as it approaches either a climactic decline or a sharp reversal.

LONG-TERM: The weekly momentum of sentiment progressed from 38% to 42% in its decline phase. The weekly CDI remained at 5, but could move to 6 with just a little tickle and a nudge.