Enviado: 1/5/2003 17:19Excelente comentário, comentador! 
Já agora, aproveito para deixar o comentário de ontem à noite do "ultra bear" Fleckenstein onde, a dada altura do artigo, alerta para os graves riscos que o dólar corre.
Um abraço,
Ulisses
"Dollar Anemia: An Unwelcome Omen"
By Bill Fleckenstein
Special to RealMoney.com
04/30/2003 06:04 PM EDT
"Cootie-Begone Buying: Last night, the foreign markets were pretty much a nonevent except for Asia, which bounced to the tune of 3%-ish on a SARS-relief rally. Our market saw a 0.5% dip at the opening, and then we ran straight up into the Chicago Purchasing Managers number. Because this is just an arm-waving guess, I thought the number would be higher, but it printed less than expected, and below last month. Tomorrow we'll get to see the national version of the same thing, i.e., the ISM number.
In any case, the statistic produced a momentary selloff, and then the market continued its surge, such that a couple hours into the day, we were up fractionally across the board. SOX stocks were the sole area of weakness, I suspect, due to what Ingram Micro had to say (more about that in a minute). After the early-morning surge, the market backed off a bit, then spent most of the day grinding higher until about 10 minutes before the close, when we saw a pretty steep selloff that left us with the prices posted in the box scores.
No Victory Garland for Greenback: Away from stocks is where the big news was, once again, as the euro exploded to yet another new high. To repeat my comments from the speech I shared yesterday, I have been just stunned at how pathetic the dollar has rallied on the back of the Iraq war victory. Almost everything that I would have expected to happen as a result of the war did: Stocks rallied, oil tanked, and people's attitudes changed, to a large degree. But the dollar has turned in one of the limpest performances that I can ever remember, revolving around a big event like this.
I do believe it's an ominous signal for potential dollar problems down the road, though it seems that no one really cares yet. What I have noticed is a fair amount of chatter about the benefits of a declining dollar, because it allows multinationals to be more profitable. I have warned in the past that this line of logic would develop, and I can assure you that before this is all through, it will come to be seen as erroneous thinking.
I remember vividly how the dollar was getting splattered in early 1987, after having been weak in 1986. It took eight months, but eventually this was a catalyst for the stock market crash of 1987, though one of the reasons for the size of the dislocation had to do with portfolio insurance. Even though portfolio insurance no longer exists, a dollar crisis could precipitate a crash like we saw in 1987, due to the fact that we now have many more derivatives, and in many different markets. In any case, I continue to believe that the dollar's anemic rally on the back of the war, as well as its subsequent re-breakdown, are signs of big trouble to come, and sooner rather than later, though sooner may mean three to six months, rather than three to six days.
Shrinking IM Buddy List: Now for some thoughts on the news from Ingram Micro, the world's largest reseller and distributor of PCs. Last night, the company lowered its second-quarter revenue guidance by about 10%, though, according to its estimates, that will affect its earnings by about three to four times that amount, i.e., 30% to 40%. It specifically referred to problems in North America, in the month of April (when a lot of angst about the war was already behind us). This is a function of what my IT emailer had to say on Monday , and the fact that consumers are (a) sated in technology, and (b) not in a particularly good position to go on a buying spree. So, it's not surprising that Ingram Micro has had trouble, and today, that stock was hammered for about 15% on the news.
Tech Data, a related company, was also hit for about 10%, though CDW Computer Centers was down only about 5%, as delusions about that company's business continue to exist. Soon, I expect that CDWC will run into the same kind of problems that Ingram Micro is experiencing. (I am not short CDWC at the moment.) In any case, that news seemed to weigh on the chip sector in the early going, though given the run that these stocks have had, I thought that the damage was pretty modest.
Intel Megahertz So Bad: To more clearly demonstrate the problem that technology is up against -- the fact that the new and improved horsepower for lots of these products doesn't necessarily drive demand -- I would like to share an email from a regular reader who happens to work at none other than Intel. Adding to the comments from our IT emailer, he reveals that the company that extols the virtues of increased horsepower to the marketplace doesn't actually pony up the money for that at its own place:
"I would add, anecdotally, that here at INTC, the company who wants everyone and their uncle to upgrade their whole fleet of computers at least once every three years (preferably more often, thank you), we (more than just little old me) cannot get laptop upgrades. Period. I got a lovely IBM ThinkPad, circa 1998, with a 450-MHz P3 processor. I am lucky, as there are several guys who still have 366-Mhz machines.
"I guess this would be cool if I was some [guy] in the warehouse filling orders, but I am an engineer working on the next gen. processor due out in, say, six months. So, if this profitable behemoth will not fork over ~$2K/head for their engineers on 'one generation ahead' products, why does everyone think there is going to be a mad rush for other less well-heeled co.'s to upgrade?" I guess that should be filed in the "Watch what they do, not what say" department.
Of Disguise and Demise: Turning to the closing-caveat department, I expected there would be a war-related rally and a relief rally, and that much of what I expected to be said is being said. I would like to warn people once again that this is just a rally in a bear market. Though it can continue for a while longer, its ultimate demise is not in question. Folks who are participating in the rally are certainly playing with fire, because this is all going to end in a debacle. "
(in www.realmoney.com)
Já agora, aproveito para deixar o comentário de ontem à noite do "ultra bear" Fleckenstein onde, a dada altura do artigo, alerta para os graves riscos que o dólar corre.
Um abraço,
Ulisses
"Dollar Anemia: An Unwelcome Omen"
By Bill Fleckenstein
Special to RealMoney.com
04/30/2003 06:04 PM EDT
"Cootie-Begone Buying: Last night, the foreign markets were pretty much a nonevent except for Asia, which bounced to the tune of 3%-ish on a SARS-relief rally. Our market saw a 0.5% dip at the opening, and then we ran straight up into the Chicago Purchasing Managers number. Because this is just an arm-waving guess, I thought the number would be higher, but it printed less than expected, and below last month. Tomorrow we'll get to see the national version of the same thing, i.e., the ISM number.
In any case, the statistic produced a momentary selloff, and then the market continued its surge, such that a couple hours into the day, we were up fractionally across the board. SOX stocks were the sole area of weakness, I suspect, due to what Ingram Micro had to say (more about that in a minute). After the early-morning surge, the market backed off a bit, then spent most of the day grinding higher until about 10 minutes before the close, when we saw a pretty steep selloff that left us with the prices posted in the box scores.
No Victory Garland for Greenback: Away from stocks is where the big news was, once again, as the euro exploded to yet another new high. To repeat my comments from the speech I shared yesterday, I have been just stunned at how pathetic the dollar has rallied on the back of the Iraq war victory. Almost everything that I would have expected to happen as a result of the war did: Stocks rallied, oil tanked, and people's attitudes changed, to a large degree. But the dollar has turned in one of the limpest performances that I can ever remember, revolving around a big event like this.
I do believe it's an ominous signal for potential dollar problems down the road, though it seems that no one really cares yet. What I have noticed is a fair amount of chatter about the benefits of a declining dollar, because it allows multinationals to be more profitable. I have warned in the past that this line of logic would develop, and I can assure you that before this is all through, it will come to be seen as erroneous thinking.
I remember vividly how the dollar was getting splattered in early 1987, after having been weak in 1986. It took eight months, but eventually this was a catalyst for the stock market crash of 1987, though one of the reasons for the size of the dislocation had to do with portfolio insurance. Even though portfolio insurance no longer exists, a dollar crisis could precipitate a crash like we saw in 1987, due to the fact that we now have many more derivatives, and in many different markets. In any case, I continue to believe that the dollar's anemic rally on the back of the war, as well as its subsequent re-breakdown, are signs of big trouble to come, and sooner rather than later, though sooner may mean three to six months, rather than three to six days.
Shrinking IM Buddy List: Now for some thoughts on the news from Ingram Micro, the world's largest reseller and distributor of PCs. Last night, the company lowered its second-quarter revenue guidance by about 10%, though, according to its estimates, that will affect its earnings by about three to four times that amount, i.e., 30% to 40%. It specifically referred to problems in North America, in the month of April (when a lot of angst about the war was already behind us). This is a function of what my IT emailer had to say on Monday , and the fact that consumers are (a) sated in technology, and (b) not in a particularly good position to go on a buying spree. So, it's not surprising that Ingram Micro has had trouble, and today, that stock was hammered for about 15% on the news.
Tech Data, a related company, was also hit for about 10%, though CDW Computer Centers was down only about 5%, as delusions about that company's business continue to exist. Soon, I expect that CDWC will run into the same kind of problems that Ingram Micro is experiencing. (I am not short CDWC at the moment.) In any case, that news seemed to weigh on the chip sector in the early going, though given the run that these stocks have had, I thought that the damage was pretty modest.
Intel Megahertz So Bad: To more clearly demonstrate the problem that technology is up against -- the fact that the new and improved horsepower for lots of these products doesn't necessarily drive demand -- I would like to share an email from a regular reader who happens to work at none other than Intel. Adding to the comments from our IT emailer, he reveals that the company that extols the virtues of increased horsepower to the marketplace doesn't actually pony up the money for that at its own place:
"I would add, anecdotally, that here at INTC, the company who wants everyone and their uncle to upgrade their whole fleet of computers at least once every three years (preferably more often, thank you), we (more than just little old me) cannot get laptop upgrades. Period. I got a lovely IBM ThinkPad, circa 1998, with a 450-MHz P3 processor. I am lucky, as there are several guys who still have 366-Mhz machines.
"I guess this would be cool if I was some [guy] in the warehouse filling orders, but I am an engineer working on the next gen. processor due out in, say, six months. So, if this profitable behemoth will not fork over ~$2K/head for their engineers on 'one generation ahead' products, why does everyone think there is going to be a mad rush for other less well-heeled co.'s to upgrade?" I guess that should be filed in the "Watch what they do, not what say" department.
Of Disguise and Demise: Turning to the closing-caveat department, I expected there would be a war-related rally and a relief rally, and that much of what I expected to be said is being said. I would like to warn people once again that this is just a rally in a bear market. Though it can continue for a while longer, its ultimate demise is not in question. Folks who are participating in the rally are certainly playing with fire, because this is all going to end in a debacle. "
(in www.realmoney.com)