Cramer- "eBay, the Must-Own That Can't Be Owned"
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Cramer- "eBay, the Must-Own That Can't Be Owned"
Neste artigo Cramer toca num ponto muito importante e refere como uma empresa que ele considera excelente e com um grande potencial de crescimento pode não ser uma boa compra. Porquê? Porque é cara...
"eBay, the Must-Own That Can't Be Owned"
By James J. Cramer
01/21/2003 10:33 AM EST
"When do you suspend valuation concerns because business is just so unbelievably strong? When do you decide that you will look at 2007 numbers and make a valuation on those and not 2003 numbers, which justify selling, not buying?
That's what I keep wondering about eBay. This company has the single-best business model and growth possibilities of any company I follow. It owns the market for auctions. It's like Internet Capital Group, Verticalnet, CMGI and all of the other wannabes on exchanges combined. You can use it as a wholesaler. You can use it as a liquidator. You can use it to buy anything. You can make it a national classified company. You can make it the biggest care dealer. It has captured virtually all of the promise of the Net, all in one big package.
But it sells at 85 times earnings -- this year's earnings. I don't see how you can buy a stock that sells at 85 times earnings. It sells at 57 times next year's earnings. After the lessons of the late '90s, how can you afford to pay that much? It is numbing.
However, what happens if it is selling at nine or 10 times 2007's earnings. Or less? That's what happens with truly great growth companies. They sell at absurd levels to the out years.
Right now people are focusing on eBay -- good people, people whose judgment you respect -- and they are trying to figure out how they can justify buying this stock because of its explosive growth. They know that lots of hedge funds are short it as a matter of principle. They recognize that eBay may turn out to be the cheapest stock they will ever own.
But they won't pull the trigger. Of course, others -- the momentum funds who never gave a darn about valuation -- are in it. They're in it in spades. Given that they're so trigger-happy that they'll sell stock the moment something looks askew, nobody good wants to join them.
Yet eBay is the true challenge to rigor here. It is the must-own that can't be owned, the best company of the quarter so far. It's both the scariest and the most exciting company out there.
What a dilemma! "
(in www.realmoney.com)
"eBay, the Must-Own That Can't Be Owned"
By James J. Cramer
01/21/2003 10:33 AM EST
"When do you suspend valuation concerns because business is just so unbelievably strong? When do you decide that you will look at 2007 numbers and make a valuation on those and not 2003 numbers, which justify selling, not buying?
That's what I keep wondering about eBay. This company has the single-best business model and growth possibilities of any company I follow. It owns the market for auctions. It's like Internet Capital Group, Verticalnet, CMGI and all of the other wannabes on exchanges combined. You can use it as a wholesaler. You can use it as a liquidator. You can use it to buy anything. You can make it a national classified company. You can make it the biggest care dealer. It has captured virtually all of the promise of the Net, all in one big package.
But it sells at 85 times earnings -- this year's earnings. I don't see how you can buy a stock that sells at 85 times earnings. It sells at 57 times next year's earnings. After the lessons of the late '90s, how can you afford to pay that much? It is numbing.
However, what happens if it is selling at nine or 10 times 2007's earnings. Or less? That's what happens with truly great growth companies. They sell at absurd levels to the out years.
Right now people are focusing on eBay -- good people, people whose judgment you respect -- and they are trying to figure out how they can justify buying this stock because of its explosive growth. They know that lots of hedge funds are short it as a matter of principle. They recognize that eBay may turn out to be the cheapest stock they will ever own.
But they won't pull the trigger. Of course, others -- the momentum funds who never gave a darn about valuation -- are in it. They're in it in spades. Given that they're so trigger-happy that they'll sell stock the moment something looks askew, nobody good wants to join them.
Yet eBay is the true challenge to rigor here. It is the must-own that can't be owned, the best company of the quarter so far. It's both the scariest and the most exciting company out there.
What a dilemma! "
(in www.realmoney.com)
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