So where are the jobs? (artigo)
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So where are the jobs? (artigo)
Este artigo é bem claro no que se prometeu e no que se está a ver efectivamente no mercado laboral dos States... parece a tal coisa do "oásis" 8)
So where are the jobs?
Snow: Tax cuts as 'effective' as hoped
Commentary: 6 million more jobs promised, not delivered
By Rex Nutting, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 7:01 PM ET March 25, 2004
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Tax cuts that promised to spur job growth "were every bit as effective as we hoped they'd be," Treasury Secretary John Snow said Thursday, even though the pace of job growth remains disappointing.
"I'm very pleased with the direction of our economy today, and there is no doubt in my mind that we have President Bush's leadership on tax cuts to thank for a strong recovery from a very short recession," Snow said in a speech to the National Association for Business Economics. Read his remarks.
"When combined with low interest rates, the Bush tax cuts were every bit as effective as we hoped they'd be," Snow said.
In reality, the tax cut results have been very disappointing, at least in terms of job growth. The administration promised far more jobs than have been delivered. Those failed promises continue to haunt Bush as he runs for another term in the White House.
In 2002 after the first round of tax cuts were passed, the administration projected that the tax cuts would help create about 6 million more jobs by 2004.
Instead, the economy has lost about 700,000 jobs since that forecast was made.
In 2003, the administration proposed another round of tax cuts (the Jobs and Growth Act of 2003) and projected that they would help create about 5 million more jobs by 2004.
Instead, the economy has lost about 150,000 jobs since that forecast was made.
In early February, the administration projected job growth averaging slightly more than 300,000 a month for the rest of the year. In February, the economy added 21,000 jobs.
In the past six months, the U.S. economy has created just 364,000 jobs, according to the monthly payroll survey. That's far below the 150,000 or so needed each month just to stay even with population growth, but it is much better than the 2.6 million jobs lost between January 2001 and August 2003.
Snow told the economists that the separate and more optimistic household survey may be picking up entrepreneurial activity missed by the payroll survey. But most economists favor the payroll survey over the household survey. Read more about the "overblown flap" over the two surveys.
Earlier in the day, Federal Reserve Gov. Donald Kohn told the group that the household survey's unemployment rate "is not a good indicator of what's happening in the labor market."
Another top administration official also strongly defended the tax cuts, saying the job losses would have been much deeper without them.
"If the president had left the tax code unchanged, about 2.5 million fewer people would be working today," said N. Gregory Mankiw, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, in remarks to the economists' group.
Asked about his jobs forecast in the CEA's Economic Report of the President issued in February, Mankiw said stressed the 4.0 percent growth forecast and said more generally that "the labor market has already turned" the corner.
"The unemployment rate has come down from 6.3 to 5.6 (percent). We have created 360,000 jobs (over the past six months) according to the payroll survey, 980,000 according the household survey. So we are heading in the right direction," Mankiw said.
"When did things turn? It looks like they turned around this summer, shortly after the passage of the Jobs and Growth Act, so it looks like the Act had the effect that the president was looking for," Mankiw said.
Following a steep decline in the economy that began under President Clinton, Snow said the economy is now "in a strong recovery," growing at a 6.1 percent annual pace over the final six months of 2003, the fastest growth in 20 years.
"The president, the administration, while very happy with the strength and pace of economic growth, is not satisfied with the pace of job creation," Snow said.
"By sustaining this growth going forward, I am confident that we will see good jobs pick up in the months ahead," he said. Snow said private forecasts see job growth of about 150,000 to 200,000 a month through the end of 2004.
Those private forecasts are about half what the Bush administration was forecasting six weeks ago before they backed away from their rosy projections.
Snow hewed closely to the administration's political talking points in his remarks.
He blasted unnamed isolationists who want to "draw down the shades" against doing business with other countries. And Snow said Congress must rein in "frivolous" lawsuits that are a tremendous drag on the economy.
So where are the jobs?
Snow: Tax cuts as 'effective' as hoped
Commentary: 6 million more jobs promised, not delivered
By Rex Nutting, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 7:01 PM ET March 25, 2004
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Tax cuts that promised to spur job growth "were every bit as effective as we hoped they'd be," Treasury Secretary John Snow said Thursday, even though the pace of job growth remains disappointing.
"I'm very pleased with the direction of our economy today, and there is no doubt in my mind that we have President Bush's leadership on tax cuts to thank for a strong recovery from a very short recession," Snow said in a speech to the National Association for Business Economics. Read his remarks.
"When combined with low interest rates, the Bush tax cuts were every bit as effective as we hoped they'd be," Snow said.
In reality, the tax cut results have been very disappointing, at least in terms of job growth. The administration promised far more jobs than have been delivered. Those failed promises continue to haunt Bush as he runs for another term in the White House.
In 2002 after the first round of tax cuts were passed, the administration projected that the tax cuts would help create about 6 million more jobs by 2004.
Instead, the economy has lost about 700,000 jobs since that forecast was made.
In 2003, the administration proposed another round of tax cuts (the Jobs and Growth Act of 2003) and projected that they would help create about 5 million more jobs by 2004.
Instead, the economy has lost about 150,000 jobs since that forecast was made.
In early February, the administration projected job growth averaging slightly more than 300,000 a month for the rest of the year. In February, the economy added 21,000 jobs.
In the past six months, the U.S. economy has created just 364,000 jobs, according to the monthly payroll survey. That's far below the 150,000 or so needed each month just to stay even with population growth, but it is much better than the 2.6 million jobs lost between January 2001 and August 2003.
Snow told the economists that the separate and more optimistic household survey may be picking up entrepreneurial activity missed by the payroll survey. But most economists favor the payroll survey over the household survey. Read more about the "overblown flap" over the two surveys.
Earlier in the day, Federal Reserve Gov. Donald Kohn told the group that the household survey's unemployment rate "is not a good indicator of what's happening in the labor market."
Another top administration official also strongly defended the tax cuts, saying the job losses would have been much deeper without them.
"If the president had left the tax code unchanged, about 2.5 million fewer people would be working today," said N. Gregory Mankiw, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, in remarks to the economists' group.
Asked about his jobs forecast in the CEA's Economic Report of the President issued in February, Mankiw said stressed the 4.0 percent growth forecast and said more generally that "the labor market has already turned" the corner.
"The unemployment rate has come down from 6.3 to 5.6 (percent). We have created 360,000 jobs (over the past six months) according to the payroll survey, 980,000 according the household survey. So we are heading in the right direction," Mankiw said.
"When did things turn? It looks like they turned around this summer, shortly after the passage of the Jobs and Growth Act, so it looks like the Act had the effect that the president was looking for," Mankiw said.
Following a steep decline in the economy that began under President Clinton, Snow said the economy is now "in a strong recovery," growing at a 6.1 percent annual pace over the final six months of 2003, the fastest growth in 20 years.
"The president, the administration, while very happy with the strength and pace of economic growth, is not satisfied with the pace of job creation," Snow said.
"By sustaining this growth going forward, I am confident that we will see good jobs pick up in the months ahead," he said. Snow said private forecasts see job growth of about 150,000 to 200,000 a month through the end of 2004.
Those private forecasts are about half what the Bush administration was forecasting six weeks ago before they backed away from their rosy projections.
Snow hewed closely to the administration's political talking points in his remarks.
He blasted unnamed isolationists who want to "draw down the shades" against doing business with other countries. And Snow said Congress must rein in "frivolous" lawsuits that are a tremendous drag on the economy.
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