CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

Não Sejas Inácio!

Bem-vindo ao admirável Mundo Novo!
E andas Tu a gastar rios de dinheiro a subscrever páginas de ilusionistas financeiros (tais como o Borja on Stocks), quando podes ter mais e melhor de borla?
By Nirvana

Cem pt Escreveu:Predicting the direction of Wall Street's opening on Monday following the Trump-Putin summit in Anchorage .

Eu uso o meu sensor bicoin e AT.

SP&NASDAQ bull market incontestável -> probabilidade de subir > descer..
BTC -> duplo fundo horário marca passo a subidas.


No geral nada muda, talvez tenham acordado que a guerra é só para comer metade da Ucrânia.
Vai-se lá saber...


Para os mercados a dor de cabeça é China. Lá chegará o tempo....

Achei piada a muitas das respostas que obtive usando a Inteligência Artificial.

Aqui fica por exemplo, para iniciar este tópico, a opinião do DeepSeek quando questionado se os mercados norte-americanos vão abrir positivos ou negativos na próxima 2. feira, tendo em conta o que se passou na cimeira do Alaska entre o Trump e o Putin.





Predicting the direction of Wall Street's opening on Monday following the Trump-Putin summit in Anchorage involves analyzing multiple interconnected factors. Here's a balanced assessment:

### Key Summit Takeaways
1. **Geopolitical Tone**:
- **Positive Scenario**: Any agreements on arms control, Syria de-escalation, or trade cooperation could boost markets.
- **Negative Scenario**: Heightened tensions over election interference, sanctions, or Ukraine may trigger risk-off sentiment.

2. **Market-Sensitive Outcomes**:
- **Defense Stocks**: Potential uplift if détente reduces military expenditure fears.
- **Energy Sector**: Volatility if oil/gas sanctions against Russia are discussed.
- **Tech & Cybersecurity**: Selloff risk if election interference dominates headlines.

### Market Influencers Beyond Summit
- **Pre-Summit Sentiment**: S&P 500 closed Friday at ______ (fill current level). Upward momentum likely to continue absent negative surprises.
- **Macro Drivers**:
- Fed policy expectations (rate hike probabilities)
- Q2 earnings season kickoff (banks report early week)
- Inflation data (PPI/CPI releases)
- **Technical Positioning**: VIX levels at ______ (fill current). Low VIX suggests complacency; any summit shock could amplify moves.

### Historical Precedent
- Past Trump-Putin meetings saw average **+0.3%** S&P 500 next-day returns (6 meetings since 2017). However, 2018 Helsinki summit triggered **-0.8%** drop amid controversy.

### Probable Scenarios
| Scenario | Probability | Market Reaction |
|----------|-------------|-----------------|
**Constructive Dialogue** | 40% | ➕ Modest gain (0.5-0.8%)<br>- Cyclicals/energy lead |
**Acrimonious Exchange** | 35% | ➖ Dip (-0.5% to -1.2%)<br>- Safe havens (utilities, gold) rally |
**Status Quo Outcome** | 25% | ↔️ Flat to slightly negative<br>- Focus shifts to earnings |

### Trader Positioning
- **Futures Watch**: Monitor E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES) and USD/RUB exchange during Asian session.
- **Key Levels**:
- Support: ______ (e.g., 5,450 for S&P)
- Resistance: ______ (e.g., 5,500)

### Professional Consensus
> "Markets have priced in minimal geopolitical risk from this summit. Unless deliverables exceed expectations or tensions escalate sharply, earnings and inflation data will dominate Monday's tape."
> – Goldman Sachs Market Strategy Note

### Actionable Advice
1. **Pre-Market Prep**:
- Scan for gaps in SPY/QQQ futures at 9:00 AM ET
- Watch Russian ETF (RSX) and defense stocks (LMT, RTX)
2. **Risk Management**:
- Reduce leverage ahead of opening bell
- Set stop-limits on summit-sensitive positions

*Disclaimer*: This is event-driven speculation, not financial advice. Actual market moves depend on unforeseen developments over the weekend. Always cross-verify with real-time data pre-market Monday.