Alívio do IRS passa sem mexidas nos escalões

[Ulisses Pereira]

"Jobs Data Release: A Big, Bad Event"

By James J. Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
3/3/2004 9:27 AM EST


"Looks like we have a Big, Bad Event on our hands with this Friday employment number, so the BBE rules have to apply. Those rules say that nothing's going to happen of any import on any volume until we see the number.

Funny, the number wouldn't be worth that scrutiny if it weren't an election year. I think the political risk from the number is great, as is the Federal Reserve risk. Given that those are the loaded double-barrels we're facing, I don't know why anyone would want to do something big ahead of the number. I figure there will be enough people who will interpret negatively whatever number comes out that you will get a chance to do some buying at better levels.


It's a tough moment. A number that gives you little job growth would make Kerry's ratings shoot up. He is viewed as a negative for the market. I think he should be viewed as a negative given his stand on taxes and free trade. (This is a tough call because maybe we need higher taxes on some people, but the free-trade thing is just a plain old negative.) But that very same weak number would keep the Fed on hold, allowing us to continue to buy just about any stock that floats your boat.

A strong jobs number would be good for President Bush, but would imply an almost immediate tightening, which then would put the 1994 rules into play again: cyclicals and techs rule.

So, given that dynamic, in either situation let's say you wanted to buy a financial. By all means, wait until Friday because you probably can get it cheaper. If you wanted to buy a tech, you can't be assured lower prices on that risk-reward scenario I just traced out, so maybe you have to get some in, unless you have a negative read on the Intel (INTC:Nasdaq - commentary - research) quarterly update.

A similar calculus can be done on stocks like Caterpillar (CAT:NYSE - commentary - research) and Deere (DE:NYSE - commentary - research); they have a decent chance of going higher Friday.

Either way, I predict initial confusion on Friday morning, which will lead to more chances for opportunistic buying than we have now.


Now, here's the tricky part: Two or three hours after the Big, Bad Event is discounted in the market, unless it is disastrous -- if we get an immediate Fed tightening to the high side, immediate panic by Bush to the low side -- we most likely will resume the rally that started Monday but was shut off as people grew worried about the jobs data.

So, there's a window between the opening and midday Friday that could be the optimal time to buy.

What's the one risk to this scenario? That everyone loves the number that prints at 8:30 a.m. ET.

I think there is very, very little risk of that happening.

So, sideline yourself. "

(in www.realmoney.com)